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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 24, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (16918)
Bank Nifty as well started with a gap down opening and without
any meaningful bounce continued to remain underpressure
throughout the day to end with a massive cuts of around 17%
tad below 17000 levels.
During the day, we witnessed a broad base sharp sell off in
the stocks from the banking basket. We have seen a vertical
fall in the last few weeks and the volatility remains high.
Traders are advised to avoid leveraged and aggressive
positions until we see some cool down in volatility. As far as
levels are concerned, we are witnessing sharp moves and
hence we refrain for giving the same.
Key Levels
Support 1 – Resistance 1 –
Support 2 – Resistance 2 –
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (
25981)
/ Nifty
(
7610
)
This is clearly one of the worst phases the whole world is
undergoing at present. Not only in terms of financials or
economies but also in terms of health crisis. This uncertainty due
to coronavirus pandemic is weighing down heavily on markets
across the globe and it was yet another day of carnage for Indian
markets. We opened significantly lower and after initial trades
locked into a lower circuit for the second time in last 7 sessions.
Unlike the previous circuit day, yesterday we didn’t even see a
mild recovery; in fact the selling augmented to conclude yet
another terrible day with a cut of 13%.
On Friday, we had a stellar bounce back and looked like markets
are going to extend the bounce back. But as we all know, since
last few days more than anything, market is reacting only on
developments with respect to the pandemic. Over the weekend,
things worsened globally as well as on domestic front. Hence,
yesterday’s massive fall was a reaction to this development. We
reiterate in such type of environment, no analysis works and
rather than focusing on conventional theories of stock market,
it’s better to keep a close eye on how things pan out with
respect to the pandemic. As far as levels are concerned, 8000
now becomes a crucial hurdle. Since we are trading at multi year
lows and no support is being respected, we refrain from
mentioning levels as the number is decided on the next course
of action.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Since last few days we have been mentioning how India VIX
has zoomed to elevated levels and till the time it does not
cool off, the mayhem is likely to continue. We hope that this
health crisis subside soon for the betterment of mankind and
economies. Until then we must give priority to our health
rather than wealth.
Key Levels
Support 1 – Resistance 1 – 8000
Support 2 – Resistance 2 –
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 24, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
3/5 3/6 3/9 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/16 3/17 3/18 3/19 3/20 3/23
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iews
Nifty started the week with a big gap down opening
and with strong selloff throughout the session ended
with deep cuts of 13% tad above 7600 levels
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 2989 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 737 crores with decent decrease in open
interest indicating unwinding of long as well as short
positions in yesterday’s session.
FII's continued their selling streak in the cash
segment and they sold equities worth tad less than
3000 crores yesterday. In this calendar month so far,
they have sold equities worth more than 51000
crores which has mainly been the reason of such
sharp downmove. In index futures, they squared off
some of their longs as well as short positions
yesterday. As mentioned in recent past as well, FII's
sellling in cash market and the rising volatility levels
(India VIX) have been the lead indicators and still
there's no respite on both the indicators. Hence, we
continue with our advice for traders to stay light on
positions.
Co
m
ment
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 14.22%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.89%
as market closed at 7610.25 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a discount of 6.65
points against a discount of 22.35 points in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 5 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 67.10 to 71.98.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.19 to 1.03.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JUSTDIAL, BOSCHLTD, PVR, IDEA and
ADANIPORTS.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HCLTECH 21924000 4.79 417.15 -6.47
TATACHEM 1503000 4.38 200.75 -12.29
BALKRISIND 1141600 3.93 701.05 -14.50
BHARATFORG 7228000 3.69 245.75 -18.27
MGL 1684800 3.54 699.55 -11.58
PEL 3060336 2.96 644.15 -6.24
BAJAJ-AUTO 1617000 1.24 1935.60 -13.73
UPL 15303600 0.83 254.65 -15.25
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS 2231900 -34.88 550.80 -19.25
IDEA 383572000 -32.70 3.15 -7.25
IBULHSGFIN 13353600 -28.69 96.25 5.48
PVR 2747600 -26.53 1213.85 -1.60
NCC 23697000 -26.35 18.85 -14.48
YESBANK 88695200 -23.62 39.75 -11.25
PNB 62208500 -23.54 35.40 -6.71
TORNTPHARM 252000 -21.98 1796.15 -5.50
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.03 0.61
BANKNIFTY 0.38 0.30
RELIANCE 0.35 0.99
ICICIBANK 0.34 0.52
INFY 0.54 1.08
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CHOLAFIN 183.06
AXISBANK 178.90
MFSL 192.69
BAJAJFINSV 167.24
M&MFIN 188.46
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 24, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
7610.25
FII Statistics for March 23, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6732.84
5996.17
736.67
250160
13113.36
(13.49)
INDEX
OPTIONS
41069.68
41521.72
(452.04) 927864
50403.00
(1.66)
STOCK
FUTURES
20021.78
20784.36
(762.58) 1483284
61194.10
(0.61)
STOCK
OPTIONS
736.65
711.55
25.10
77394
3217.24
(3.35)
Total 68560.95
69013.80
(452.85) 2738702
127927.70
(2.37)
Turnover on March 23, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 6,07,162 30143.20 -46.85
Index Options 55,52,924 3,12,926.37 -39.35
Stock Futures 12,73,086 53275.90 -20.83
Stock Options 4,09,230 20472.25 -45.93
Total 78,42,402 4,16,817.72 -38.51
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 7600 360.10
52.25 47.75 7652.25
Sell 7700 307.85
Buy 7600 360.10
101.00 99.00 7701.00
Sell 7800 259.10
Buy 7700 307.85
48.75 51.25 7748.75
Sell 7800 259.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 7600 377.40
49.60 50.40 7550.40
Sell 7500 327.80
Buy 7600 377.40
85.65 114.35 7514.35
Sell 7400 291.75
Buy 7500 327.80
36.05 63.95 7463.95
Sell 7400 291.75
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1000,000
1200,000
1400,000
7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300
Call Put
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March 24, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
183
195
216
228
248
ASIANPAINT 1,387 1,443
1,546
1,602
1,706
AXISBANK
244
276
334
366
424
BAJAJ-AUTO 1,586 1,761
2,075
2,250
2,564
BAJFINANCE 1,922 2,094
2,397
2,569
2,872
BAJAJFINSV 3,545 4,083
4,987
5,525
6,428
BPCL
241
255
277
291
312
BHARTIARTL
371
389
418
436
464
INFRATEL
127
135
142
150
156
BRITANNIA 1,898 2,018
2,220
2,340
2,542
CIPLA
347
361
384
398
421
COALINDIA
113
120
128
135
142
DRREDDY 2,465 2,617
2,832
2,984
3,199
EICHERMOT 10,844
12,275
14,758
16,188
18,671
GAIL
68
73
78
82
87
GRASIM
340
387
443
490
546
HCLTECH
377
397
421
441
464
HDFCBANK
718
745
792
819
866
HDFC 1,391 1,456
1,565
1,629
1,738
HEROMOTOCO
1,450
1,533
1,603
1,686
1,756
HINDALCO
76
82
91
97
106
HINDUNILVR 1,767 1,818
1,902
1,953
2,037
ICICIBANK
259
271
293
30
5
326
IOC
75
78
83
85
90
INDUSINDBK
282
309
357
384
432
INFY
489
508
534
553
579
ITC
142
148
155
161
168
JSW STEEL
120
132
148
160
176
KOTAKBANK 1,001 1,049
1,127
1,176
1,253
LT
643
683
747
787
851
M&M
269
281
293
305
316
MARUTI 3,735 3,978
4,384
4,627
5,033
NESTLEIND 11,982
12,463
13,232
13,713
14,481
NTPC
70
73
77
80
83
ONGC
56
58
62
64
67
POWERGRID
136
144
150
159
164
RELIANCE
829
856
903
931
978
SBIN 15,357
16,158
16,869
17,670
18,381
SUNPHARMA
168
175
187
194
206
TCS
292
308
331
348
371
TATAMOTORS 1,547 1,608
1,679
1,741
1,811
TATASTEEL
62
64
68
70
74
TECHM
243
257
268
282
292
TITAN
430
458
500
529
571
ULTRACEMCO
735
768
804
838
874
UPL 2,875 2,965
3,128
3,218
3,380
VEDANTA
216
236
259
278
302
WIPRO
56
59
65
69
75
YESBANK
159
164
171
176
183
ZEEL
99
110
128
139
156
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 24, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: techni[email protected]king.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: d[email protected].com
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