Technical & Derivatives Report
February 23, 2018
Sensex (33819) / Nifty (10383)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Trading for the expiry day began on a cautious note owing to
strong bout of selling seen in the US markets. However, it just
became an opening effect as we saw index vacillating in a small
range thereafter with mildly positive bias. Eventually, on expected
lines, the current month expiry panned out convincingly above the
10350 mark.
Market seem to have slipped into a consolidation mode and
within this 10340 - 10300 band has earned great respect from
the short sellers. Hence, going forward, this support zone needs
to be tracked quite closely. On the higher side, the upper band is
not quite far as we can see cluster of resistances between 10426
-
10500 levels. Going ahead, if market has to give any
convincing relief rally, it should first surpass the 10500 mark.
However, in this scenario, the broader picture does not change as
we may see selling pressure at higher levels. If we have to take a
directional bet, we would certainly stick with a cautious stance
considering the ‘Bearish Engulfing’ pattern on weekly chart along
with the ‘RSI-Smoothened’ (daily) slipping below the 30 mark.
This indicates a probable correction towards 10200 first and then
to test the ‘200-day SMA’ placed around 10090. The near term
strategy would be to follow stock centric approach if index
manages to give a decent relief rally and then use such rebounds
to create fresh shorts at higher levels. The weakening of Indian
Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar continues to be an alarming
sign for our market. So, one should keep a close eye on this
development as well along with US markets.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10340
Resistance 1 - 10456
Support 2 - 10300
Resistance 2 - 10500
Nifty Bank Outlook - (24955)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The Nifty Bank index traded in a narrow range in yesterday's
session too and ended the day with negligible gains. As we have
been mentioning since last couple of days, the Nifty Bank index is
trading close to its '200 SMA' support which is placed in the range
of 24650-24700. Usually, this average is considered as a support
during corrective moves due to which we have seen loss in selling
momentum in the index in the last couple of sessions. On hourly
chart, the immediate range for the Nifty Bank index is seen at
24650-25160. Only a move beyond this range will now lead to a
directional move. While a breakout above 25160 could lead a
pullback move in the index, a breach below the support of 24650
would indicate continuation of the corrective trend. Momentum
traders are hence advised to trade with a stock specific approach
and keep a proper exit strategy.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 24700
Resistance 1 - 25158
Support 2 - 24650
Resistance 2 - 25350
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 23, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 31.68%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 34.91%
as market closed at 10382.70 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 6.40
points against a premium of 17.40 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 42.60
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 15.92 to 14.83. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.18 to 1.41 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JPASSOCIAT, SUZLON, GMRINFRA,
ADANIPOWER and FORTIS.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs continued selling in cash market segment to the tune
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
of Rs. 2335 crores. While, they were net sellers in index
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
futures of Rs. 1746 crores with significant fall in open
BIOCON
8145000
7.35
619.75
5.70
interest, mainly due to expiry.
DABUR
11027500
5.43
327.10
-2.23
In index options front, they were net buyers of Rs. 2085
IDEA
81277000
1.90
81.20
-2.51
crores with fall in open interest. Being start of new series,
the overall build-up is quite scattered between 10500-
11000 call and
9700-10400 put options. Now,
maximum open interest concentration for March series is
placed at 11000 call followed by 10700 strike; whereas,
in put options it is firmly placed at 10000 strike.
Despite being an expiry day, we hardly saw any major
price action in index. Rollover (62.34%) in Nifty is
OI Losers
below averages in terms of both percentage as well as
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
OI. We believe majority of long positions which were
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
rolled to February series have been lightened up
BHARATFORG
6130800
-55.22
756.20
-0.34
ACC
1138800
-37.48
1632.35
-0.96
resulting March series starting with a lower base. At
the same time, FIIs too exited decent amount of longs
IOC
13858500
-37.43
363.20
-0.83
and rolled good amount of short positions formed last
BHEL
41715000
-37.26
91.25
-0.60
series. Now, their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ has
NHPC
44631000
-35.68
26.60
-2.37
declined from 80% to 49% series on series; which
SRF
428500
-34.28
1899.45
0.40
certainly is not a good indication for Bulls.
COALINDIA
14304400
-32.93
311.55
-0.55
Considering the above data, we would advise traders
ICICIBANK
68296250
-30.32
318.35
-0.51
to avoid any bottom fishing as we may see further
pain going ahead.
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.41
0.92
COLPAL
23.69
BANKNIFTY
1.15
0.82
SIEMENS
32.22
PNB
0.77
0.67
BIOCON
56.25
SUNPHARMA
0.41
0.34
DABUR
22.58
SBIN
0.59
0.59
VGUARD
46.04
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 23, 2018
FII Statistics for February 22, 2018
Turnover on February 22, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
5586.97
7333.08
(1746.11)
139838
11480.36
(52.14)
524237
43879.06
57.59
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
103367.47
101282.77
2084.71
576151
45999.30
(46.83)
13146773
1160873.79
58.44
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
30190.74
28503.59
1687.14
983539
69090.80
(12.77)
STOCK
FUTURES
2156958
147586.23
24.92
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
3310.97
3030.86
280.11
1878
127.13
(98.28)
702939
51651.57
5.93
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
142456.15
140150.30
2305.85
1701406
126697.59
(34.87)
TOTAL
16530907
1403990.64
51.39
Nifty Spot = 10382.70
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10400
163.85
Buy
10400
175.70
50.95
49.05
10450.95
39.05
60.95
10360.95
Sell
10500
112.90
Sell
10300
136.65
Buy
10400
163.85
Buy
10400
175.70
91.40
108.60
10491.40
70.85
129.15
10329.15
Sell
10600
72.45
Sell
10200
104.85
Buy
10500
112.90
Buy
10300
136.65
40.45
59.55
10540.45
31.80
68.20
10268.20
Sell
10600
72.45
Sell
10200
104.85
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 23, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
388
396
401
409
414
AMBUJACEM
253
255
257
259
261
ASIANPAINT
1,090
1,104
1,115
1,129
1,141
AUROPHARMA
546
566
582
602
617
AXISBANK
524
527
531
534
537
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,936
2,955
2,985
3,004
3,034
BAJFINANCE
1,557
1,579
1,598
1,620
1,639
BPCL
419
423
430
434
440
BHARTIARTL
410
413
416
419
422
INFRATEL
326
330
334
338
342
BOSCHLTD
18,351
18,620
18,857
19,127
19,363
CIPLA
581
585
591
596
602
COALINDIA
303
307
311
316
320
DRREDDY
2,041
2,082
2,128
2,169
2,214
EICHERMOT
26,323
26,596
26,973
27,246
27,623
GAIL
449
458
464
473
479
HCLTECH
914
927
945
959
977
HDFCBANK
1,833
1,843
1,852
1,862
1,870
HDFC
1,800
1,810
1,817
1,827
1,835
HEROMOTOCO
3,439
3,460
3,480
3,501
3,520
HINDALCO
231
236
238
243
245
HINDPETRO
377
380
383
387
390
HINDUNILVR
1,304
1,315
1,325
1,336
1,345
IBULHSGFIN
1,218
1,243
1,258
1,282
1,297
ICICIBANK
312
315
317
320
323
IOC
357
360
364
367
370
INDUSINDBK
1,569
1,596
1,614
1,641
1,658
INFY
1,132
1,146
1,155
1,170
1,179
ITC
264
265
267
269
271
KOTAKBANK
1,040
1,056
1,067
1,083
1,094
LT
1,267
1,279
1,289
1,301
1,311
LUPIN
785
792
804
812
823
M&M
692
707
716
731
740
MARUTI
8,501
8,567
8,668
8,735
8,836
NTPC
159
160
161
162
163
ONGC
183
185
187
188
190
POWERGRID
186
188
191
193
197
RELIANCE
914
919
925
930
936
SBIN
268
270
272
274
276
SUNPHARMA
514
528
537
551
560
TCS
2,994
3,022
3,051
3,079
3,107
TATAMOTORS
354
356
360
362
365
TATASTEEL
624
631
639
646
654
TECHM
586
594
600
609
615
ULTRACEMCO
4,042
4,071
4,101
4,130
4,161
UPL
664
670
678
684
693
VEDANTA
319
324
327
332
336
WIPRO
289
291
293
294
296
YESBANK
305
311
314
319
322
ZEEL
561
564
568
571
575
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 23, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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