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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 20, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
28903
)
Wednesday's tail end surge in banking conglomerates was
followed by a gap down opening yesterday, citing sluggish cues
from the global bourses. In the initial hour, it made a valiant
attempt to recover a bit but couldn't even fill the gap and in fact
post the mid session, banking (rather the entire market) just took
a nosedive to eventually conclude the weekly expiry below
29000 by shedding nearly three percent.
Yesterday's gap down opening and a follow through sell off in
the latter half might have caught a lot of traders on the wrong
foot. But with reference to yesterday's commentary, we had
clearly indicated how BANKNIFTY has reached a cluster of
resistance and since prices were extremely overstretched, we
advocated taking money off the table. Now the coming session
would be quite crucial for the banking index because it will
confirm a weekly close. If this optimism has to be regained,
today's close should come above 29200 - 29400. But if this
doesn't happen (which is possible seeing yesterday's move), the
weekly chart will depict a bearish pattern. This development will
then lead to some pause to the recent optimism. Hence, traders
are advised to take a note of these scenarios.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
43600)
/ Nifty
(
12772
)
Nifty started the day with a gap down following the negative global
cues. However, the index recovered the losses post opening and
even surpassed Wednesday’s high till noon. But then, the index
again witnessed a gradual sell off and it breached the morning lows
to end the day at the lowest point with a loss of more than 160
points.
Yesterday, finally some brakes were applied to the recent
momentum as the global markets witnessed some profit booking.
Nifty recovered post a gap down opening but the recent
outperforming banking index was trading with a negative bias. Post
noon, we then witnessed a profit booking and both Nifty and the
Bank Nifty corrected for the rest of the session to apply brakes on
the recent euphoric move. Yesterday’s move in the indices
(especially Bank Nifty which corrected from its important resistance
zone) just seems to be a profit booking after the recent relentless
upmove. Considering last three day’s price action, 13000 now
becomes the sturdy wall for Nifty to surpass. When we see such
profit booking, the index usually retraces some of the previous
upmove before resuming its primary trend. Hence, we could see a
retracement of the recent move from 11535 to 12963 of which the
minimum 23.6 percent retracement level is placed around 12630. If
this pans out to be just a time-wise correction, then the index could
see some consolidation around the mentioned retracement support
before resuming its uptrend
.
From a day trading or short term trading perspective, such
corrections provide opportunities on both the sides of the trade
and thus, traders should look out for such trading opportunities
and have a proper exit strategy as well. However, we are still
witnessing some good price volume action in the broader markets
and hence, any declines should provide a good entry points for
positional traders to accumulate shares on dips.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 12700 Resistance 1 – 12900
Support 2 – 12630 Resistance2 – 12963
As far as levels are concerned, 29286 - 29600 will now be seen
as immediate resistances; whereas on the lower side, the
weakness will get augmented below 28700. Traders are advised
to stay light and should ideally avoid taking aggressive bets for
a while. In case the above mentioned bearish scenario confirms,
we would like to highlight that this should only be interpreted
as a profit booking after a strong rally and the larger degree
uptrend still remains intact.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28700 Resistance 1 – 29286
Support 2 – 28500 Resistance 2 – 29600
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Weekly Chart
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 20, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
11000
11200
11400
11600
11800
12000
12200
12400
12600
12800
13000
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
10/30 11/3 11/5 11/9 11/11 11/13
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post Wednesday’s strong close, we began the weekly
expiry day on a weak note. Interestingly, in the first
hour of trade Nifty recovered all the losses and soon
rallied above 12950 mark. But, this upmove was short
lived as we witnessed sharp profit booking from the
higher levels to drag index below 12750. Eventually,
the Nifty concluded the weekly expiry day with the cut
of 166 points.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune
of Rs. 1180 crores. In index future segment, they sold
worth Rs. 737 crores with some rise in open interest,
suggesting short formation.
In the November series, both the indices gave a
spectacular move with addition of good amount of
longs. However, in the previous week’s rally longs
were missing in the banking index. Stronger hands
continued their buying streak in equities and they are
net buyers of Rs. 41,210 crores.
. In options front,
decent writing was seen in 12900 and 13000 call
options along with decent build-up in 12500-12700
put options.
Now, in yesterday’s fall we did see some
short formation but quantum wasn’t significant. As far
as levels are concerned, 12900-13000 may now act as
a hurdle; whereas, support is placed around
12400-12500 levels
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.32%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.90%
as market closed at 12771.70 levels.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
21.80 point against a premium of 19.00 point in last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 39.90 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 19.20 to 19.57.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.67 to 1.29.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are NATIONALUM, TORNTPHARMA, VEDL and
RECLTD.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LICHSGFIN 14198000 19.45 328.80 0.26
TATACHEM 5658000 16.76 353.05 7.84
TORNTPOWER 3348000 12.61 304.70 -0.13
NATIONALUM 56933000 10.42 36.60 1.94
DLF 34692900 9.42 184.90 -3.22
TECHM 10742400 8.97 822.90 -1.52
ONGC 51736300 6.94 72.15 0.14
PVR 1855920 6.87 1287.10 -1.02
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MGL 1308000 -29.90 921.30 1.28
BATAINDIA 1255650 -14.65 1499.45 4.10
BEL 31790800 -13.54 103.10 6.40
RBLBANK 23349400 -11.34 212.00 -4.45
INDUSINDBK 19100400 -9.77 818.00 -1.43
BANKBARODA 63191900 -9.27 47.95 -3.52
MOTHERSUMI 20300000 -9.12 136.75 -0.44
PNB 76818000 -8.86 30.00 -2.59
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.29 1.10
BANKNIFTY 0.78 0.86
RELIANCE 0.46 0.44
ICICIBANK 0.79 0.65
INFY 0.36 0.34
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
TATACHEM 42.97
BEL 56.25
BATAINDIA 44.73
SBIN 53.50
FEDERALBNK 64.41
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 20, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
12771.70
FII Statistics for November 19, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
3370.68 2923.74 446.94
159908 14858.27 0.81
INDEX
OPTIONS
297807.52 295672.46 2135.06
996036 91905.61 10.49
STOCK
FUTURES
12634.13 12929.37 (295.24) 1319557 97988.86 0.57
STOCK
OPTIONS
9708.30 9730.59 (22.29) 98784 7451.34 2.10
Total 323520.63
321256.16
2264.47
2574285
212204.08
4.27
Turnover on November 19, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,41,769 44148.06 25.87
Index Options
7,82,05,505
62,79,018.59
163.10
Stock Futures 10,10,581
77532.09 18.19
Stock Options
20,47,878
1,65,548.47 11.89
Total 8,18,05,733
65,66,247.21
149.18
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12800 108.20
44.20 55.80 12844.20
Sell 12900 64.00
Buy 12800 108.20
71.75 128.25 12871.75
Sell 13000 36.45
Buy 12900 64.00
27.55 72.45 12927.55
Sell 13000 36.45
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12800 113.20
39.50 60.50 12760.50
Sell 12700 73.70
Buy 12800 113.20
67.15 132.85 12732.85
Sell 12600 46.05
Buy 12700 73.70
27.65 72.35 12672.35
Sell 12600 46.05
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
12200 12300 12400 12500 12600 12700 12800 12900 13000 13100 13200 13300 13400 13500
Call Put
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November 20, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
372
377
385
390
398
ASIANPAINT 2,133 2,147
2,171
2,186
2,209
AXISBANK
594
603
618
627
642
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,987 3,011
3,034
3,057
3,080
BAJFINANCE 4,339 4,438
4,611
4,710
4,884
BAJAJFINSV 7,475 7,649
7,924
8,099
8,374
BPCL
374
379
387
392
401
BHARTIARTL
458
463
472
478
487
BRITANNIA 3,444 3,478
3,513
3,547
3,582
CIPLA
730
736
744
750
758
COALINDIA
119
121
122
124
126
DIVISLAB 3,354 3,395
3,447
3,487
3,539
DRREDDY 4,571 4,639
4,726
4,794
4,880
EICHERMOT 2,463 2,507
2,583
2,627
2,702
GAIL
91
92
95
96
98
GRASIM
814
825
844
855
873
HCLTECH
792
798
809
816
827
HDFCBANK 1,349 1,362
1,381
1,393
1,412
HDFCLIFE
626
636
653
664
681
HDFC 2,288 2,306
2,329
2,347
2,370
HEROMOTOCO 2,872 2,930
3,033
3,092
3,195
HINDALCO
203
209
218
223
232
HINDUNILVR 2,098 2,114
2,131
2,147
2,164
ICICIBANK
465
472
483
489
500
IOC
83
84
85
86
87
INDUSINDBK
781
800
823
841
864
INFY 1,081 1,089
1,102
1,110
1,123
ITC
178
183
187
192
197
JSW STEEL
318
325
336
342
353
KOTAKBANK 1,790 1,808
1,834
1,853
1,879
LT 1,070 1,102
1,140
1,172
1,209
M&M
672
688
708
724
744
MARUTI 6,788 6,876
7,003
7,090
7,218
NESTLEIND 16,559
16,747
16,973
17,161
17,387
NTPC
86
88
90
92
94
ONGC
70
71
73
74
75
POWERGRID
170
180
188
199
207
RELIANCE 1,942 1,957
1,984
2,000
2,026
SBILIFE
824
836
849
860
874
SHREECEM 23,034
23,348
23,817
24,131
24,601
SBIN
231
235
244
248
256
SUNPHARMA
498
503
510
514
521
TCS 2,603 2,620
2,648
2,665
2,693
TATAMOTORS
160
164
170
174
180
TATASTEEL
497
511
523
536
549
TECHM
802
812
831
841
860
TITAN 1,227 1,260
1,303
1,335
1,378
ULTRACEMCO 4,665 4,721
4,818
4,874
4,971
UPL
408
412
419
423
430
WIPRO
337
340
345
348
352
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 20, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: [email protected]lbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]g.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com