Technical & Derivatives Report
January 23, 2018
Sensex (35798) / Nifty (10966)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
It seems that our markets are replicating last January’s performance
as we can see addition of another 4% move from December (2017)
close. We must accept the fact there has been no mercy for short
sellers and in fact, buyers are also afraid of this ‘Fast and Furious’
move. Due to yesterdays up move, the Nifty is now at a kissing
distance from yet another huge milestone of 11000.
Yesterday, we saw index opening with a negligible upside gap and
then retraced back a bit in the initial trade. However, once again, the
strong buying interest emerged tad above Friday’s low and then went
on to clock yet another record high. Technically, it’s difficult to give
any particular level as the market has entered an uncharted territory.
Hence, the psychological level of 11000 would be seen as next
junction, which is just a formality now. After this, if we have to see
any particular point then we can see 11100 as a next important
junction. Of late, there has been no respect to any resistance; but,
since this level is projected by taking 161% price extension of the rally
seen during 2008 - 10; we thought of highlighting it. On the lower
side, 10881 - 10782 would be seen as key support levels. Although,
the banking index clocked 27000 yesterday, the intraday rally was
mainly propelled by four heavyweight marquee oldies, the Reliance,
TCS, ONGC and L&T. Except ONGC, all other names are at record
highs and have been amongst the major contributors in the success
our markets have seen in last 13 months. Going ahead, we continue
to remain upbeat in some of the ‘Pharmaceutical’ names like, Sun
Pharma, Divis Lab and Dr Reddy and on the other hand, ‘Metal’
pack still looks vulnerable.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10930
Resistance 1 - 11000
Support 2 - 10881
Resistance 2 - 11045
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (27041)
Post opening on a flat to positive note, the Nifty Bank Index gradually
moved higher during the session to mark a new milestone of 27000
to end with gains of around half a percent. PSU Bank Index remained
subdued ending with a loss of around 0.68% while PVT Bank Index
continued their outperformance to end with gains of 1.31%.
Following the bullish breakout around 26000 levels witnessed on
15th Jan, The Bank Nifty Index has almost achieved the target of the
pattern of 27100 in last six trading sessions. With the said vertical
rally, the momentum oscillator has now entered the overbought
territory and hence we sense, the Bank Nifty may see some profit
booking at higher levels. As far as levels are concerned, resistance is
placed around 27150-27260 levels while on the flip side support is
placed around 26900 - 26830 levels. We continue with our advice to
follow a stock-specific approach which is likely to give better returns.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 26900
Resistance 1 - 27150
Support 2 - 26830
Resistance 2 - 27260
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 23, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.17%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 5.22%
as market closed at 10966.20 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 1.80
points against a premium of 6.35 points in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
26.30 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 13.86 to 14.09. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 1.74
to 1.79 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IFCI, BALRAMCHIN, CASTROLIND, DISHTV
and SOUTHBANK.
Views
FIIs continue their buying streak in cash market segment,
OI Gainers
they bought to the tune of Rs. 1568 crores. At the same
OI
PRICE
time, they were net sellers in index futures of Rs. 1804
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
crores with rise in open interest, indicating short
JPASSOCIAT
300492000
31.85
21.95
1.15
formation in yesterday’s trading session.
NIITTECH
1677000
23.13
765.75
5.05
In index options front, they sold of Rs. 3511 crores with
VGUARD
3633000
19.08
247.60
3.12
rise in open interest. In call option, 11050-11200 strikes
HAVELLS
4114000
18.08
552.65
0.79
added fresh positions; while, meaningful unwinding was
MINDTREE
3422400
17.37
757.35
7.65
seen in 10700-10850 and 11000 call options. On the
CGPOWER
26508000
11.51
96.40
0.63
flip side, huge build-up was seen in 10900-11000 put
ACC
1510000
11.36
1827.20
-0.50
options. Maximum concentration of OI remains intact in
BAJAJ-AUTO
2262750
10.65
3274.50
2.28
11000 call and in case of put options has shifted higher
to 10800 mark.
We started this week with index clocking fresh record
OI Losers
highs. As far as FIIs activities are concerned, they
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
continued pouring liquidity through cash market
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
segment. Meanwhile, they also added fresh longs in
INDIACEM
27230000
-76.46
184.75
0.49
stock futures along with writing in index put options.
JSWENERGY
32070500
-10.38
88.70
-3.48
However, they were net sellers in index futures.
ICIL
6535000
-9.17
116.70
-2.50
Considering the above data points, we believe 10800-
SYNDIBANK
23841000
-8.91
77.15
-2.27
10850 has become a strong support for index now;
ADANIENT
20664000
-8.86
198.90
-0.35
whereas, Nifty put options activities suggests, fresh
CONCOR
1322500
-8.68
1483.25
0.59
writing in 10900 and 11000 puts by stronger hands.
MRPL
11632500
-7.74
129.85
2.57
Hence, we would still advise traders should avoid any
VOLTAS
2889000
-7.23
624.95
0.97
bearish bets unless we don’t see any meaningful change
in data.
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.79
1.13
RELIANCE
27.72
BANKNIFTY
1.30
0.80
BHEL
43.78
RELIANCE
0.46
0.31
TCS
38.11
INFY
1.09
0.45
JUBLFOOD
58.47
TATAMOTORS
0.35
0.43
GODREJCP
30.17
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 23, 2018
FII Statistics for January 22, 2018
Turnover on January 22, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
4603.94
6408.31
(1804.37)
303767
25913.49
5.02
279320
24818.42
0.55
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
61227.98
64739.03
(3511.05)
1059046
90028.85
1.46
5793041
529830.18
-10.45
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
21715.08
20638.07
1077.02
996103
75716.35
(0.14)
STOCK
FUTURES
1308387
101824.18
35.21
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
13600.14
13370.42
229.72
124905
9872.60
1.61
900873
75158.42
15.06
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
101147.14
105155.82
(4008.68)
2483821
201531.29
1.24
TOTAL
8281621
731631.19
-3.34
Nifty Spot = 10966.20
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
11000
35.10
Buy
110000
51.40
25.65
74.35
11025.65
28.15
71.85
109971.85
Sell
11100
9.45
Sell
109900
23.25
Buy
11000
35.10
Buy
110000
51.40
31.40
168.60
11031.40
39.40
160.60
109960.60
Sell
11200
3.70
Sell
109800
12.00
Buy
11100
9.45
Buy
109900
23.25
5.75
94.25
11105.75
11.25
88.75
109888.75
Sell
11200
3.70
Sell
109800
12.00
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 23, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
427
433
438
443
449
AMBUJACEM
264
266
268
270
272
ASIANPAINT
1,148
1,162
1,178
1,192
1,208
AUROPHARMA
632
637
640
645
648
AXISBANK
567
589
605
628
644
BAJAJ-AUTO
3,170
3,222
3,253
3,305
3,336
BAJFINANCE
1,655
1,681
1,703
1,729
1,751
BPCL
457
463
471
478
486
BHARTIARTL
482
486
492
497
503
INFRATEL
335
339
344
348
353
BOSCHLTD
19,711
19,846
20,010
20,146
20,310
CIPLA
588
595
600
606
612
COALINDIA
280
283
286
289
292
DRREDDY
2,406
2,451
2,485
2,530
2,564
EICHERMOT
27,271
27,461
27,779
27,968
28,287
GAIL
440
448
460
469
481
HCLTECH
932
949
962
979
992
HDFCBANK
1,933
1,948
1,968
1,983
2,003
HDFC
1,826
1,849
1,887
1,910
1,947
HEROMOTOCO
3,572
3,587
3,605
3,620
3,637
HINDALCO
247
251
255
259
263
HINDPETRO
389
395
405
412
421
HINDUNILVR
1,337
1,346
1,356
1,365
1,374
IBULHSGFIN
1,276
1,316
1,340
1,379
1,403
ICICIBANK
342
347
350
355
358
IOC
374
378
383
388
393
INDUSINDBK
1,666
1,675
1,685
1,694
1,704
INFY
1,121
1,136
1,146
1,161
1,171
ITC
270
272
274
276
277
KOTAKBANK
1,031
1,053
1,065
1,087
1,100
LT
1,249
1,324
1,364
1,439
1,478
LUPIN
913
921
927
936
942
M&M
749
754
762
767
775
MARUTI
9,228
9,269
9,313
9,354
9,398
NTPC
171
171
172
173
174
ONGC
194
197
202
205
210
POWERGRID
194
195
196
197
198
RELIANCE
928
950
962
984
996
SBIN
302
304
306
309
311
SUNPHARMA
565
570
575
580
585
TCS
2,845
2,981
3,058
3,193
3,270
TATAMOTORS
416
419
422
425
428
TATASTEEL
743
748
752
757
761
TECHM
541
555
564
578
587
ULTRACEMCO
4,228
4,279
4,312
4,363
4,395
UPL
798
806
813
821
828
VEDANTA
320
323
328
332
336
WIPRO
311
316
323
328
334
YESBANK
345
350
354
359
364
ZEEL
589
599
608
618
627
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 23, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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