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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 25,
2020
Nifty
look
-
(
20457
)
Looking at yesterday's gap down opening, market seem to have
deceived traders on Wednesday by giving a smart recovery in the
last hour to defend the 21000 mark on a closing basis for
BANKNIFTY. Post the weak opening, index kept grinding lower
and in the latter half, it just nosedived to conclude yet another
day with a sharp cut over three percent.
Although, BANKNIFTY reclaimed 21000 on Wednesday, we
continued with our bearish stance and expected it to be
breached soon. In fact, it didn't take much time as we witnessed a
gap down opening below this crucial point. At the mid session,
there was some hint of a bounce back, but it turned out to be a
feeble one. The selling augmented to breach important supports
one by one. With yesterday's fall, 20700-21000 has become a
sturdy wall and any rebound towards it, is likely to get sold into.
On the lower side, soon we expect banking index to slide
towards 20200-20000. We continue to remain bearish but we
would like to highlight that the market is deeply oversold now
and hence, it would not be easy to create short positions at
current levels. Momentum traders are advised to stay light and
should avoid aggressive bets in either directions as we expect
some wild swings to take place on both sides during the day.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 20200 Resistance 1 – 20700
Support 2 – 20000 Resistance 2 – 21000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (36554) / Nifty (10806)
The negative global cues weighed down heavily on our markets
yesterday as the Nifty opened gap down and then corrected
throughout the day to end with a loss of almost 3 percent.
It was one of the worst expiry day for our markets in the recent past
as the indices corrected sharply along with the broader market.
There was no respite for any of the index as all the sectors,
including the recent out performers took a sharp knock. The index
has already been in a corrective phase since the start of this month
and Nifty has breached its supports one after another. Nifty has
now approached its ‘200 DMA’ around 10760 which is another
important support. However, as of now there are no positive signs
and hence, we continue with our cautious approach on the markets.
There could be some pullback from here as we have approached
the ‘200 DMA’ which coincides with some important retracement
levels as well. However, markets are likely to face selling pressure
on pullback moves and hence, one should avoid any aggressive
contra trades. The ‘Dollar Index’ which we had recently highlighted
for its breakout has moved higher which too is not good for the
equity markets.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The immediate support for Nifty is placed in the range of 10800-
10750 followed by 10670, whereas 11000-11100 will be seen as
resistance on pullback moves. Thus, we continue with our advice
for traders to stay light and avoid overnight positions.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 10750 Resistance 1 – 10900
Support 2 – 10670 Resistance2 – 10980
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 25, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10400
10600
10800
11000
11200
11400
11600
11800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/1 9/3 9/7 9/9 9/11 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/24
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
We began the expiry day with an downside gap and
saw follow-up seller during the later part of the
session. The fall was so immense that any bounce was
being sold into; eventually, we concluded the day with
a cut of 326 points .
FIIs continued their selling streak in cash market
segment, they sold to the tune of Rs. 1886 crores. In
index futures, they were net sellers of worth Rs. 1799
crores with significant fall in open interest, due to
expiry.
Despite Nifty corrected more than 6% in the
September series, we hardly saw any relevant shorts in
Futures. Rollover in Nifty stood at 71%; which is below
the averages. The banking index underperformed and
concluded last series 13% lower. We saw huge shorts
during the series and these position have been rolled
too. FIIs were sellers in index futures and they have
also rolled over few of these short and also
unwounded the longs. This has resulted in their ‘Long
short Ratio’ plunging to 44%. The above rollover data
remain unencouraging and hence we would advised
traders to stay light and wait for any relevant change
in F&O space.
C
o
m
me
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 23.31%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
20.33% as market closed at 10805.55 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 30.65
point against a premium of 31.60 point in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
50.65 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 20.99 to 23.51.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
1.03 to 1.11.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are IBULHSGFIN, BALKRISIND, ASHOKLEY,
COFORGE and MRF.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MUTHOOTFIN 4110750 63.86 1018.75 -2.58
SHREECEM 185400 51.72 18341.90 -2.93
TATACONSUM 16958700 43.27 488.65 -1.43
TATASTEEL 25889300 42.87 343.90 -4.93
POWERGRID 15596000 42.25 159.35 -2.82
INFRATEL 16441600 36.05 169.10 3.10
COALINDIA 43419500 33.26 115.70 -4.12
ITC 130816000 28.61 166.55 -3.66
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HINDUNILVR 6536700 -49.65 2060.90 0.11
IBULHSGFIN 9628600 -43.60 138.80 -9.54
VOLTAS 1752000 -30.75 650.05 -2.71
TCS 6651000 -29.30 2332.25 -5.37
PVR 1413918 -24.03 1061.75 -4.45
BATAINDIA 1497650 -22.55 1298.95 -3.45
ASIANPAINT 2264400 -21.98 1918.35 -1.47
AMARAJABAT 826000 -21.41 710.75 -2.06
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.11 0.80
BANKNIFTY 0.59 0.57
RELIANCE 0.64 0.52
ICICIBANK 0.80 0.70
INFY 0.50 0.56
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
TCS 39.91
APOLLOHOSP 54.65
IOC 42.92
M&M 51.76
INDIGO 55.99
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 25, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10805.55
FII Statistics for September 24, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
6432.25 8231.53 (1799.28) 85178 6035.06 (44.04)
INDEX
OPTIONS
333326.19 330416.71 2909.48
628493 47625.00 (36.16)
STOCK
FUTURES
25434.04 24940.37 493.67
1110679 72002.65 (5.52)
STOCK
OPTIONS
2554.50 2409.71 144.79
22379 1466.70 (70.09)
Total 367746.98
365998.32
1748.66
1846729
127129.41
(22.64)
Turnover on September 24, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,31,372 48482.10 13.00
Index Options
6,38,21,928 40,67,226.51 77.40
Stock Futures 14,95,553 1,04,648.34 -7.34
Stock Options
10,52,488 82209.49 -27.00
Total 6,71,01,341 43,02,566.44 68.00
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10800 314.85
53.10 46.90 10853.10
Sell 10900 261.75
Buy 10800 314.85
102.00 98.00 10902.00
Sell 11000 212.85
Buy 10900 261.75
48.90 51.10 10948.90
Sell 11000 212.85
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10800 279.10
41.15 58.85 10758.85
Sell 10700 237.95
Buy 10800 279.10
77.30 122.70 10722.70
Sell 10600 201.80
Buy 10700 237.95
36.15 63.85 10663.85
Sell 10600 201.80
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 25, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
305
310
316
320
327
ASIANPAINT 1,886 1,902
1,924
1,940
1,961
AXISBANK
393
398
406
411
419
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,860 2,896
2,949
2,985
3,038
BAJFINANCE 2,889 2,959
3,077
3,147
3,265
BAJAJFINSV 5,275 5,350
5,475
5,550
5,675
BPCL
369
373
380
384
390
BHARTIARTL
406
412
423
430
440
INFRATEL
156
162
169
176
182
BRITANNIA 3,515 3,564
3,609
3,658
3,704
CIPLA
707
720
743
757
780
COALINDIA
111
114
117
119
123
DRREDDY 4,877 4,952
5,078
5,153
5,278
EICHERMOT 1,989 2,012
2,045
2,068
2,101
GAIL
80
81
83
85
87
GRASIM
651
665
690
705
730
HCLTECH
767
778
795
805
822
HDFCBANK 1,012 1,021
1,034
1,043
1,056
HDFC
569
573
577
581
585
HEROMOTOCO 1,607 1,622
1,638
1,653
1,669
HINDALCO 2,873 2,896
2,922
2,945
2,971
HINDUNILVR
151
155
159
163
167
ICICIBANK 2,013 2,037
2,059
2,083
2,105
IOC
326
331
339
344
352
INDUSINDBK
69
71
73
74
77
INFY
464
477
498
511
532
ITC
946
961
985
1,000
1,024
JSW STEEL
163
165
168
170
174
KOTAKBANK
253
256
260
263
268
LT 1,207 1,226
1,256
1,275
1,305
M&M
834
843
851
859
868
MARUTI
544
560
583
599
622
NESTLEIND 6,135 6,216
6,352
6,433
6,568
NTPC 15,027
15,143
15,291
15,406
15,554
ONGC
80
81
83
85
87
POWERGRID
65
66
67
68
68
RELIANCE
154
157
161
163
168
SHREECEM 2,144 2,163
2,194
2,213
2,244
SBIN 17,794
18,068
18,457
18,731
19,121
SUNPHARMA
172
174
178
180
184
TCS
472
479
490
497
508
TATAMOTORS 2,214 2,273
2,362
2,421
2,509
TATASTEEL
118
120
125
127
131
TECHM
333
339
348
353
362
TITAN
722
737
762
777
803
ULTRACEMCO 1,057 1,077
1,095
1,115
1,133
UPL 3,685 3,731
3,800
3,847
3,916
VEDANTA
488
496
511
520
534
WIPRO
296
300
307
311
318
ZEEL
177
184
190
196
203
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 25, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical & Derivatives Queries E-mail: technicalresearc[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com