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Technical & Derivatives
Report
September 21
, 2020
Bank Out
look
-
(
22
031
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a flat note and then it
consolidated within a range for the major part of the session. In
the penultimate hour however a sudden sharp fall was seen that
dragged bank nifty lower to end with loss of 1.30% tad above
22000 levels.For the last few weeks, the bank nifty has been a clear
underperformer and on Friday it turned to be a major culprit to
pull benchmark index lower from higher levels. During the last few
sessions, the bank index was trading in a very tight range of 22000
- 22800 and on Friday prices sneaked below the lower range and
ended tad around it. Going ahead, if bank index sustains below
22000 then we may see further weakness towards 21400 - 21000
in the near term. With the recent underperformance, 22500 seems
to be a sturdy wall whereas any outperformance can only be seen
if prices sustains above 22800 levels. We sense volatility is likely to
increase and hence traders are advised to avoid undue risk.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21700 Resistance 1 – 22350
Support 2 – 21400 Resistance 2 – 22500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (38846) / Nifty (11505)
In the previous week, our markets managed to defend the key
support around 11250-11200 and had some recovery towards the
fag end. In continuation with this, we started the week on a positive
note. Subsequently, Nifty continued its upwards trajectory but there
was no real momentum in the market. Slowly and steadily Nifty went
slightly beyond the 11600 mark. However, the last couple of sessions
were a bit volatile and had some downward intraday swings to
eventually conclude the week with negligible gains.
During the first half, we participated in an upward move but towards
the fag end, we once again turned a bit cautious as we still believe
that Nifty doesn't have enough strength to go pass the sturdy wall
of 11650-11700 soon. We must either go through some time wise
or price wise correction before heading towards the 12000 mark. To
add to this opinion, we observed a 'Bearish Wolfe’ pattern on the
hourly chart at the end of the Wednesday's session. The said pattern
proved its worth as we witnessed some hiccups towards the latter
part. Since, the overall undertone is strongly bullish, as of now there
are no signs of complete sell off, rather it can be interpreted as a
small profit taking within the consolidation. For this week, 11600-
11650-11700 remains to be a cluster of resistance; whereas on the
lower side, 11450-11380 are to be seen as crucial supports. Any
aggravation below these points would result in an extended
correction in our market.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11450 Resistance 1 – 11600
Support 2 – 11380 Resistance2 – 11650
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
In the last three weeks, we had a couple of reality checks which we
believe to be seen in-between the moves going forward. Hence, one
needs to remain cautious and should ideally avoid aggressive bets
overnight. Banking space continues to be a spoilsport and in fact,
Friday's correction was solely led by banking stocks as the Bank Nifty
slipped below the key support of 22000 during the session. Hence,
one needs to keep a close track on how this heavyweight space
behaves in the first half. Despite all this, we must accept that it was
a week of various individual themes and stocks. IT had a great move
in the initial part and the latter half was completely dominated by
the mesmerizing move in the Pharmaceutical universe. The way
some of the stocks within this space just took off, it was remarkable.
One can still look to participate in such potential movers; but should
adopt a proper risk management strategy.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 21
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Nifty Vs OI
11100
11200
11300
11400
11500
11600
11700
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/1 9/3 9/7 9/9 9/11 9/15 9/17
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
We witnessed some positive biasness during the week
wherein the index surpassed the 11600 mark. However,
the Nifty corrected from the intra-week highs at the fag
end and ended with negligible gains.
FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 205 crores. In index futures, they bought worth
Rs. 1900 crores with decrease in open interest indicating
short covering and some long formations on Friday.
FII’s formed short positions during the week when the
market rallied; but they covered those shorts in Friday’s
session. Their ‘Long Short Ratio’ is thus back around 55
percent which went below 50 percent during the week.
In options segment, writing was seen from 11500-
12000 call options. The open interest data is scattered
on the put side but interestingly, 11500 put option has
good amount of open interest outstanding and the
index has closed around this support. It would be crucial
to see how the put writers act in next couple of sessions.
Overall, there are no signs of any trended move in the
Nifty, and hence, it is advisable for traders to trade with
a stock specific approach and watch out for
developments at the start of the monthly expiry week.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 10.36%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 4.50%
as market closed at 11504.95 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of 10.3
point against a premium of 6.3 point in last trading
session. The October series closed at a premium of 30.9
point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 20.1 to 20.05.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.30
to 1.37.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IBULHSGFIN, TATACHEM, SAIL, HDFCBANK,
AND ASHOKLEY.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GLENMARK 9795700 21.76 508.90 3.11
TORNTPOWER 2646000 12.36 325.80 -1.80
GODREJPROP 826800 11.78 915.50 1.46
GODREJCP 5284000 11.24 713.75 0.67
APOLLOHOSP 1256500 9.59 1828.45 3.21
CUMMINSIND 2536800 8.13 481.50 -1.30
TORNTPHARM 1025500 7.33 2876.25 1.19
PETRONET 11946000 7.13 228.20 -2.70
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MGL 1590600 -10.23 919.15 0.62
NTPC 44750700 -9.22 90.55 1.91
LICHSGFIN 8104000 -7.70 303.30 -1.14
AUROPHARMA 13625300 -7.44 828.10 1.99
MANAPPURAM 16884000 -7.19 161.20 0.22
INFY 40908000 -7.07 1002.15 -0.66
ACC 1977000 -6.86 1431.80 1.56
BALKRISIND 1542400 -6.72 1394.45 0.61
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.37 0.98
BANKNIFTY 0.68 0.94
RELIANCE 0.63 0.50
ICICIBANK 0.46 0.56
INFY 0.61 0.50
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
DRREDDY 39.59
CIPLA 44.09
LUPIN 47.14
DIVISLAB 42.40
CADILAHC 43.47
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 21
, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11504.95
FII Statistics for September 18, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
6014.68
4114.65
1900.03
128732
10211.61
(9.70)
INDEX
OPTIONS
142005.58
140883.25
1122.33
797094
62431.34
8.96
STOCK
FUTURES
24402.61
25851.80
(1449.19) 1208749
85487.17
(0.85)
STOCK
OPTIONS
9410.58
9455.53
(44.95) 112892
8232.82
(3.33)
Total 181833.45
180305.23
1528.22
2247467
166362.94
1.69
Turnover on September 18, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,91,951 33071.88 20.43
Index Options
1,48,09,204 10,11,981.08 -72.74
Stock Futures 12,40,515 98425.39 66.21
Stock Options
20,45,364 1,80,614.94 65.99
Total 1,85,87,034 13,24,093.29 -66.12
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 106.80
50.55 49.45 11550.55
Sell 11600 56.25
Buy 11500 106.80
82.05 117.95 11582.05
Sell 11700 24.75
Buy 11600 56.25
31.50 68.50 11631.50
Sell 11700 24.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 90.50
32.60 67.40 11467.40
Sell 11400 57.90
Buy 11500 90.50
53.20 146.80 11446.80
Sell 11300 37.30
Buy 11400 57.90
20.60 79.40 11379.40
Sell 11300 37.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 21
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Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
342
350
355
363
368
ASIANPAINT 2,000 2,014
2,029
2,044
2,059
AXISBANK
430
437
443
450
456
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,965 3,008
3,039
3,082
3,113
BAJFINANCE 3,394 3,435
3,469
3,509
3,544
BAJAJFINSV 5,739 5,814
5,937
6,011
6,135
BPCL
402
407
415
420
428
BHARTIARTL
467
481
489
503
512
INFRATEL
193
196
198
202
204
BRITANNIA 3,739 3,768
3,804
3,833
3,869
CIPLA
757
782
801
825
844
COALINDIA
122
123
124
125
126
DRREDDY 4,713 5,023
5,260
5,570
5,807
EICHERMOT 2,095 2,124
2,164
2,193
2,233
GAIL
89
91
92
93
95
GRASIM
715
730
739
754
763
HCLTECH
793
802
813
822
833
HDFCBANK 1,021 1,039
1,066
1,084
1,111
HDFC
577
581
588
592
599
HEROMOTOCO 1,683 1,703
1,729
1,750
1,775
HINDALCO 3,056 3,085
3,103
3,131
3,150
HINDUNILVR
174
177
179
182
185
ICICIBANK 2,068 2,083
2,105
2,121
2,143
IOC
359
365
370
375
380
INDUSINDBK
79
80
81
82
84
INFY
588
601
613
625
637
ITC
987
995
1,007
1,014
1,026
JSW STEEL
176
177
179
180
182
KOTAKBANK
279
284
289
293
298
LT 1,233 1,255
1,285
1,307
1,336
M&M
887
894
904
911
921
MARUTI
625
639
649
664
674
NESTLEIND 6,798 6,881
7,015
7,099
7,233
NTPC 15,762
15,925
16,087
16,250
16,412
ONGC
88
89
90
92
93
POWERGRID
72
73
74
75
76
RELIANCE
165
168
171
174
176
SHREECEM 2,258 2,282
2,301
2,325
2,343
SBIN 18,967
19,244
19,676
19,953
20,385
SUNPHARMA
186
189
193
197
201
TCS
504
514
524
534
544
TATAMOTORS 2,398 2,424
2,462
2,488
2,526
TATASTEEL
144
146
148
150
152
TECHM
386
391
398
403
410
TITAN
780
792
800
813
821
ULTRACEMCO 1,130 1,147
1,174
1,191
1,218
UPL 3,921 3,962
3,991
4,031
4,060
VEDANTA
525
531
535
542
546
WIPRO
309
313
316
320
323
ZEEL
215
217
222
225
230
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 21
, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com