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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 23, 2019
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.angelbroking.com
Sensex (
) / Nifty
(1
1274
)
During the last week, market looked depressed and the way it
was grinding towards the recent lows, traders’ / investors’ were
almost losing all hopes from the market. The FM tried lot many
things in last few weeks to boost the sentiments; but seems she
had saved her masterstroke for the right time. Finally on Friday,
she delivered which could lift the sentiments and that has clearly
been proven by such a mesmerizing reaction from the market.
The buying commenced the moment FM initiated her speech and
it went to a different level for next couple of hours. Finally this
became the historical day for our markets as we clocked biggest
ever intraday gains to take a giant leap from 10700.
Now the point is what’s next? Firstly, one has to understand that
the low hanging fruit is already gone after this colossal rally. But
this is not the end of it; there are further legs to unfold from
hereon. With reference to our previous articles, we did some
‘Time Retracement’ analysis taking into a consideration few
historical evidences. For ‘Nifty Midcap’ index, the September
month was the 21st month from January 2018 peak. And on last
couple of occasions (historically), the downtrend got arrested after
21st and 34th month. As per the Fibonacci series, both 21 and
34 are part of it and hence hold some significance. In addition,
for Nifty, last week was the 21st week as per the ‘Time
Retracement’ and thus, we were hoping for some respite.
Considering the last week’s initial correction, our final hope was
the recent low of 10637.15. Fortunately it remained defended
and with Friday’s development, the market seemed to have
validated our hypothesis on ‘Time Retracement’.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
28982
)
Friday's session turned out to be a blockbuster day for the
banking sector as well as the stocks from this sector as it
witnessed enourmous buying momentum post the announcement
from the FM to cut the corporate tax rate. The index not ony
breached high of the recent consolidation phase, but also
registered its biggest rally in last 10 years. The BankNifty ended
the week around the 29000 mark, registering whopping gains of
more than 2200 points on Friday. In last one month, it was the
third time wherein the BankNifty took support in the range of
26650-26550. Howerver, this time it was not just a pull back
move but an upmove supported by a broader market and
significant high volumes. Thus, the breach of the swing high of
28127 changed the trend for the index and the follow up
momentum was seen throuhout the day. Hence, traders should
avoid taking any contra trades and look for buying opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28600 Resistance 1 – 29600
Support 2 – 28500 Resistance 2 – 29700
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Now, we have finally managed to thrash the recent sturdy wall
of 11200 with some authority. Although, we are considerably
higher in a single day, traders should continue to remain on the
long side and soon we expect Nifty to head towards 11450
11550 or may be beyond. As far as supports are concerned,
11150 followed by 11000 would now be seen as a sheet
anchor. Any decline (if any) should be construed as a buying
opportunity. On Friday, almost all sectors (especially the beaten
down) soared as if there is no tomorrow. One needs to identify
apt candidates who are likely to extend this lead. The FM has
finally delivered and market has finally turned cheerful to bring
back wider smiles on the faces of market participants.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11150 Resistance 1 – 11450
Support 2 – 11000 Resistance 2 – 11550
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
On Friday, our markets started on a mild positive
note and after an initial dip witnessed a sharp
upsurge following the positive announcement by F.M
and eventually ended with strong gains of 5.32% at
11274.20
FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 35.78 cr. In index futures, they bought of worth
Rs. 5078 cr with significant rise in open interest,
indicating formation of fresh of long positions in last
session.
On Friday, the Finance minister slashed corporate tax
for domestic companies that boost the market to give
biggest ever intraday gain of 5.5%. In the course of
action, Nifty surpassed the hurdles of 11000 & 11200
and concluded the week tad above 11250 mark.
Previously, we have been consistently seeing short
formation in index futures and FIIs too have been
selling equities. Considering the recovery seen on
Friday, we expect further short covering rally going
ahead; hence, traders are advised utilising any dips in
market to add-on fresh longs.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 8.24%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 0.69% as
market closed at 11274.20 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
21.30 points against a premium of 6.50 points in last
trading session. The October series closed at a premium
of 60.4 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 15.55 to 15.40.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
0.83 to 1.39.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are CONCOR, PETRONET, IDEA and
MANAPPURAM
ARVIND
.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
DLF 47796000 20.65 168.30 8.75
BPCL 23909400 19.07 403.85 6.78
GMRINFRA 173295000 18.75 16.60 4.72
CESC 1218400 13.49 841.50 5.42
COLPAL 1673700 13.21 1397.20 5.61
TORNTPOWER 4632000 13.03 279.05 0.12
MFSL 3080400 12.93 399.65 0.59
CONCOR 3718377 11.95 552.25 7.50
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
OFSS 91200 -20.42 3167.95 7.88
KAJARIACER 549900 -19.12 583.25 6.93
MCX 1099000 -18.48 925.35 1.53
TATAGLOBAL 9425700 -16.30 267.35 4.99
VOLTAS 2090000 -12.99 667.40 7.11
BALKRISIND 1422400 -12.02 795.90 7.76
TVSMOTOR 6895900 -10.94 424.70 13.94
MINDTREE 1762200 -10.02 713.65 3.30
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.39 0.84
BANKNIFTY 1.36 0.76
RELIANCE 0.62 0.55
ICICIBANK 0.67 0.49
INFY 0.90 0.80
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HINDUNILVR 44.01
MRF 55.59
BERGEPAINT 44.57
HDFCBANK 45.72
HAVELLS 66.50
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September 23, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11274.20
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
September
20
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
19054.61 13975.82 5078.79
289954 23336.49 17.45
INDEX
OPTIONS
365957.80 365796.83 160.97
860638 68030.00 14.17
STOCK
FUTURES
33700.64 32019.00 1681.64
1609310 97326.28 2.01
STOCK
OPTIONS
20326.47 19883.60 442.87
89530 5154.05 13.51
Total 439039.52
431675.25
7364.27
2849432
193846.82
7.23
Turnover
on
September
20
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
1239086 86029.81 233.52
INDEX
OPTIONS
23749135 1636349.08 -33.39
STOCK
FUTURES
2380830 136260.38 204.89
STOCK
OPTIONS
2301323 137615.47 175.85
TOTAL 2,96,70,374
1996254.74 -22.53
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11300 89.95
39.45 60.55 11339.45
Sell 11400 50.50
Buy 11300 89.95
61.85 138.15 11361.85
Sell 11500 28.10
Buy 11400 50.50
22.40 77.60 11422.40
Sell 11500 28.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11300 95.35
42.90 57.10 11257.10
Sell 11200 52.45
Buy 11300 95.35
67.05 132.95 11232.95
Sell 11100 28.30
Buy 11200 52.45
24.15 75.85 11175.85
Sell 11100 28.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 352 366
376 390 399
ASIANPAINT 1,463 1,567
1,646 1,750 1,829
AXISBANK 597 639
664 706 731
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,596 2,763
2,891 3,058 3,187
BAJFINANCE 3,111 3,407
3,578 3,874 4,046
BAJAJFINSV 6,834 7,264
7,532 7,962 8,230
BPCL 327 366
411 449 494
BHARTIARTL 322 339
352 369 382
INFRATEL 243 251
257 265 271
BRITANNIA 2,504 2,685
2,784 2,966 3,065
CIPLA 438 451
458 470 477
COALINDIA 184 192
197 205 211
DRREDDY 2,653 2,745
2,804 2,896 2,955
EICHERMOT 13,975 15,917
17,703 19,645 21,431
GAIL 128 131
134 138 140
GRASIM 670 710
738 778 806
HCLTECH 1,024 1,036
1,050 1,063 1,076
HDFCBANK 1,067 1,133
1,172 1,238 1,276
HDFC 1,920 1,985
2,025 2,090 2,130
HEROMOTOCO 2,320 2,592
2,804 3,075 3,288
HINDALCO 188 195
202 209 215
HINDUNILVR 1,742 1,856
1,924 2,038 2,106
IBULHSGFIN 381 405
419 443 458
ICICIBANK 372 395
409 432 447
IOC 118 125
131 138 144
INDUSINDBK 1,199 1,309
1,382 1,492 1,565
INFY 781 793
814 826 847
ITC 226 232
240 246 254
JSW STEEL 210 224
232 246 254
KOTAKBANK 1,381 1,460
1,529 1,608 1,678
LT 1,245 1,328
1,372 1,456 1,500
M&M 499 534
554 589 609
MARUTI 5,541 6,066
6,508 7,034 7,475
NTPC 114 117
121 124 128
ONGC 117 125
130 139 143
POWERGRID 187 191
200 205 214
RELIANCE 1,137 1,196
1,233 1,291 1,328
SBIN 253 278
293 317 332
SUNPHARMA 401 408
414 420 427
TCS 2,012 2,039
2,084 2,111 2,156
TATAMOTORS 116 125
131 140 146
TATASTEEL 328 348
365 385 401
TECHM 684 693
704 713 725
TITAN 1,069 1,166
1,250 1,348 1,432
ULTRACEMCO 3,677 3,974
4,149 4,445 4,620
UPL 537 550
567 580 597
VEDANTA 139 149
155 165 171
WIPRO 237 241
245 250 253
YESBANK 49 52
56 59 63
ZEEL 254 277
297 321 340
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September 23, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
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