Technical & Derivatives Report
May 21, 2018
Sensex (34848) / Nifty (10596)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
During the week gone by, the market continued with its recent
optimism during the initial part of the week. In fact, on Tuesday,
the Nifty soared beyond the 10900 mark after BJP started leading
the tally in Karnataka Assembly election. Everything looked
hunky-dory at that point, but as we all know, market always
surprises us the moment traders become so complacent. Clearly,
the ‘Sell on news’ factor played out in the second half and within
no time, index eroded all its gains to give an ominous close. We
were anticipating a possibility of this and hence, advocated
existing longs around 10900 irrespective of the outcome from the
event. The sell off continued throughout the remaining part of the
week to eventually conclude with a sharp cut of nearly two
percent from the previous weekly close.
Technically speaking, this is a classical example how certain
Fibonacci ratios prove their worth. This time, it was
78.6%
Fibonacci retracement (10900) of the pervious down move acted
as a sturdy wall on the event day. In fact, the price action on the
same day resulted into a formation of ‘Gravestone Doji’ pattern,
which is showing its negative implication now. In this course of
action, the index has broken and closed below its previous weeks’
low for the first time in last seven weeks. Thus, with reference to
our intra-week article, the short term top has now been formed
at 10929.20. The tide has once again turned lower and hence,
any bounce towards 10650 - 10700 is likely to get sold into.
Going ahead, we expect continuation of this corrective move at
least towards 10536 - 10440 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10536
Resistance 1 - 10650
Support 2 - 10440
Resistance 2 - 10700
Nifty Bank Outlook - (25876)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
If we analyze last week's action in Nifty Bank index, it was seen
that the index had formed a trend reversal pattern on the daily
chart in Tuesday's session. The index then reversed the
momentum seen during last month and it corrected to end the
week with a loss of over 2% over its previous week's close.
Considering this chart structure, we continue with our cautious
stance which have been advising post the formation of the
reversal pattern. Unless we see any positive signs, the index could
test its hourly '200 SMA' in near term which is placed around
25600. On pullback moves, 26120 and 26330 would be seen as
resistances.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 25810
Resistance 1 - 26120
Support 2 - 25600
Resistance 2 - 26330
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 21, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.55%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.32%
as market closed at 10596.40 levels.
The Nifty May future closed with a premium of 0.65
points against a premium of 13.50 points in last trading
session. The June series closed at a premium of 9.55
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 13.40 to 14.15. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.46
to 1.36 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are TV18BRDCST, CAPF, NCC, ICICIBANK and
BHEL.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
of Rs.
166 crores. At the same time, they sold
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
SRF
722500
45.52
1924.40
-14.14
significantly of Rs. 1434 crores in index futures with rise
VGUARD
3300000
28.50
224.65
-7.68
in open interest, suggesting short formation on Friday’s
trading session.
STAR
3576400
25.54
387.05
-23.45
In index options front, they were net sellers of Rs. 827
ESCORTS
5674900
10.59
876.40
-8.16
crores with rise in OI. In call options, we saw fresh
COLPAL
1661100
9.76
1222.20
3.74
built-up in 10600-10800 strikes; followed by unwinding
ARVIND
6136000
9.65
399.40
-5.29
in 10900 and 10950 call options. On the flip side, we
UBL
1575000
8.12
1133.85
1.09
saw massive unwinding in 10400 and 10600-10800 put
BAJAJ-AUTO
2321750
7.91
2787.50
-1.28
options. Maximum open interest concentration remains
intact in 11000 call and 10500 put options.
OI Losers
The benchmark index rallied above 10900 on the day of
Karnataka election result; but couldn’t sustain as we saw
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
decent profit booking thereafter which dragged index tad
GLENMARK
5836900
-23.37
500.60
-4.66
below 10600 mark on a closing basis. We saw long
ORIENTBANK
17640000
-23.19
75.40
-4.74
unwinding in both Nifty as well as BankNifty last week. In
BALKRISIND
1087200
-10.47
1173.85
-1.88
this fall, stronger hands added majority of short positions
INDIANB
3682000
-10.37
300.55
-0.99
in index and stock futures segment. In case of index
RNAVAL
35514000
-9.99
15.40
-9.38
options, they bought good amount of put options and
BAJFINANCE
5830000
-7.33
2149.65
3.86
exited their longs in index call options. Whereas,
REPCOHOME
753300
-6.90
576.95
-1.66
unwinding in put options hints scope of further
ICICIPRULI
5131100
-6.40
422.10
-1.55
correction. Hence, we would advise traders to remain
cautions and prefer trading in individual counters.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
STAR
135.74
NIFTY
1.36
0.89
SRF
80.72
BANKNIFTY
0.87
0.90
VGUARD
45.62
TATAMOTORS
0.42
0.45
ESCORTS
50.30
RELIANCE
0.34
0.51
CADILAHC
34.90
ICICIBANK
0.94
0.57
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 21, 2018
FII Statistics for May 18, 2018
Turnover on May 18, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1973.11
3407.42
(1434.31)
244160
20221.89
8.19
197559
17315.59
6.52
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
64921.87
65749.16
(827.29)
906925
74376.32
1.36
4405731
404511.79
-69.43
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
10735.02
10975.31
(240.29)
1249461
84484.69
0.65
STOCK
FUTURES
837883
55565.67
9.05
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
9708.87
9770.53
(61.66)
140809
9537.92
6.31
769179
54798.56
29.31
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
87338.86
89902.42
(2563.56)
2541355
188620.82
1.89
TOTAL
6210352
532191.61
-62.86
Nifty Spot = 10596.40
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10600
91.80
Buy
10600
97.60
43.60
56.40
10643.60
35.50
64.50
10564.50
Sell
10700
48.20
Sell
10500
62.10
Buy
10600
91.80
Buy
10600
97.60
70.00
130.00
10670.00
58.95
141.05
10541.05
Sell
10800
21.80
Sell
10400
38.65
Buy
10700
48.20
Buy
10500
62.10
26.40
73.60
10726.40
23.45
76.55
10476.55
Sell
10800
21.80
Sell
10400
38.65
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 21, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
377
383
390
396
403
ASIANPAINT
1,275
1,292
1,304
1,321
1,333
AXISBANK
522
527
534
540
546
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,660
2,724
2,819
2,883
2,979
BAJFINANCE
2,023
2,086
2,129
2,192
2,235
BAJAJFINSV
5,314
5,522
5,673
5,881
6,032
BPCL
377
382
387
392
397
BHARTIARTL
348
355
361
368
374
INFRATEL
311
313
318
321
325
CIPLA
514
523
540
549
566
COALINDIA
260
264
269
272
278
DRREDDY
1,956
1,969
1,980
1,994
2,005
EICHERMOT
29,258
29,672
30,206
30,620
31,154
GAIL
313
317
324
328
335
GRASIM
1,037
1,050
1,071
1,083
1,104
HCLTECH
868
879
899
910
930
HDFCBANK
1,992
2,002
2,013
2,023
2,035
HDFC
1,830
1,841
1,862
1,873
1,894
HEROMOTOCO
3,517
3,539
3,557
3,579
3,597
HINDALCO
228
230
233
234
237
HINDPETRO
303
307
315
320
327
HINDUNILVR
1,545
1,575
1,594
1,624
1,643
IBULHSGFIN
1,102
1,120
1,152
1,171
1,203
ICICIBANK
278
282
289
293
299
IOC
159
162
164
166
168
INDUSINDBK
1,888
1,909
1,927
1,948
1,966
INFY
1,167
1,175
1,181
1,189
1,194
ITC
272
277
281
287
291
KOTAKBANK
1,256
1,275
1,286
1,305
1,316
LT
1,281
1,298
1,329
1,347
1,378
LUPIN
725
734
751
761
777
M&M
814
825
839
851
865
MARUTI
8,348
8,430
8,577
8,659
8,806
NTPC
164
166
167
168
169
ONGC
180
183
187
190
194
POWERGRID
210
212
213
215
216
RELIANCE
918
926
940
948
961
SBIN
234
236
240
243
246
SUNPHARMA
446
456
472
482
498
TCS
3,433
3,467
3,493
3,527
3,552
TATAMOTORS
296
300
308
312
319
TATASTEEL
573
582
599
609
626
TECHM
661
677
687
703
713
TITAN
923
932
939
947
954
ULTRACEMCO
3,794
3,827
3,884
3,916
3,973
UPL
700
705
709
714
718
VEDANTA
264
267
273
276
282
WIPRO
263
266
271
274
280
YESBANK
340
343
346
349
352
ZEEL
557
562
567
572
577
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 21, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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