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February 25, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
36452)
The bank nifty aswell started on a positive note and crept higher
during the first half however post the mid-break due to technical
glitch at NSE the bank nifty again started on a positive note and
then witnessed a sharp spurt during the last hour to eventually end
with gains of 3.80% at 36452.
In our last two outlook's we had clearly mentioned that the bank
index is on the support of 20SMA i.e. around 35000 and with
yesterday's upmove the prices have now bounced from the
support to engulf the last two sessions candle. Now the move
today’s session i.e. F&O expiry will be crucial to understand
whether the move was genuine or misleading due to the technical
glitch. For today's session we sense, the bank nifty will have to
remain with its yesterday’s positive structure to resume its recent
uptrend however in case the bank nifty slips below 36000 then one
can say that the correction can continue. On the higher side, 36660
and 37100 will be seen as immediate resistance. Volatility is likely
to increase and hence traders are advised to avoid aggressive bets
and to have a proper exit setup to existing trades.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 36000 Resistance 1 – 36660
Support 2 – 35780 Resistance 2 – 37100
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (50782) / Nifty (14982)
We had a flat to positive start yesterday and despite global cues were
unfavourable in the morning, our markets managed to extend gains
towards 14800 in the initial hour. However, all of a sudden, the
trading halted on NSE at 11.40 am due to some technical snag. It
was very unusual and things worsened when it lasted for few hours
without any clear intimation on further proceedings. This created
havoc among the traders’ fraternity because everyone was clueless
about their outstanding intraday positions. Fortunately, the trading
resumed around 3.45 pm as an exceptional case for a short period.
Although it almost opened around the same levels, we witnessed a
complete gush in the second half of the truncated session. Before
anyone could realise, Nifty just hastened towards the 15000 mark.
In last twelve months, we have already seen lot of unprecedented
things and yesterday’s session certainly can be added to this tally.
Honestly speaking, yesterday’s late surge has completely surprised
us and has dented our recent cautious stance a bit. Let see how
things pan out in the coming session. If Nifty manages to surpass
15080 – 15220, we may see Nifty resuming its higher degree
uptrend in the following days. On the flipside, a failure to do so will
lead to retesting of 14900 14800 levels. We would like to stay
neutral while stepping into the important monthly expiry session and
would focus on further proceedings to gauge the next action.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Undoubtedly, the banking had a short but sweet session yesterday
as we saw BANKNIFTY just exploding in few minutes. Hence, the next
path of action for our benchmark would be decided by its movement
only. Almost all other pockets were muted while we were seeing a
sharp surge in the financial space. Let’s see what market has to offer
on the monthly expiry day.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14900 Resistance 1 – 15080
Support 2 – 14800 Resistance2 – 15220
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February 25, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
116,000
118,000
120,000
122,000
124,000
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
2/9 2/12 2/17 2/19 2/23
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Nifty traded with a positive bias before NSE halted
trading due to technical glitch. Post the uncertainty when
the market re-opened, we saw a sharp upmove in the
market led by the banking space and the index ended tad
below the 15000 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune of
28739 (including BOSCH deal) crores. In Index Future
segment they bought worth 443 crores with increase in
open interest indicating long formaitons in yesterday’s
session
.
During most part of the week, we had seen call writing in
14800-15000 strikes. Post the market re-opening in the
evening, the indices saw a sharp upmove and hence, the
writers began to square off their positions. In the
recent fall, we have not seen any short formations in the
index futures and yesterday we witnessed long
formations in Bank Nifty which led to its outperformance.
FII's have a net 'Long Short Ratio' at 64 percent and
looking at the above data, we could see some long
rollover today while the option writers could continue to
cover their shorts. Hence, traders are advised to trade
with a positive bias on the expiry day and look for stock
specific opportunities from the banking and financial
space. The support for Nifty is placed around 14900 while
on the higher side, 15150-15200 would be the range to
watch out for.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.84%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.56%
as market closed at 14982 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 11.75
point against a premium of 3.75 point in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 55.55
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 25.22 to 24.16.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.06
to 1.36.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are SHREECEM, GODREJPROP, KOTAKBANK,
SRTRANSFIN, AND ADANIPORTS.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SAIL 122759000 30.58 71.45 1.20
IDEA 1026060000 18.32 11.45 3.62
RECLTD 17826000 11.73 138.25 -1.39
TORNTPOWER 3891000 7.63 368.85 -0.53
SIEMENS 796950 7.41 1902.80 1.77
CUMMINSIND 1867200 7.02 793.30 -1.35
PFC 41502800 6.44 124.40 1.97
BANKBARODA 103662000 6.22 88.40 2.67
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHOLAFIN 7200000 -15.84 504.60 -2.04
BHEL 103761000 -11.94 42.95 5.13
TVSMOTOR 4848200 -11.00 599.95 0.16
FEDERALBNK 85890000 -10.77 84.70 4.11
JUBLFOOD 1574500 -10.14 3072.00 -3.61
BATAINDIA 1869450 -8.26 1476.15 0.07
POWERGRID 18576000 -8.20 222.75 -1.55
APOLLOTYRE 16750000 -7.89 238.90 3.92
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.36 0.87
BANKNIFTY 1.19 0.76
RELIANCE 0.51 0.46
ICICIBANK 0.72 0.39
INFY 0.54 0.42
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
COALINDIA 41.19
HDFCBANK 39.33
INDIGO 52.90
JUBLFOOD 48.99
CONCOR 50.32
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 25, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14982.00
FII Statistics for February 24, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
6551.45
6108.23
443.22
144721
15511.55
8.90
INDEX
OPTIONS
290922.47
292628.53
(1706.06) 1151482
122438.40
2.28
STOCK
FUTURES
21262.09
21583.68
(321.59) 1244756
107628.70
(1.22)
STOCK
OPTIONS
8629.27
8483.38
145.89
180252
15853.21
(5.94)
Total 327365.28
328803.82
(1438.54) 2721211
261431.86
0.39
Turnover on February 24, 2020
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,67,129 46166.14 -9.70
Index Options 2,88,90,895
28,15,894.65 -21.91
Stock Futures 11,16,876
1,01,548.45 -34.53
Stock Options 10,98,797
1,04,233.28 -52.63
Total 3,15,73,697
30,67,842.52 -23.91
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15000 65.65
38.15 61.85 15038.15
Sell 15100 27.50
Buy 15000 65.65
54.90 145.10 15054.90
Sell 15200 10.75
Buy 15100 27.50
16.75 83.25 15116.75
Sell 15200 10.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15000 67.40
35.40 64.60 14964.60
Sell 14900 32.00
Buy 15000 67.40
50.15 149.85 14949.85
Sell 14800 17.25
Buy 14900 32.00
14.75 85.25 14885.25
Sell 14800 17.25
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 25, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
646
655
663
673
681
ASIANPAINT 2,310 2,336
2,373
2,398
2,435
AXISBANK
703
726
740
764
778
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,818 3,875
3,912
3,969
4,007
BAJFINANCE 5,312 5,438
5,508
5,634
5,704
BAJAJFINSV 9,920
10,060
10,155
10,295
10,390
BPCL
431
435
440
444
449
BHARTIARTL
562
567
571
576
580
BRITANNIA 3,313 3,359
3,387
3,433
3,461
CIPLA
766
778
788
799
810
COALINDIA
137
141
143
146
148
DIVISLAB 3,370 3,425
3,467
3,522
3,565
DRREDDY 4,299 4,367
4,445
4,514
4,592
EICHERMOT 2,470 2,503
2,533
2,566
2,596
GAIL
141
144
146
149
151
GRASIM 1,220 1,235
1,246
1,261
1,272
HCLTECH
900
908
914
922
928
HDFCBANK 1,481 1,544
1,579
1,642
1,677
HDFCLIFE
688
703
712
728
737
HDFC 2,567 2,638
2,680
2,750
2,793
HEROMOTOCO 3,282 3,362
3,431
3,511
3,580
HINDALCO
323
328
333
338
342
HINDUNILVR 2,141 2,160
2,174
2,193
2,207
ICICIBANK
604
622
634
652
664
IOC
95
97
98
100
101
INDUSINDBK 1,028 1,049
1,062
1,08
4
1,097
INFY 1,243 1,259
1,268
1,283
1,292
ITC
205
207
208
210
212
JSW STEEL
385
397
412
423
438
KOTAKBANK 1,824 1,868
1,896
1,939
1,968
LT 1,470 1,498
1,515
1,544
1,560
M&M
833
841
849
857
864
MARUTI 6,797 6,875
6,955
7,033
7,114
NESTLEIND 15,997
16,171
16,275
16,449
16,553
NTPC
101
102
103
105
106
ONGC
109
111
113
116
118
POWERGRID
218
220
224
227
231
RELIANCE 2,012 2,036
2,051
2,075
2,090
SBILIFE
844
858
867
881
890
SHREECEM 25,951
26,752
27,301
28,102
28,651
SBIN
389
397
404
413
419
SUNPHARMA
589
595
602
609
616
TCS 2,875 2,912
2,958
2,994
3,040
TATAMOTORS
309
315
323
329
336
TATASTEEL
706
717
731
742
756
TECHM
926
943
954
970
981
TITAN 1,400 1,426
1,450
1,476
1,500
ULTRACEMCO 6,118 6,266
6,358
6,506
6,598
UPL
535
544
556
565
577
WIPRO
410
417
421
428
432
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 25, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearc[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]oking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives [email protected]gelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com