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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 21, 2019
Sensex (40652) / Nifty (11999)
Tuesday’s tail end recovery was followed by a decent bump up at
the opening. Despite SGX Nifty indicating a sluggish start, we
witnessed positivity at the opening which was mainly on the
back of favourable cues on the domestic front. During the first
half, this lead extended to traverse the 12000 mark. However,
during the latter half, index came off a bit due to some profit
booking at higher levels and eventually closed at a kissing
distance from 12000.
The way we closed on Tuesday, things were pretty clear and as
expected we managed to surpass the recent hurdle of 12000 in
the initial hour. Market opted for some profit booking at higher
levels but still we remain upbeat and expect the index to first test
12050 and then move towards the record highs. The ‘buy on
declines strategy should be continued and the banking index is
likely to lead this move. On the lower side, the support is
continuously getting shifted higher; first from 11700 to 11800
and now from 11800 to 11960 – 11900.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11960 Resistance 112050
Support 2 – 11900 Resistance 2 – 12103
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (31354)
The Bank Nifty index continued the previous sessions
momentum with a positive opening. The index consolidated
during the day with a positive bias and ended the session with
gains of over 100 points.
The BankNifty continued its momentum and rallied higher during
the session to almost touch the 31500 mark. However, the index
witnessed some cool-off from the highs and it consolidated in a
range for rest of the session. Since last few weeks BankNifty has
been swiftly moving higher and the overall trend still continues
to be positive. Hence, we continue with our positive stance on
this sector and advise traders to trade with a positive bias. In the
near term, we expect BankNifty to rally towards the 31600-
31700 range. On the flip side, 31115 and 30900 are now seen as
the immediate support levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 31115 Resistance 1 31600
Support 2 – 30900 Resistance 2 31700
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
As far as individual sectors are concerned, as highlighted
previously, individual themes are working well in the market
and yesterday it was once again the recent movers ‘PSUthat
kept buzzing throughout the day. However, the real show
stealer was clearly the ‘Pharma’ space. Since last few days we
have been quite vocal about Pharma’ being in last phase of
correction and soon we would expect some revival. The way
it’s moving since last few days, it’s clearly a sign of unfolding a
decent rally in the near term. Do watch out for this name as we
expect moves to extend in selective marquee names from this
universe.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 21, 2019
Nifty Pharma - (8108)
The ‘Pharma’ sector enjoyed a strong bull run in the period of 20122015 but since then this once a favourite pocket for many, went
completely out of flavour. Barring handful of names, many stocks within this space in last few years had to undergo massive price wise
as well as time wise correction. During the month of October 2019, the Nifty Pharma index had registered a low tad above the 7000
mark and has seen some consolidation since then. As per the Fibonacci Time Retracement Theory, October 2019 was the probable
month of trend reversal for the Nifty Pharma index and in line with this observation, we did see the index showing early signs of revival.
Now, if we look at the recent price action, the Nifty Pharma index first turned the trend from down to sideways and thus, we had seen
a consolidation phase in last one month. This consolidation has set a support base for the index and now finally the stocks within the
sector have started witnessing up moves with an increase in volumes, thus indicating probability of a turnaround in this sector after its
long underperformance. On the daily chart, the Nifty Pharma index has now given a breakout above an 'Inverted Head & Shoulders'
pattern which is a positive sign. Technically, such pattern lead to an up move in short to medium term and thus, we are quite optimistic
on this sector and expect stocks within this space to give decent returns in the near term. As far as levels are concerned, the Nifty
Pharma index is first expected to rally towards its '200 SMA' which is placed around 8350, followed by an up move towards 8650-8700
in next few months. Thus traders are advised to look for stock specific opportunities within this space from a short as well as medium
term perspective. Amongst stock specific names, Lupin, Divis Lab, Sunpharma, Dr.Reddy are few of the marquee names which could
take leadership to drive the Pharma index towards the mentioned target areas.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 21, 2019
Nifty Vs OI
Views
Tuesdays recovery was followed by cheerfull opening
despite SGX Nifty remained hinted a lethargic start.
We witnessed sharp upmove towards 12000 mark but
due to some intraday profit booking in the midst index
concluded the session below 12000 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 567 cr. In index futures, they sold worth Rs.
818 crores with marginal change rise in open interest,
indicating formation of short positions along with
some long unwinding in the previous trading session.
As far as open interest activities in index futures is
concerned, we saw addition decent short covering for
both Nifty as well as BankNifty. In addition, good
amount of longs rolled over in November series are
still intact in the system. Yesterday, call writers of
12000 looked intimated and hence covered their
positions. on the flip side, fresh writing was seen in
11950 and 12000 call options. Considering the overall
positions, we maintain our optimistic stance on the
market and would advise traders to use intraday dip to
add-on fresh longs.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.13%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 1.59% as
market closed at 11999.10 levels.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
19.05 points against a premium of 29.05 points in last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 63.35 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 15.41 to 15.16.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased
from 1.46 to 1.58.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, DISHTV, BANKINDIA, GMRINFRA and
UNIONBANK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
DISHTV 117742900 23.55 16.85 12.58
CONCOR 8318286 15.14 578.15 1.76
TORNTPHARM 354000 13.28 1742.20 -1.03
HINDPETRO 23961000 10.94 295.90 2.24
ZEEL 37726100 10.84 307.00 7.37
CESC 1211200 10.43 749.70 -0.37
CADILAHC 9286000 10.35 249.45 2.64
IOC 37058000 10.01 130.90 -1.39
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 600866000 -19.87 7.05 15.57
BHARTIARTL 40274058 -8.68 437.30 -0.52
APOLLOHOSP 1836000 -7.37 1421.55 0.60
BANKINDIA 16080000 -6.06 73.60 -1.01
HDFCBANK 23102000 -5.75 1273.35 -0.01
CANBK 14688400 -5.54 222.50 0.52
CASTROLIND 5125900 -5.49 152.60 -0.81
CHOLAFIN 4492500 -4.82 319.90 -1.67
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.58 1.01
BANKNIFTY 1.35 0.95
RELIANCE 0.88 0.62
ICICIBANK 0.68 0.64
INFY 0.53 0.38
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SUNPHARMA 40.63
DRREDDY 26.72
LUPIN 36.13
DABUR 30.02
BPCL 49.01
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 21, 2019
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11940.10
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
November
20, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
2400.34 3218.66 (818.32) 222935 18516.56 0.11
INDEX
OPTIONS
249700.45 249560.09 140.36
700891 58821.67 3.46
STOCK
FUTURES
14272.60 14315.36 (42.76) 1579847 93870.14 0.70
STOCK
OPTIONS
6572.78 6651.98 (79.20) 99164 5725.43 5.59
Total 272946.17
273746.09
(799.92) 2602837
176933.80
1.56
Turnover on
November
20
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
274429 20053.61 23.04
INDEX
OPTIONS
12184066 863031.63 32.66
STOCK
FUTURES
825621 46298.96 12.86
STOCK
OPTIONS
924953 56540.69 24.60
TOTAL 1,42,09,069 985924.89 30.89
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12000 98.85
47.95 52.05 12047.95
Sell 12100 50.90
Buy 12000 98.85
76.25 123.75 12076.25
Sell 12200 22.60
Buy 12100 50.90
28.30 71.70 12128.30
Sell 12200 22.60
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12000 80.20
33.80 66.20 11966.20
Sell 11900 46.40
Buy 12000 80.20
51.85 148.15 11948.15
Sell 11800 28.35
Buy 11900 46.40
18.05 81.95 11881.95
Sell 11800 28.35
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 21, 2019
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
356
361
369
375
382
ASIANPAINT
1,696
1,710
1,729
1,743
1,763
AXISBANK
735
742
748
755
761
BAJAJ-AUTO
3,116
3,139
3,154
3,177
3,192
BAJFINANCE
4,095
4,117
4,149
4,171
4,204
BAJAJFINSV
8,983
9,031
9,108
9,156
9,233
BPCL
512
528
538
554
564
BHARTIARTL
421
429
441
449
461
INFRATEL
223
232
246
255
269
BRITANNIA
3,029
3,073
3,104
3,148
3,179
CIPLA
463
473
478
488
493
COALINDIA
198
200
202
205
207
DRREDDY
2,697
2,768
2,816
2,887
2,935
EICHERMOT
21,192
21,341
21,544
21,693
21,896
GAIL
123
124
125
125
126
GRASIM
771
780
791
800
811
HCLTECH
1,120
1,126
1,132
1,139
1,144
HDFCBANK
1,258
1,266
1,274
1,282
1,290
HDFC
2,178
2,189
2,205
2,217
2,232
HEROMOTOCO
2,415
2,443
2,464
2,492
2,513
HINDALCO
188
189
192
193
195
HINDUNILVR
1,996
2,011
2,032
2,047
2,068
ICICIBANK
490
492
495
498
501
IOC
127
129
132
134
136
INDUSINDBK
1,373
1,421
1,450
1,498
1,527
INFY
701
707
711
717
721
ITC
245
248
250
252
254
JSW STEEL
243
246
249
252
255
KOTAKBANK
1,579
1,589
1,606
1,617
1,634
LT
1,352
1,366
1,380
1,394
1,408
M&M
551
556
562
567
573
MARUTI
6,964
7,059
7,138
7,233
7,312
NESTLEIND
13,860
14,044
14,167
14,351
14,473
NTPC
115
116
117
118
118
ONGC
131
132
134
135
137
POWERGRID
193
194
196
198
199
RELIANCE
1,525
1,536
1,554
1,566
1,584
SBIN
321
325
329
333
336
SUNPHARMA
408
429
445
466
482
TCS
2,072
2,090
2,113
2,131
2,153
TATAMOTORS
164
166
168
170
172
TATASTEEL
390
395
402
406
413
TECHM
750
761
767
778
784
TITAN
1,151
1,157
1,162
1,168
1,173
ULTRACEMCO
4,051
4,083
4,106
4,138
4,161
UPL
542
547
552
557
562
VEDANTA
138
140
142
143
145
WIPRO
246
248
250
251
253
YESBANK
60
63
65
68
69
ZEEL
273
290
300
317
327
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 21, 2019
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresea[email protected]ngelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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