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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 23, 2019
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Sensex (
38964
(1
1588
)
Post the extended weekend, Nifty opened on a marginal negative
note. The highlight of the day was the gap down opening in the
index heavyweight Infy, which opened down by 10% due to the
news of whistleblower allegations over corporate governance
lapses. This had a negative impact on the benchmark too, but it
was balanced to an extent by the banking sector which
outperformed during the session. The index ultimately ended the
day with a loss of over six tenths of a percent, tad below 11600
mark.
In last few sessions, the Nifty has moved swiftly from the recent
low of 11100 to 11700. The index had resisted around the
11700 mark twice in the recent past (during mid-July and
September). Since the index has already moved higher sharply
and is now near this swing high resistance, there could be some
consolidation in the near term. However, the broader trend still
continues to be positive and there are no signs of a reversal in
trend. Thus, traders should look for buying opportunities in such
consolidation/ corrections and we expect the index to head higher
towards 11800-11900 soon. The immediate support for the
index is placed in the range of 11550-11480 which could be
seen as a potential buying zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11550 Resistance 1 – 11700
Support 2 – 11480 Resistance 2 – 11760
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
29411
)
Yesterday, Bank Nifty Index witnessed a gap up opening and it
outperformed as compared to benchmark index Nifty. The Bank
Index marked an intraday high of 29688 however in the last hour
it gave up some of the gains following the broad base profit
booking. Eventually, it ended near the opening levels with gains
of one percent tad above 29400 levels.
It was more of a stock-specific session for the Bank Index as some
key results was announced during the weekend and during the
session. The bias remains positive and any correction or price
consolidation should be used as a buying opportunity. Having
said that traders are advised to focus on stock-specific trades
within the banking basket as they can continue to give
outperforming opportunities. As far as levels are concerned
immediate support is placed around 29200-28850 whereas
resistance is placed around 29610-29790.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29200 Resistance 1 – 29610
Support 2 – 28850 Resistance 2 – 29790
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Amongst sector specific moves, the BankNifty had shown some
relative underperformance in the recent rally in the broader
markets. Yesterday's move in the banking space is really
encouraging and hence, stocks from this sector should now take
the leadership in taking index higher going ahead. Short-term
traders are also advised to avoid bottom fishing in the names
from the IT space where the news had a negative impact on stock
prices. Such scenarios in the recent past have led to a huge
underperformance in stocks, and thus traders should avoid taking
such high risk contra bets.
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October 23, 2019
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
The week started on a positive note however the
weakness in the heavyweight counter Infy restricted
benchmart Index Nifty around its recent highs of 11700
and eventually ended below 11600. Bank Nifty
outperformed as it ended with gains of a percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 558 cr. In index futures, they bought worth
Rs. 1328 crores with rise in open interest, indicating
formation of fresh long positions.
In yesterday’s session, the Nifty index witnessed
addition of good amount of open interest. FII’s have
bought index futures with rise in open interest
indicating formation of fresh longs. As per the options
data, 11500-11700 is seen as the immediate trading
range and hence traders are advised to use declines as
buying opportunity. Any intraday declines near 11550-
11500 range should be used to buy call option.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 9.28%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 0.45% as
market closed at 11588.35 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 36
points against a premium of 8.15 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
78.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 15.92 to 16.81.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.44 to 1.20.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NBCC, BRITANNIA, IGL and
BANKINDIA.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
INFY 73422000 44.75 643.55 -16.04
JUBLFOOD 3080000 29.36 1428.90 5.47
CENTURYTEX 2212800 26.39 444.15 10.79
NIITTECH 720750 15.50 1452.20 2.29
VOLTAS 2372000 10.07 693.45 0.14
SIEMENS 1823250 7.21 1674.90 1.48
JINDALSTEL 33811200 7.13 103.40 -3.84
APOLLOTYRE 7506000 6.74 185.05 -0.30
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MANAPPURAM 11892000 -9.79 158.25 2.63
YESBANK 151850600 -8.81 51.80 0.58
CESC 800000 -8.34 804.60 -0.45
PFC 41695000 -6.64 101.50 3.25
JUSTDIAL 2472400 -6.56 625.20 -1.29
NATIONALUM 59510000 -6.25 43.80 0.34
BANKINDIA 25296000 -6.06 64.30 0.31
HDFCBANK 35051000 -6.03 1239.25 1.24
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.20 0.94
BANKNIFTY 1.27 0.89
RELIANCE 0.67 0.63
ICICIBANK 0.84 0.66
INFY 0.43 0.51
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
INFY 89.47
CENTURYTEX 70.37
MFSL 40.09
DISHTV 117.37
DRREDDY 27.38
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October 23, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11588.35
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
22
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5250.68 3922.47 1328.21
162829 13272.78 10.58
INDEX
OPTIONS
198149.96 197952.10 197.86
746585 59832.27 0.76
STOCK
FUTURES
17109.31 16791.66 317.65
1531514 92327.37 (0.18)
STOCK
OPTIONS
9436.19 9752.05 (315.86) 111152 6299.83 12.56
Total 229946.14
228418.28
1527.86
2552080
171732.25
1.22
Turnover on
October
22
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
383134 26976.33 19.02
INDEX
OPTIONS
12239158 851749.67 40.14
STOCK
FUTURES
1180260 67841.49 27.72
STOCK
OPTIONS
1307295 80803.00 31.27
TOTAL 1,51,09,847
1027370.49 37.88
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11600 127.85
47.30 52.70 11647.30
Sell 11700 80.55
Buy 11600 127.85
81.70 118.30 11681.70
Sell 11800 46.15
Buy 11700 80.55
34.40 65.60 11734.40
Sell 11800 46.15
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11600 102.75
37.60 62.40 11562.40
Sell 11500 65.15
Buy 11600 102.75
60.90 139.10 11539.10
Sell 11400 41.85
Buy 11500 65.15
23.30 76.70 11476.70
Sell 11400 41.85
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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October 23, 2019
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 410 416
422 427 434
ASIANPAINT 1,743 1,762
1,793 1,812 1,843
AXISBANK 693 703
713 723 733
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,057 3,090
3,122 3,155 3,187
BAJFINANCE 3,865 3,950
4,085 4,169 4,304
BAJAJFINSV 7,708 7,858
8,126 8,276 8,543
BPCL 515 525
532 541 548
BHARTIARTL 350 362
379 391 409
INFRATEL 251 255
260 264 270
BRITANNIA 3,182 3,215
3,253 3,287 3,325
CIPLA 433 443
451 461 468
COALINDIA 201 205
207 211 214
DRREDDY 2,671 2,741
2,781 2,851 2,891
EICHERMOT 19,457 19,718
20,116 20,376 20,774
GAIL 128 129
130 131 132
GRASIM 727 742
757 771 786
HCLTECH 1,026 1,045
1,071 1,090 1,115
HDFCBANK 1,219 1,229
1,243 1,253 1,267
HDFC 2,073 2,094
2,117 2,138 2,162
HEROMOTOCO 2,604 2,639
2,676 2,712 2,749
HINDALCO 181 184
187 189 193
HINDUNILVR 2,092 2,110
2,129 2,147 2,166
ICICIBANK 428 440
449 461 470
IOC 144 145
147 148 149
INDUSINDBK 1,302 1,321
1,340 1,359 1,377
INFY 605 624
658 677 710
ITC 242 246
248 252 254
JSW STEEL 215 217
222 224 228
KOTAKBANK 1,570 1,600
1,621 1,651 1,672
LT 1,421 1,432
1,450 1,461 1,478
M&M 581 588
595 602 609
MARUTI 7,133 7,195
7,293 7,355 7,453
NESTLEIND 14,714 14,867
14,989 15,142 15,264
NTPC 119 120
121 122 123
ONGC 140 142
144 146 148
POWERGRID 198 202
205 208 211
RELIANCE 1,385 1,399
1,418 1,433 1,452
SBIN 265 268
271 274 278
SUNPHARMA 398 402
405 409 412
TCS 1,996 2,024
2,068 2,095 2,139
TATAMOTORS 127 129
132 135 138
TATASTEEL 346 350
357 361 368
TECHM 704 711
721 728 739
TITAN 1,278 1,304
1,320 1,346 1,363
ULTRACEMCO 4,099 4,174
4,292 4,367 4,485
UPL 587 592
598 603 609
VEDANTA 145 147
149 152 154
WIPRO 244 249
252 256 259
YESBANK 47 49
53 56 59
ZEEL 243 247
251 255 259
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 23, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]elbroking.com
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