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January 22, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
32187)
US markets were cheerful previous night so as yesterday morning
(Dow Futures) after the oath taking ceremony of Joe Biden as 46th
US President. This clearly had a rub off effect on our markets as
well. BANKNIFTY started the session higher and then extended
gains to clock fresh record high of 32842.30 at the midsession.
However, all of a sudden the selling augmented in the market after
2 pm to not only pare down all gains but also to close well inside
the negative territory. BANKNIFTY was enjoying its northward
move in the first half and everything looked hunky dory until the
nosedive started in last one and half hours of trade. It is hard to
gauge what triggered this sell off but probably it started after the
disappointing set of numbers from Bandhan Bank. May be it’s just
a broad based profit booking that coincided around the same time
on the weekly expiry day. Reason could be anything, but as
mentioned in our previous commentary, 32700-33000 is to be
seen as strong resistance and yesterday’s sell off exactly triggered
after entering this zone. Since we can observe 3-points negative
divergence in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ in all major indices, one should
avoid aggressive longs. On the lower side, 32000 can be
considered as key support, below which we may see some
extended correction.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 32000 Resistance 1 – 32700
Support 2 – 31800 Resistance 2 – 33000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
49625)
/ Nifty
(
14590
)
The Nifty index opened on a positive note and surpassed the 14750
mark for the first time. It consolidated at higher level for most part
of the session, however, the indices corrected sharply after 2 pm and
Nifty ended the day tad below 14600.
During most part of the day, the indices were trading on a positive
note and the Nifty even marked a high over 14750. However, the
weekly expiry session resulted in some serious profit booking in the
later half and both Nifty as well as the Bank Nifty not only wiped out
its morning gains, but ended the session in the red. On the daily
chart of Nifty, we can observe a negative divergence between price
and the RSI oscillator as the price has surpassed the recent swing
high and has made a ‘Higher High’, but the RSI has made a ‘Lower
High’ in the same time frame. This divergence, and the profit
booking that we saw in the broader markets in the later half
yesterday indicates that although the trend is positive, one should
look out to book profits on the long positions and avoid aggressive
positions for time being. The Banking index has consolidated within
a range of 32860-31690 in last few sessions, and a breakout beyond
this range could then lead to a directional move in this space which
could drive the momentum in Nifty as well.
Also, the Midcap index is trading at a crucial juncture around the
resistance as per Fibonacci ratios. Hence, until we see a follow up
buying above this week’s high, some bouts of profit booking could
be seen in this space too. Hence, we continue with our advice for
traders to look for stock specific trading opportunities and also focus
on timely exits on trading positions. As far as levels are concerned,
the supports for Nifty are placed around 14500 and 14410 whereas
resistance is seen in the range of 14700-14750.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14500 Resistance 1 – 14700
Support 2 – 14410 Resistance2 – 14750
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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January 22, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
13700
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
1/1 1/5 1/7 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/19 1/21
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post last two sessions strong upmove, we began the weekly
expiry day on a cheerful note tad above 14700 mark. As the
day progressed, the benchmark consolidated for initial few
hours and then all of a sudden we witnessed a sharp sell-off
to drag index towards 11500 mark. Eventually, due to some
recovery in last few minutes index concluded the day tad
below 14600 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 1615 crore. In index future segment, they bought worth
Rs. 1102 crore with increase in open interest indicating long
formation in yesterday’s session.
In yesterday's session, we witnessed open interest addition
in the Bank Nifty. FII's added long positions in index futures.
However, recently we saw stronger hands unwinding their
longs and their index futures ‘Long short Ratio’ plunged to
66% from 80%(seen during start of January series), which
indicates they don’t expect major upside from hereon.
During yesterday’s sell-off, the put writers of 14300-14600
ran to cover their positions. Whereas, meaningful positions
were formed by call writers in 14600 strike. Considering this
development, we believe 14650-14750 to now act as a
hurdle, whereas immediate support is placed around 14500
mark.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.06%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 8.08%
as market closed at 14590.35 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 8.3
point against a premium of 0.45 point in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of 42.35
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 21.55 to 22.18.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.44 to 1.28.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are CUMMINSIND, APOLLOTYRE, IOC, SAIL, IGL
AND JUBLFOOD.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCAMC 498600 23.85 3098.35 -3.76
SRF 437875 21.67 5772.65 -1.74
HAVELLS 5723000 20.71 1131.95 10.60
BERGEPAINT 2978800 17.53 805.30 1.38
MGL 2286000 17.48 1041.70 -3.84
TORNTPOWER 5658000 15.21 327.00 -2.02
BHEL 116319000 13.23 38.75 -4.66
AARTIIND 532525 12.48 1183.95 -2.41
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BOSCHLTD 113500 -9.92 15805.10 -0.44
TORNTPHARM 809500 -8.09 2738.95 0.38
CHOLAFIN 5037500 -7.86 431.70 -5.57
SUNTV 10731000 -7.63 503.95 -4.86
NAUKRI 946500 -6.82 5207.45 0.68
RBLBANK 25377900 -5.91 250.55 -1.18
BANDHANBNK 27412200 -5.69 340.70 -5.73
RELIANCE 32793750 -5.57 2099.30 2.17
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.28 1.09
BANKNIFTY 0.85 0.99
RELIANCE 0.61 0.44
ICICIBANK 0.57 0.45
INFY 0.36 0.35
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HAVELLS 42.95
APOLLOTYRE 53.85
IGL 46.14
VOLTAS 41.99
MGL 46.36
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 22, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14590.35
FII Statistics for January 21, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
4640.63
3538.45
1102.18
135212
13779.49
8.63
INDEX
OPTIONS
545737.20
543688.57
2048.63
660925
67766.85
(25.91)
STOCK
FUTURES
15582.21
15777.57
(195.36) 1221646
101250.92
0.62
STOCK
OPTIONS
16528.44
16451.23
77.21
188034
15717.87
0.57
Total 582488.48
579455.82
3032.66
2205817
198515.13
(8.76)
Turnover on January 21, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 3,66,048 34034.24 25.29
Index Options 7,25,49,454
65,15,831.94 113.23
Stock Futures 11,28,319 1,00,893.85 43.53
Stock Options 27,32,007 2,55,566.36 35.29
Total 7,67,75,828
69,06,326.39 106.64
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14600 147.80
50.20 49.80 14650.20
Sell 14700 97.60
Buy 14600 147.80
88.55 111.45 14688.55
Sell 14800 59.25
Buy 14700 97.60
38.35 61.65 14738.35
Sell 14800 59.25
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14600 145.50
38.95 61.05 14561.05
Sell 14500 106.55
Buy 14600 145.50
67.95 132.05 14532.05
Sell 14400 77.55
Buy 14500 106.55
29.00 71.00 14471.00
Sell 14400 77.55
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300
Call Put
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January 22, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
532
540
551
559
570
ASIANPAINT 2,621 2,669
2,743
2,791
2,865
AXISBANK
655
665
680
691
705
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,570 3,637
3,722
3,788
3,874
BAJFINANCE 4,876 4,997
5,111
5,232
5,346
BAJAJFINSV 8,692 8,873
9,131
9,311
9,569
BPCL
394
401
412
419
430
BHARTIARTL
557
569
587
599
616
BRITANNIA 3,569 3,600
3,633
3,664
3,697
CIPLA
790
801
820
832
851
COALINDIA
133
135
139
141
144
DIVISLAB 3,555 3,580
3,615
3,640
3,675
DRREDDY 4,971 5,011
5,075
5,116
5,179
EICHERMOT 2,866 2,896
2,926
2,956
2,986
GAIL
128
131
135
138
142
GRASIM
991
1,004
1,026
1,039
1,060
HCLTECH
962
978
999
1,015
1,036
HDFCBANK 1,453 1,464
1,479
1,490
1,505
HDFCLIFE
691
696
704
709
717
HDFC 2,611 2,637
2,667
2,694
2,724
HEROMOTOCO 3,145 3,196
3,271
3,322
3,397
HINDALCO
242
245
250
253
258
HINDUNILVR 2,323 2,345
2,373
2,395
2,422
ICICIBANK
543
548
554
559
566
IOC
94
95
98
99
101
INDUSINDBK
888
907
937
956
986
INFY 1,319 1,329
1,345
1,356
1,371
ITC
208
211
215
218
222
JSW STEEL
380
387
396
403
412
KOTAKBANK 1,810 1,834
1,869
1,893
1,929
LT 1,341 1,356
1,376
1,391
1,411
M&M
780
794
815
829
849
MARUTI 7,876 7,976
8,122
8,222
8,367
NESTLEIND 17,513
17,614
17,757
17,859
18,002
NTPC
93
95
97
98
101
ONGC
90
92
96
99
103
POWERGRID
192
194
196
197
199
RELIANCE 2,053 2,076
2,098
2,121
2,143
SBILIFE
854
866
887
899
920
SHREECEM 23,176
23,447
23,874
24,145
24,571
SBIN
284
289
297
303
311
SUNPHARMA
569
576
587
594
606
TCS 3,235 3,254
3,282
3,301
3,329
TATAMOTORS
271
281
290
300
309
TATASTEEL
641
654
674
687
708
TECHM
972
988
1,011
1,027
1,050
TITAN 1,489 1,503
1,526
1,541
1,564
ULTRACEMCO 5,432 5,488
5,567
5,623
5,703
UPL
567
576
585
594
603
WIPRO
436
441
447
452
458
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 22, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: te[email protected]angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: d[email protected]angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives [email protected]king.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com