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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 21, 2020
Sensex (
41529
(1
2225
)
Over the weekend, some of the top heavyweight constituents
like, Reliance, HDFC Bank and TCS posted their quarterly
numbers. So the reaction to these developments was seen at the
opening as we saw pre-open session suggesting a bumper
opening at record highs for Nifty above the milestone of 12400.
For Bank Nifty also, it suggested a strong bump up of over a
percent; but all this ecstasy did not last too long. The markets
started giving up right from the word go and before anyone
could realise, we were significantly off the opening highs to enter
a negative territory. In fact, things worsened as the day
progressed and eventually, Nifty and Bank Nifty concluded the
session with severe cuts.
In our sense, the opening tick was clearly an overreaction from
the market participants and hence, things had to reach to
equilibrium. Now, the extended correction also is an overreaction
or not that we need to see in the forthcoming session. Nifty has
closed at its crucial juncture now as we can see a cluster of
multiple evidences such as 20-DEMA’ and ‘200-SMA’ on hourly
chart converging in the zone of 12220 12200. Hence, we need
to see how index behaves around it. If we have to anticipate one
direction, we expect Nifty to find support around it and give
some rebound towards 12270 12290 in the forthcoming
session. The similar view point goes with the banking index as
well. Hence, traders are advised not to get carried away with this
and refrain from creating short positions.
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (31081)
Bank Nifty started with a gap up opening with more than 300
points gains however from the word go it witnessed selling
pressure and within the first few minutes itself Bank Nifty erased
all the morning gains. As the day progressed the selling pressure
aggrandized and eventually the bank nifty ended near the low
point of the day with the loss of 1.61% at 31081.
In the last few sessions, the bank nifty index has been
underperforming and yesterday with the sharp sell-off in the
heavyweight counters; the Index witnessed further pain. Now the
bank index is approaching the sacrosanct support in the zone
30800-30900 which previously twice acted as strong support
and it now coincides with 89EMA. With the primary trend still
bullish there are high chances of bounce back from the said
levels and in such a case, immediate resistance is placed at
31585 and 31980 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30900 Resistance 1 – 31585
Support 2 – 30800 Resistance 2 – 31980
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
Yesterday
, along with key benchmark indices, the broader
market too has taken a toll but the overall correction was not
severe. But we are not at all surprised with this; because in our
previous articles, we had clearly stated Midcap index entering
an overbought territory. However having said that, we still
believe its merely a profit booking after a sharp run up and we
expect the declines to get bought into.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 12220 Resistance 1 12270
Support 2 – 12200 Resistance 2 12290
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 21, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
Views
Yesterday our markets witnessed a gap up opening of
around 80 points; however it gave away these gains in
the first few minutes itself. The profit booking
extended throughout the session as Nifty ended with
loss of a percent at 12225.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of only Rs. 6 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 134 crores with rise in open interest by 11.76
percent.
In F&O space, we witnessed a decent amount of short
formation in BankNifty futures yesterday as the open
interest increased by over 17 percent. At the same
time, 12400-12300 put writers covered some of their
positions as the market corrected and 12300-12400
call witnessed fresh writing. Looking at the above data,
it seems that in the index could consolidate in the near
term. The immediate supports as per the open interest
data are placed around 12200 and then at 12000 mark.
On the flipside, the resistance is seen in the range of
12300-12400. In this consolidation, traders are advised
to approach buy on dips strategy as the index
approached the support zone.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.14%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 17.22% as
market closed at 12224.55 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 38.55
points against a premium of 32.30 points in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
77.85 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 14.12 to 15.41.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.46 to 1.13.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, DISHTV, SHREECEM, SUNTV and
PAGEIND.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
POWERGRID 22556000 39.86 204.65 3.70
PFC 30497800 29.82 112.35 -7.94
IOC 54756000 27.48 117.50 -4.57
OIL 5948250 21.95 149.55 -5.99
FEDERALBNK 65163000 16.12 93.75 2.23
RBLBANK 19681500 13.63 328.15 -4.51
JUSTDIAL 2485000 12.63 579.90 -2.03
HAVELLS 7622000 8.17 625.30 -2.49
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MRF 21320 -8.06 68509.70 -1.47
GAIL 48022002 -6.29 127.80 0.75
TATASTEEL 24459000 -5.98 490.65 -0.96
APOLLOHOSP 1723000 -5.25 1629.50 0.56
BHARTIARTL 52686864 -4.62 508.70 2.46
CASTROLIND 6970000 -4.60 135.70 -1.63
MINDTREE 1617600 -4.58 892.75 1.05
LICHSGFIN 10271300 -4.14 463.35 -0.71
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.13 0.89
BANKNIFTY 0.64 0.89
RELIANCE 0.44 0.59
ICICIBANK 0.49 0.53
INFY 0.63 0.72
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
OIL 35.93
KOTAKBANK 28.87
IDEA 166.51
LUPIN 30.15
PFC 53.94
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 21, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
12
224
.
5
5
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
January
20
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4796.73 4662.28 134.45
179769 15322.95 11.76
INDEX
OPTIONS
261097.12 260825.79 271.33
797265 64946.59 10.70
STOCK
FUTURES
15253.15 15899.99 (646.84) 1548903 104301.04 0.35
STOCK
OPTIONS
8712.39 8952.79 (240.40) 92809 6407.07 4.18
Total 289859.39
290340.85
(481.46) 2618746
190977.65
4.18
Turnover on
January
20
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
322928 24253.24 40.03
INDEX
OPTIONS
15304685 1119544.37 60.25
STOCK
FUTURES
826194 57361.65 9.15
STOCK
OPTIONS
1115194 80348.77 16.31
TOTAL 1,75,69,001 1281508.03 53.00
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12200 132.40
56.40 43.60 12256.40
Sell 12300 76.00
Buy 12200 132.40
93.00 107.00 12293.00
Sell 12400 39.40
Buy 12300 76.00
36.60 63.40 12336.60
Sell 12400 39.40
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12200 68.95
28.20 71.80 12171.80
Sell 12100 40.75
Buy 12200 68.95
44.30 155.70 12155.70
Sell 12000 24.65
Buy 12100 40.75
16.10 83.90 12083.90
Sell 12000 24.65
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 21, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 372 376
383 387
393
ASIANPAINT 1,820 1,834
1,848 1,863 1,877
AXISBANK 712 719
733 741
754
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,049 3,076
3,111 3,138 3,172
BAJFINANCE 4,049 4,101
4,177 4,229 4,305
BAJAJFINSV 9,415 9,494
9,629 9,708 9,843
BPCL 443 450
458 465
474
BHARTIARTL 487 498
505 516
524
INFRATEL 213 217
223 227
232
BRITANNIA 3,081 3,096
3,119 3,134 3,158
CIPLA 473 477
480 483
486
COALINDIA 195 198
204 207
213
DRREDDY 3,009 3,034
3,057 3,082 3,105
EICHERMOT 20,762 21,063
21,307 21,608 21,852
GAIL 123 125
127 130
132
GRASIM 756 764
771 779
786
HCLTECH 563 576
597 610
631
HDFCBANK 1,218 1,237
1,271 1,289 1,323
HDFC 2,414 2,434
2,460 2,480 2,507
HEROMOTOCO
2,379
2,397
2,428
2,447
2,478
HINDALCO 204 206
208 210
212
HINDUNILVR 2,037 2,050
2,063 2,076 2,089
ICICIBANK 524 529
537 542
550
IOC 111 114
117 120
123
INDUSINDBK 1,296 1,314
1,341 1,359 1,386
INFY 757 763
769 774
780
ITC 239 240
242 243
245
JSW STEEL 265 268
272 275
278
KOTAKBANK 1,548 1,583
1,646 1,681 1,744
LT 1,299 1,304
1,312 1,318 1,325
M&M 559 563
569 573
578
MARUTI 7,358 7,404
7,467 7,512 7,575
NESTLEIND 15,126 15,272
15,376 15,521 15,625
NTPC 115 117
119 121
123
ONGC 116 120
123 126
130
POWERGRID 199 202
206 209
214
RELIANCE 1,473 1,503
1,556 1,585 1,639
SBIN 308 311
316 319
324
SUNPHARMA 441 445
451 455
461
TCS 2,104 2,137
2,190 2,223 2,276
TATAMOTORS 190 192
197 200
204
TATASTEEL 483 487
493 497
504
TECHM 769 773
779 784
790
TITAN 1,171 1,180
1,187 1,196 1,203
ULTRACEMCO 4,419 4,443
4,476 4,501 4,534
UPL 575 580
585 590
596
VEDANTA 154 155
158 159
161
WIPRO 245 247
249 250
252
YESBANK 37 38
39 40 41
ZEEL 259 265
275 281
290
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 21, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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