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December 22, 2020
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
29456)
Yesterday, Bank Index started on a weak note and it immediately
slipped below Friday's low. Subsequently, the bank index
attempted to bounce back however along with the broader
markets it witnessed a sharp sell-off to eventually end with a loss
of more than 4% at the 29456 level. For the last few sessions, the
bank nifty was trading in a very tight range and was struggling to
surpass the 31000 level. We had mentioned a formation of a
Rising Wedge pattern on the daily chart and after breaking below
the same we witnessed a sharp selloff yesterday. Now with
yesterday's fall, the short-term charts have been distorted and we
can expect a further correction in the near term towards 28650-
28470 levels. On the flip side, any bounce back in the coming
session may face resistance around 29800 - 30000 levels.
Volatility is also likely to spike and hence traders are advised to
keep positions light and avoid aggressive bets.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29000 Resistance 1 – 29800
Support 2 – 28650 Resistance 2 – 30000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
45555)
/ Nifty
(
13328
)
Markets have been enjoying a strong Bull Run over the past two
months now. Last week, the benchmark index hit a fresh record
high above 13700 and yesterday too despite having some sluggish
start, Nifty managed to post a new high of 13777.50 in the initial
hours. However, some fresh unfavorable developments over the
weekend with respect to COVID-19 in major European countries
spooked traders across the globe post the mid session. The initial
profit booking then turned into a massive sell off in the latter half
to shed more than 600 points at one point. Eventually, the Nifty
ended the session with over three percent cut to mark its biggest
intraday loss in the last few months.
Yesterday’s correction finally validated our recent cautious stance
and this is how the market generally traps market participants.
Despite the market hitting new record highs in the last couple of
weeks, we have been repeatedly advocating on booking profits and
staying light. It might have looked silly but we remained firm on our
stance, which finally paid off. Now, the brakes have been applied to
the recent euphoria and for a time being, yesterday’s high will
remain a record high for our markets. With yesterday’s sharp fall,
we can see the last twelve day’s gains going for a toss, a classic
revenge from the mighty bears. For the coming session, any
bounce back towards 13450 – 13550 is likely to get sold into;
whereas on the lower side, Nifty has reached its first level of
retracement i.e. the ’89-EMA’ level (13100) on the ‘180-minutes’
chart. Ideally, the next level of the natural profit booking is around
12800, which is the ‘200-SMA’ level on the same time frame chart.
But before this, yesterday’s low of 13130, would be seen as
immediate support for the index
.
Traders are continuously advised to stay light and avoid taking
contradictory bets in the coming session. With a larger view, this
correction should be interpreted as a healthy sign and it will
certainly provide better opportunities to enter marquee names on
correction. But for momentum traders, the way chart structure
seems distorted; it has certainly dented the recent optimism.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 13200 Resistance 1 – 13450
Support 2 – 13130 Resistance2 – 13550
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Technical & Derivatives Report
December 22, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
12200
12400
12600
12800
13000
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
11/25 11/27 12/2 12/4 12/8 12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Yesterday, we started the session in red and saw
follow-up selling to drag index towards 13300
mark. Eventually, Nifty concluded the day with a
massive cut of 3.14%
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 324 crore. In index future segment, they sold worth
Rs. 265 cr with some rise in open interest indicating
they added fresh short positions in yesterday’s
session.
In F&O segment, we saw good amount of long
unwinding in Nifty and in case of banking index, we
witnessed huge short formation. In options front,
strong writingtook place in 13500-14000 call
options. On the otherside, seeing the sharp fall put
writers of 13350-13900 strikes covered their
positions. We have been mentioning in our
previous reports that market has been overbought
and finally we saw decent fall in yesterday session.
Now, traders are advised to wait for follow-up
activity befor initiating any directional trades.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 9.22%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
15.96% as market closed at 13760.55 levels.
The Nifty December future closed with a premium 1.38
point against a premium of 13.50 point in last trading
session. The January series closed at a premium of 48.65
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 19.68 to 23.19.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.62 to 1.12.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are CANBK, IDEA, DIVISLAB, GMRINFRA and
ONGC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CUMMINSIND 2176800 14.09 612.05 3.86
SAIL 110865000 9.97 57.80 0.17
AMARAJABAT 1921000 9.71 955.70 0.84
TATASTEEL 40409000 7.82 631.25 -0.49
IOC 59271500 7.48 93.95 -1.36
PETRONET 13854000 7.37 257.70 -0.81
MFSL 8676200 7.37 648.20 -1.39
APOLLOTYRE 10630000 7.10 191.50 -2.66
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
M&MFIN 9550620 -28.73 165.85 -6.41
MINDTREE 1229600 -21.14 1427.15 -3.74
MFSL 7224100 -16.74 643.20 -1.18
SAIL 94221000 -15.01 55.35 -3.74
CUMMINSIND 1850400 -14.99 576.10 -6.30
GODREJCP 5688000 -12.56 703.50 -2.45
CHOLAFIN 4160000 -12.10 354.85 -5.69
BEL 31555200 -10.38 111.95 -7.75
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.12 0.94
BANKNIFTY 0.62 1.00
RELIANCE 0.46 0.35
ICICIBANK 0.56 0.69
INFY 0.68 0.52
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
NATIONALUM 53.46
IOC 41.11
TATAPOWER 52.29
TORNTPOWER 38.66
ONGC 55.30
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Technical & Derivatives Report
December 22, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (December Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
13328.40
FII Statistics for December 21, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
7238.94 7503.87 (264.93) 154890 14629.23 0.41
INDEX
OPTIONS
461084.04 459839.06 1244.98
1009369 95120.89 16.40
STOCK
FUTURES
23070.36 21549.62 1520.74
1293125 99922.71 (0.70)
STOCK
OPTIONS
13744.95 13883.21 (138.26) 106685 8307.66 3.74
Total 505138.29
502775.76
2362.53
2564069
217980.49
5.67
Turnover on December 21, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
6,27,641 54837.18 84.13
Index
Options
3,36,94,362
29,63,334.76
116.13
Stock Futures
11,47,374
91409.30 45.54
Stock
Options
24,13,491
2,02,251.14
52.71
Total
3,78,82,868
33,11,832.38
107.49
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 13300 213.65
52.90 47.10 13352.90
Sell 13400 160.75
Buy 13300 213.65
99.55 100.45 13399.55
Sell 13500 114.10
Buy 13400 160.75
46.65 53.35 13446.65
Sell 13500 114.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 13300 184.20
35.30 64.70 13264.70
Sell 13200 148.90
Buy 13300 184.20
67.85 132.15 13232.15
Sell 13100 116.35
Buy 13200 148.90
32.55 67.45 13167.45
Sell 13100 116.35
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
12800 12900 13000 13100 13200 13300 13400 13500 13600 13700 13800 13900 14000 14100
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
December 22, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
406
425
446
465
486
ASIANPAINT 2,502 2,528
2,565
2,592
2,629
AXISBANK
554
568
588
602
622
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,107 3,173
3,264
3,329
3,420
BAJFINANCE 4,731 4,886
5,061
5,216
5,390
BAJAJFINSV 8,212 8,529
8,887
9,205
9,562
BPCL
337
352
373
388
408
BHARTIARTL
463
477
494
508
525
BRITANNIA 3,436 3,530
3,629
3,722
3,821
CIPLA
728
753
785
810
842
COALINDIA
122
128
135
140
147
DIVISLAB 3,400 3,517
3,661
3,777
3,921
DRREDDY 4,789 4,929
5,102
5,241
5,414
EICHERMOT 2,255 2,326
2,411
2,482
2,568
GAIL
105
110
117
122
130
GRASIM
844
860
885
902
927
HCLTECH
816
843
877
904
937
HDFCBANK 1,331 1,352
1,388
1,409
1,445
HDFCLIFE
598
613
633
649
669
HDFC 2,313 2,364
2,421
2,472
2,530
HEROMOTOCO 2,823 2,908
3,031
3,116
3,239
HINDALCO
216
224
237
245
258
HINDUNILVR 2,222 2,264
2,307
2,349
2,392
ICICIBANK
473
484
499
510
526
IOC
80
83
88
92
97
INDUSINDBK
763
803
854
894
946
INFY 1,122 1,150
1,180
1,207
1,237
ITC
190
197
206
212
221
JSW STEEL
331
342
355
367
380
KOTAKBANK 1,878 1,899
1,929
1,951
1,981
LT 1,058 1,146
1,242
1,331
1,427
M&M
622
654
692
724
762
MARUTI 7,097 7,236
7,418
7,557
7,739
NESTLEIND 17,849
18,021
18,273
18,445
18,697
NTPC
90
94
99
103
108
ONGC
83
86
93
96
103
POWERGRID
179
182
188
191
196
RELIANCE 1,772 1,856
1,939
2,023
2,106
SBILIFE
814
828
846
859
877
SHREECEM 22,538
23,128
23,839
24,429
25,140
SBIN
240
248
258
265
276
SUNPHARMA
513
533
559
579
606
TCS 2,729 2,775
2,831
2,876
2,932
TATAMOTORS
153
159
168
174
183
TATASTEEL
561
578
603
621
645
TECHM
859
883
914
938
968
TITAN 1,406 1,439
1,484
1,516
1,561
ULTRACEMCO 4,697 4,852
5,021
5,177
5,346
UPL
395
416
438
460
482
WIPRO
337
346
357
365
376
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Technical & Derivatives Report
December 22, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: [email protected]angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: deri[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives same[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com