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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 23, 2020
Nifty Bank
Outlook
(
20318
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a flat note and as compared to
Nifty it underperformed and traded within a range to end with
gains of more than a percent at 20318.
Not much has changed and the overall sentiments remained
bleak for the banking stocks during the week gone by. In the last
two sessions, the bank nifty had defended the psychological
20000 mark on the closing basis hinting towards a pause to the
recent sell off. However SGX Nifty is indicating a gap down
opening and we are likely to retest the recent lows of 18500. The
volatility is likely to remain high and hence traders are advised to
remain on side line and avoid undue risk
.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 18880 Resistance 1 – 20610
Support 2 – 18500 Resistance 2 – 21000
Exhibit 1:
Nifty
Daily
Chart
Sensex (29916) / Nifty (8745)
Last Friday, our markets locked into a lower circuit for 45 minutes
and after resuming the trade, we witnessed a v-shaped recovery
of nearly 17-18% from the lows. Many might have thought the
bottom is made and worst is behind us. But market is never as
easy as it appears. The coronavirus pandemic fear aggravated
over the weekend and hence global markets again started
bleeding. As a result, we not only tested last Friday’s low but also
convincingly breached to see sub-8000 levels, lowest since
‘Demonetisation’. Fortunately for us, we managed to recover
some ground thereafter and eventually concluded the week at
8750 with a severe cut of 12% on weekly basis.
Generally such price action happens when the panic bottom is
made. But this time, things have defied all the traditional
theories of stock market and hence it would be hard to decide
whether the worst is behind us. It’s better not to pre-empt
anything and should keep focusing on further developments
with respect to coronavirus. During the week, the major culprit
pocket has been the financial space and it is surprising to see
few marquee names like HDFC Bank and Bajaj finance also had
to succumb to this meltdown. The law of gravity has finally
weighed down heavily on these all-time favourite names. Thus,
we reiterate traders should avoid aggressive bets as well as
leveraged trades. For a time being, better to be with some
defensive names like Pharma who has done remarkably well
throughout the week
.
Exhibit 2:
Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
For the Nifty, 8200 followed by 7832 are the downside
supports and on the higher side, extended recovery can be
seen after reclaiming 9000 on a sustainable basis. We
continue to maintain our stance that these declines are
providing opportunities to accumulate quality stocks in a
staggered manner. The SGX NIFTY is indicating one more gap
down opening and all eyes would continue to be on the
developments of the Corona Virus cases which is likely to
dictate the near term movement
.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 8200 Resistance 1 – 8885
Support 2 – 7832 Resistance 2 – 9000
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 23, 2020
Nifty Vs
OI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
3/5 3/6 3/9 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/16 3/17 3/18 3/19 3/20
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
During the week, the indices continued to witnessed
sharp sell-off and the Nifty breached the 8000 mark.
However, a recovery in last couple of sessions led to a
close above 8700
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 3346 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 2428 crores with increase in open interest
indicating short covering and some long positions.
During the week, FII’s continued to sell equities in the
cash segment. However, they bought decent amount
index futures due to which their ‘Long Short Ratio’ has
increased to 41% compared to 22% in last week. This is
a sign of relief as they have turned buyers in the
futures segment during the week. India VIX continued
to be a concern as it surpassed the 70 mark on
Thursday. It cooled off a bit to end around 67 mark on
Friday. Going ahead, while large swings are expected
to continue, we may see some further recovery if the
volatility index cools-off further and FII’s start covering
their short positions. Traders are advised to keep a tab
on these developments and trade accordingly
.
Co
m
ment
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.88%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.19%
as market closed at 8745.45 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a discount of 22.35
points against a discount of 57.55 points in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 8.95
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 72.20 to 67.10.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased
from 0.98 to 1.19.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are NAUKRI, INFRATEL, CESC, PAGEIND and
CUMMINSIND.
OI
Gain
ers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS 3427600 16.66 675.15 18.47
ADANIPOWER 68850000 16.01 29.05 7.38
HDFCBANK 36669000 15.27 882.85 -1.39
TORNTPHARM 323000 14.54 1894.10 6.89
JUBLFOOD 3518000 13.45 1471.00 9.37
PEL 2972271 12.62 684.80 -11.71
INDUSINDBK 19081600 12.48 440.35 -0.11
AMBUJACEM 19635000 10.96 160.40 4.47
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 741500 -16.78 1363.00 15.65
CADILAHC 3819200 -13.89 285.80 17.32
CUMMINSIND 945000 -12.06 421.15 0.86
GAIL 25891236 -11.89 80.80 16.29
UJJIVAN 2879800 -10.23 184.75 -0.24
RAMCOCEM 695200 -9.01 593.55 5.72
TVSMOTOR 3603150 -8.72 379.80 4.96
EQUITAS 11382700 -8.47 51.60 4.68
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.19 0.47
BANKNIFTY 0.60 0.32
RELIANCE 0.42 0.57
ICICIBANK 0.42 0.64
INFY 0.65 0.61
Hi
sto
rical
V
olatility
SCRIP HV
CADILAHC 93.51
HINDUNILVR 70.65
DRREDDY 65.70
JUBLFOOD 113.35
APOLLOHOSP 100.32
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 23, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
8745.45
FII
Statistics for March
20
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
12102.76
9674.62
2428.14
289163
17683.93
5.67
INDEX
OPTIONS
97881.99
97068.77
813.22
943558
59075.92
8.06
STOCK
FUTURES
22232.73
23283.72
(1050.99) 1492333
70591.00
0.36
STOCK
OPTIONS
2414.52
2443.98
(29.46) 80080
3842.55
4.30
Total 134632.00
132471.09
2160.91
2805134
151193.40
3.49
Turnover on
Marc
h
20
,
20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 10,52,101 56708.35 -0.24
Index Options 87,26,354 5,15,948.18 -68.87
Stock Futures 15,22,608 67294.84 11.22
Stock Options 7,62,476 37860.09 14.98
Total 1,20,63,539
6,77,811.46 -62.50
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8300 402.45
53.60 46.40 8353.60
Sell 8400 348.85
Buy 8300 402.45
101.90 98.10 8401.90
Sell 8500 300.55
Buy 8400 348.85
48.30 51.70 8448.30
Sell 8500 300.55
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8700 358.00
39.10 60.90 8660.90
Sell 8600 318.90
Buy 8700 358.00
70.15 129.85 8629.85
Sell 8500 287.85
Buy 8600 318.90
31.05 68.95 8568.95
Sell 8500 287.85
Nift
y
Put
-
Call
Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 23, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
239
248
256
265
273
ASIANPAINT
1,503
1,623 1,690
1,810
1,877
AXISBANK
395
412
431
447
466
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,087
2,165 2,232
2,309
2,377
BAJFINANCE
2,450
2,701 2,873
3,123
3,295
BAJAJFINSV
5,416
5,825 6,108
6,517
6,800
BPCL
289
303
313
328
338
BHARTIARTL
422
442
457
478
492
INFRATEL
109
129
142
162
175
BRITANNIA
2,214
2,341 2,421
2,548
2,628
CIPLA
361
377
388
404
416
COALINDIA
117
125
130
138
144
DRREDDY
2,521
2,709 2,829
3,017
3,137
EICHERMOT
13,848
14,763 15,381
16,296
16,914
GAIL
66
73
78
85
90
GRASIM
451
490
527
567
604
HCLTECH
389
417
440
467
490
HDFCBANK
784
833
874
923
964
HDFC
1,447
1,600 1,689
1,842
1,930
HEROMOTOCO
1,608
1,712
1,779
1,883
1,950
HINDALCO
95
100
104
109
113
HINDUNILVR
1,765
1,908 1,994
2,137
2,222
ICICIBANK
306
326
343
363
380
IOC
86
88
91
93
95
INDUSINDBK
368
404
442
478
515
INFY
514
550
584
619
653
ITC
161
168
172
180
184
JSW STEEL
159
167
173
182
188
KOTAKBANK
1,094
1,178 1,231
1,315
1,368
LT
811
838
858
885
904
M&M
300
311
320
331
340
MARUTI
4,627
4,853 5,039
5,265
5,451
NESTLEIND
12,626
13,386 13,910
14,669
15,193
NTPC
74
78
80
84
86
ONGC
58
65
70
77
81
POWERGRID
142
150
156
163
169
RELIANCE
889
954
994
1,059
1,099
SBIN
16,213
17,558 18,372
19,718
20,532
SUNPHARMA
193
201
209
217
224
TCS
352
358
369
376
386
TATAMOTORS
1,522
1,660 1,764
1,902
2,006
TATASTEEL
70
73
77
80
83
TECHM
261
280
292
310
323
TITAN
495
536
566
606
636
ULTRACEMCO
834
869
902
937
970
UPL
2,941
3,257 3,457
3,774
3,973
VEDANTA
269
285
303
318
336
WIPRO
67
71
75
79
82
YESBANK
153
166
176
189
199
ZEEL
128
136
145
153
162
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 23, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: techn[email protected]elbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]
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