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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 24, 2020
Sensex (
41170)
(1
2081
)
We had a shaky start for the week as some overhang continued
of what we saw previous Friday with respect to the AGR case. In
addition to this, things related to coronavirus aggravated which
had a rub off effect on all global peers. Thus, market looked
nervous in first half of the week gone by to retest 11900 levels.
Fortunately, bulls pounced on this opportunity quite aggressively
and as a result, we witnessed a v-shaped recovery thereafter to
reclaim the 12000 mark on a weekly closing basis.
We have already mentioned in our intra-week reports how crucial
that recovery was on Tuesday. Let us see what these technical
observations are. On Tuesday all major indices formed a ‘Bullish
Hammer’ pattern on daily chart and for Nifty it was placed at the
50% retracement of the recent up move. Now we have moved
one step forward as we can see the Tuesday’s ‘Hammer’ pattern
along with Monday’s and Wednesday’s candle, combinedly gives
a birth to a ‘Bullish Island Reversal’ pattern. This configuration
occurs when the previous gap is precisely filled by yet another
gap but in the opposite direction and has extremely bullish
implication. Hence, going forward, as long as we do not enter
into Wednesday’s gap area of 12042.10 12030.75, the said
pattern remains intact and is likely to provide some impetus to the
next leg of the rally. In the forthcoming week, once Nifty
surpasses 12160, we may see Nifty retesting of 12220 12250
levels. On the downside, 12042 – 12000 remains a strong
support zone.
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
30943
)
During the week gone by, the bank index too started on a weak
note however after taking support at vicinity of a bullish gap and
200SMA at 30250 formed a bullish reversal pattern known as
hammer to bounce back sharply and end the week with gains of
around 0.35.
The bank nifty outperformed the benchmark index and looking at
the price action of some of the heavyweight banking stocks we
sense the banking index may continue to outperform in the near
term. Traders are advised to avoid any contra bets and to have a
stock specific long bets within this basket. As far as levels are
concerned, immediate support is placed around 30700 and
30600 whereas resistance is seen around 31300 and 31530
levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30700 Resistance 1 – 31300
Support 2 – 30600 Resistance 2 – 31530
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The banking index has been slightly underperforming since few
days but on Thursday we witnessed a sheer outperformance
from this space courtesy to a smart move in SBI and Indusind
Bank. Apart from this, the midcap space looked vibrant in last
couple of days and has managed to give a v-shaped recovery.
Hence, we may see good traction in this universe in coming days
as well.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 12042 Resistance 1 – 12160
Support 2 – 12000 Resistance 2 – 12220
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February 24, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
11300
11400
11500
11600
11700
11800
11900
12000
12100
12200
12300
13,400
13,600
13,800
14,000
14,200
14,400
14,600
14,800
15,000
15,200
2
-
1
2
-
4
2
-
6
2
-
10
2
-
12
2
-
14
2
-
18
2
-
20
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
Post come consolidation seen in the previous week,
the benchmark index corrected almost towards
11900 mark; but, managed to reclaim 12000 on
the same day. This upmove was then followed by
fresh buying interest to extend the rally above
12150; however, some profit booking on Thursday
led closing 0.42% lower to the previous week’s
close.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1495 crores. In index futures, they sold
worth Rs. 753 crores with a fall in open interest,
indicating long unwinding in Thursdays session.
We hardly saw any relevant open interest activity in
Nifty futures; however, banking index managed to
conclude the week marginally higher with almost 8%
open interest reduction. In options front, 12000 put
and 12200 call options are attracting trader’s
attentions. Considering the above data points, we don’t
see any major downside from here on; hence, traders
are advised using decline to add-on fresh longs in the
system.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.07%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.74%
as market closed at 12080.85 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 20.7
points against a premium of 27.4 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 9.15
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 14.02 to 13.70.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.38 to 1.12.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NCC, BHEL, FEDERALBNK and
ESCORTS.
OI
Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MINDTREE 1392800 19.41 1049.45 2.12
AMBUJACEM 40725000 10.95 205.40 0.02
GMRINFRA 199440000 10.50 23.65 2.16
ESCORTS 5418600 9.91 878.25 -3.40
CHOLAFIN 6992500 9.22 332.00 0.67
RAMCOCEM 1370400 8.90 804.25 0.21
HINDPETRO 18734100 8.89 222.40 -1.78
IBULHSGFIN 25272000 7.75 338.20 10.74
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
OIL 12654477 -13.90 125.15 -1.57
TATASTEEL 25050000 -7.78 443.55 2.09
INDUSINDBK 15326800 -5.66 1182.20 3.23
MFSL 6086600 -5.18 565.00 9.03
JUBLFOOD 2792000 -5.02 1883.10 -0.88
BEL 46794000 -4.94 86.55 2.00
INFRATEL 14030000 -4.71 226.20 0.64
WIPRO 21740800 -4.38 245.70 -0.76
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.12 0.95
BANKNIFTY 0.98 0.72
RELIANCE 0.51 0.58
ICICIBANK 0.56 0.52
INFY 0.46 0.50
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
APOLLOTYRE 39.01
MFSL 74.66
MINDTREE 31.40
IBULHSGFIN 105.41
CIPLA 28.74
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Technic
al & Derivatives Report
February 24, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
12080.85
Lot Size = 75
FII
Statistics
for February
20
,
2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3278.75
4031.63
(752.88) 156035
13271.03
(3.88)
INDEX
OPTIONS
428521.02
429066.84
(545.82) 648783
55859.97
(8.89)
STOCK
FUTURES
17017.68
16920.28
97.40
1568271
102815.36
0.10
STOCK
OPTIONS
6936.77
6925.59
11.18
83952
5733.24
0.16
Total 455754.22
456944.34
(1190.12) 2457041
177679.60
(2.69)
Turnover
on
February 20
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 288815 21450.15 -6.03
Index Options 46216407 3144102.11 98.53
Stock Futures 999461 67189.14 18.11
Stock Options 1137911 81543.88 7.84
Total 4,86,42,594
3314285.28 90.58
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
12100 57.30
31.10 68.90 12131.10
Sell 12200 26.20
Buy 12100 57.30
47.10 152.90 12147.10
Sell 12300 10.20
Buy 12200 26.20
16.00 84.00 12216.00
Sell 12300 10.20
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12100 83.45
43.00 57.00 12057.00
Sell 12000 40.45
Buy 12100 83.45
66.35 133.65 12033.65
Sell 11900 17.10
Buy 12000 40.45
23.35 76.65 11976.65
Sell 11900 17.10
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
11500
11600
11700
11800
11900
12000
12100
12200
12300
12400
12500
12600
12700
12800
Call Put
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Technic
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February 24, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 367 369
372 374 376
ASIANPAINT 1,809 1,826
1,856 1,872 1,903
AXISBANK 729 737
745 753 762
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,032 3,049
3,074 3,091 3,117
BAJFINANCE 4,816 4,848
4,886 4,918 4,956
BAJAJFINSV 9,610 9,660
9,744 9,794 9,877
BPCL 465 468
474 478 484
BHARTIARTL 532 539
545 552 559
INFRATEL 221 224
227 230 234
BRITANNIA 3,007 3,033
3,078 3,104 3,150
CIPLA 425 431
440 445 454
COALINDIA 173 176
178 181 183
DRREDDY 3,162 3,209
3,287 3,333 3,412
EICHERMOT 18,322 18,585
18,808 19,071 19,293
GAIL 117 118
120 121 122
GRASIM 733 742
755 764 777
HCLTECH 601 604
609 612 617
HDFCBANK 1,205 1,211
1,220 1,227 1,236
HDFC 2,337 2,353
2,365 2,382 2,394
HEROMOTOCO 2,210 2,225
2,251 2,266 2,291
HINDALCO 183 187
189 192 194
HINDUNILVR 2,213 2,231
2,260 2,278 2,308
ICICIBANK 539 543
546 550 554
IOC 110 111
113 114 115
INDUSINDBK 1,118 1,150
1,177 1,209 1,236
INFY 787 792
799 804 811
ITC 204 206
207 209 210
JSW STEEL 273 277
282 286 290
KOTAKBANK 1,664 1,675
1,687 1,698 1,710
LT 1,268 1,274
1,282 1,288 1,295
M&M 517 521
527 531 537
MARUTI 6,674 6,716
6,762 6,803 6,849
NESTLEIND 16,387 16,463
16,602 16,678 16,816
NTPC 110 111
112 112 113
ONGC 100 102
103 104 105
POWERGRID 184 187
189 191 193
RELIANCE 1,468 1,477
1,493 1,501 1,517
SBIN 315 321
325 332 336
SUNPHARMA 399 402
407 410 415
TCS 2,111 2,134
2,174 2,197 2,237
TATAMOTORS 153 156
159 162 165
TATASTEEL 420 432
440 452 459
TECHM 815 822
834 841 853
TITAN 1,307 1,315
1,328 1,336 1,349
ULTRACEMCO 4,364 4,396
4,452 4,484 4,540
UPL 572 578
587 594 603
VEDANTA 139 141
143 144 147
WIPRO 243 244
246 248 250
YESBANK 34 35
36 36 37
ZEEL 246 252
256 261 266
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Technic
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February 24, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cs[email protected]elbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]angelbroking.com
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