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March 22, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
34162)
On Friday, the Bank Nifty as well started on a negative note and
slipped further to mark an intraday low of 33361. Post the first
hour of weakness, the bank index witnessed a bounce back along
with the broader markets that not only erased the morning loss
but to end with gains of 0.90% at 34162.
With the oscillators in the oversold zone and prices approaching
the key support zone, a bounce-back was evident. Now the prices
have closed just below the 50SMA and the follow-up move post
the bounce is crucial. We sense the previous support around
34700 - 34800 can now act as resistance whereas 33300 remains
a strong support zone. Traders are advised to have a stock-
specific approach however we remain cautious and hence avoid
aggressive bets.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 33500 Resistance 1 – 34700
Support 2 – 33300 Resistance 2 – 34800
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (49858) / Nifty (14744)
During the last week, we started the proceedings on a flat note on
Monday as there was no major trigger on the domestic as well as
global front. However as the week progressed, market started
drifting lower. The real momentum was seen in the latter half as we
saw Nifty sliding below 14400 on Friday. But on the same day, we
witnessed a smart recovery in the market to not only pare down all
losses but also to close with more than 150 points gains. Due to
this tail end surge, the Nifty was well off its morning’s low to
reclaim the 14700 mark.
Since last few days, key indices were range bound but if we
meticulously observe the price action of individual stocks
(especially from the F&O universe), some sort of distribution was
clearly visible. The decline in Nifty and other key indices in the
latter half of the week was the outcome of the overall selling
happening in the individual stocks. In the process, the index
managed to fill the gap of 14470 14330 created on the following
day of Union budget (February 02, 2021). Since market was a bit
oversold, some sort of rebound was evident; but the kind of v-
shaped recovery we witnessed, was clearly unexpected to us.
Hence, although our recent cautious stance has played out well, we
need to see how market behaves in the first half of this week. On
the higher side, 14875 15050 are the levels to watch out for;
whereas on the lower side, 14450 14350 becomes a key support
zone. The major corrective move is possible only below 14330,
until then expect the index to remain in a broad range.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Traders are advised to be stock specific for a while and till the time,
Nifty does not surpass 15050, we are likely to see some pressure at
higher levels. Hence, one should remain light and trade with proper
risk management as we step into the monthly expiry week.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14450 Resistance 1 – 14875
Support 2 – 14350 Resistance2 – 15050
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 22, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2/25 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/9 3/12 3/17 3/19
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
During the week, we started almost flat and then saw
follow-up selling to sneak below 14750. As the week
progressed, the selling pressure accelerated to
correct below support of 14500 and on Friday
plunged to 14350. However, smart recovery on the
same day recouped all the intraday losses and in fact
Nifty managed to conclude around 14750
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune
of Rs. 1418 crores. In Index Future segment, they
bought worth Rs. 1507 crores with decent fall in open
interest indicating covering of decent shorts on
Friday.
In F&O space, the fall seen in Nifty was mainly due to
long unwinding and banking index added shorts. On
Friday, we saw decent unwinding in 14700-15000 call
options; whereas, fresh writing was seen in 14400-
14500 put strikes. As far as stronger hands activities
are concerned, we saw them adding frew longs and
covering shorts; hence, resulting their ‘Long Short
Ratiosurging from 59% to 64% week on week. Now
considering the overall F&O activities; we believe
14300-14400 may act as a demand zone; whereas,
14900-15000 is the immediate hurdle now
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.00%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.98%
as market closed at 14744 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 12.45
point against a premium of 19.20 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 88.22
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 20.08 to 19.98.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
0.83 to 1.20.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, MGL, MUTHOOTFIN, PETRONET and
HDFCAMC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CUMMINSIND 2038800 32.63 896.45 4.43
CHOLAFIN 5392500 32.01 552.85 4.26
AARTIIND 368050 11.03 1256.80 1.15
M&MFIN 12804000 10.34 215.10 6.90
INDUSTOWER 11925200 9.37 263.50 2.59
M&M 7908600 8.59 850.30 0.39
COFORGE 503250 7.96 2966.80 3.17
NMDC 44789500 7.82 133.35 0.83
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TVSMOTOR 3452400 -11.83 584.05 2.12
APOLLOTYRE 11975000 -11.07 225.10 3.54
LICHSGFIN 8210000 -11.01 416.45 1.72
ITC 111779200 -10.29 222.95 2.52
TATACHEM 9298000 -7.90 752.05 4.74
ASHOKLEY 46809000 -7.85 116.30 2.33
HDFCAMC 513200 -7.06 2871.00 0.98
IGL 5820375 -6.82 511.20 4.68
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.20 0.87
BANKNIFTY 0.85 0.86
RELIANCE 0.41 0.51
ICICIBANK 0.42 0.47
INFY 0.79 0.68
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HINDUNILVR 32.78
IGL 45.72
POWERGRID 38.39
TATACHEM 47.63
NTPC 38.83
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 22, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14744
FII Statistics for March 19, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
8952.31 7445.28 1507.03
124701 12919.03 (6.53)
INDEX
OPTIONS
411427.93 410391.25 1036.68
932851 98157.29 21.77
STOCK
FUTURES
20450.35 18954.18 1496.17
1148593 97830.98 0.40
STOCK
OPTIONS
22043.83 21941.50 102.33
171143 14396.20 2.20
Total 462874.42
458732.21
4142.21
2377288
223303.50
7.52
Turnover on March 19, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
6,07,677 58177.11 21.42
Index Options
2,80,97,071 27,26,917.31 -69.51
Stock Futures
10,90,308 96427.18 27.33
Stock Options
24,81,521 2,20,121.95 16.15
Total 3,22,76,577 31,01,643.55 -66.49
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14800 144.90
47.20 52.80 14847.20
Sell 14900 97.70
Buy 14800 144.90
81.95 118.05 14881.95
Sell 15000 62.95
Buy 14900 97.70
34.75 65.25 14934.75
Sell 15000 62.95
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14800 197.95
40.95 59.05 14759.05
Sell 14700 157.00
Buy 14800 197.95
79.40 120.60 14720.60
Sell 14600 118.55
Buy 14700 157.00
38.45 61.55 14661.55
Sell 14600 118.55
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 22, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
644
665
678
699
713
ASIANPAINT 2,322 2,366
2,400
2,445
2,479
AXISBANK
694
710
720
736
746
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,528 3,589
3,631
3,692
3,734
BAJFINANCE 5,085 5,269
5,374
5,558
5,663
BAJAJFINSV 9,102 9,272
9,381
9,550
9,659
BPCL
411
422
430
441
449
BHARTIARTL
521
525
530
535
539
BRITANNIA 3,331 3,399
3,447
3,515
3,563
CIPLA
726
743
755
773
784
COALINDIA
130
133
137
140
143
DIVISLAB 3,057 3,214
3,310
3,467
3,563
DRREDDY 4,068 4,171
4,238
4,342
4,409
EICHERMOT 2,569 2,615
2,646
2,692
2,723
GAIL
122
129
133
140
145
GRASIM 1,344 1,378
1,396
1,430
1,448
HCLTECH
924
942
956
974
987
HDFCBANK 1,457 1,477
1,494
1,514
1,531
HDFCLIFE
668
678
684
694
700
HDFC 2,441 2,487
2,527
2,572
2,612
HEROMOTOCO 3,000 3,059
3,096
3,155
3,192
HINDALCO
313
324
332
343
351
HINDUNILVR 2,143 2,227
2,276
2,361
2,410
ICICIBANK
563
575
582
594
601
IOC
94
96
98
100
102
INDUSINDBK
966
989
1,004
1,027
1,042
INFY 1,302 1,323
1,339
1,360
1,376
ITC
211
217
222
228
232
JSW STEEL
396
418
432
455
469
KOTAKBANK 1,782 1,808
1,840
1,866
1,898
LT 1,361 1,386
1,404
1,429
1,447
M&M
804
827
844
867
883
MARUTI 6,812 6,963
7,056
7,207
7,301
NESTLEIND 15,847
16,149
16,372
16,674
16,897
NTPC
99
104
107
111
114
ONGC
101
106
109
114
118
POWERGRID
214
222
227
235
240
RELIANCE 1,941 2,011
2,054
2,124
2,167
SBILIFE
872
889
900
917
927
SHREECEM 25,700
26,318
26,718
27,337
27,737
SBIN
351
361
367
377
383
SUNPHARMA
554
566
574
587
595
TCS 2,957 3,004
3,051
3,098
3,145
TATAMOTORS
283
296
303
317
324
TATASTEEL
662
697
717
753
773
TECHM
963
976
988
1,002
1,014
TITAN 1,417 1,441
1,456
1,480
1,495
ULTRACEMCO 6,249 6,460
6,580
6,792
6,912
UPL
571
598
614
641
656
WIPRO
394
402
408
416
422
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 22, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearc[email protected]
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com