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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 20, 2019
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Sensex (
36094
(1
0705
)
In line with mixed global cues our markets started on a flat note,
however, Index immediately started witnessing selling pressure
and within the first few minutes itself broke previous two session’s
support of 10800. Subsequently, the undertone remained weak
as Index continued to slide lower throughout the session and
eventually ended with deep cuts of 1.25% tad above 10700
levels.
In the last four sessions of this week, Nifty has already erased
around 400 points and has now reached the lower boundary of
the last six weeks trading range. During this week we have
witnessed Index breaking crucial supports with ease and the
momentum is strongly gripped by bears. Having said that one
needs to be cautious on their aggressive shorts position with Index
approaching last month’s swing low at 10637 followed by double
bottom formed in January - February at 10585 levels. On the flip
side, every bounce are getting sold into and with the continuous
selloff, the resistance levels are getting lower; the immediate
resistance is now placed around 10790 followed by 10885.
Quite surprising, individual stocks from the midcap basket are
continuously outperforming in this falling markets and hence
traders are repeatedly advised to focus on such propositions with
proper exit setup.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10637 Resistance 1 – 10790
Support 2 – 10585 Resistance 2 – 10885
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
26758
)
The Nifty bank index opened on a flat note yesterday. However,
with open high same, the index started correcting right from word
go which continued throughout the session to end with a loss of
over 400 points. In the last three sessions, the index has corrected
by more than 1000 points which indicates a complete control by
the bears. Now, the index is approaching the swing low support
range of 26640-26560. It would be crucial to watch how the
index behaves here as we have seen a pullback move from this
support a couple of times in last one month. As of now, traders
are still advised to stay light on positions and focus on stock
specific moves. On the higher side, the immediate resistance for
the index is now seen around 27100-27175.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 26640 Resistance 1 – 27100
Support 2 – 26560 Resistance 2 – 27175
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
We had a flat start for the day yesterday and we
witnessed follow-up selling to drag index below
10800 mark. As the day progressed, selling
aggrevated to extend the correction below 10700
mark. Finally, we concluded the session with another
cut of 1.25%
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 892 cr. In index futures, they bought of worth
Rs. 1700 cr with decent amount of fall in open interest,
indicating unwinding of long posistions in last
sessions.
Recently, we witnessed decent selling along with
addition of fresh shorts. FIIs continued their selling in
equities and have been forming mixed positions in
index futures. The kind of selling witnessed has resulted
highest open interest concentration shifting lower from
10800 to 10600 now; whereas for call options remains
intact in 11000 strike. At current juncture, around
10600 is an immediate support area. However, we
haven’t see any positive development as far as data is
concerned; hence would advise traders to stay light for
the time being.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.85%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 2.51% as
market closed at 10704.80 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
6.50 points against a premium of 14.80 points in last
trading session. The October series closed at a premium
of 44.95 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 15.32 to 15.55.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.02 to 0.83.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are MARUTI, BOSCHLTD, CONCOR,
APOLLOHOSP and OIL.
OI
Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
YESBANK 163512800 12.52 54.10 -15.92
EQUITAS 15208000 11.04 94.00 -5.85
PEL 5202856 10.49 1764.15 -3.64
ZEEL 19630000 9.82 308.85 -8.40
CANBK 13394000 9.50 189.85 -3.13
ADANIPOWER 101060000 9.37 61.90 -3.95
ICICIBANK 91614875 8.71 386.60 -3.63
BANKINDIA 30942000 6.84 63.40 -2.92
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ARVIND 3672000 -22.43 53.20 -5.25
OFSS 114600 -8.83 2941.75 1.00
MCX 1348200 -8.50 908.95 -1.68
RELINFRA 8912000 -7.24 36.20 -3.60
NIITTECH 954750 -6.47 1369.30 4.57
RAYMOND 1212800 -6.19 559.45 -0.86
BSOFT 3202800 -5.85 66.75 -0.82
MFSL 2727600 -5.80 399.35 -1.86
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.83 0.75
BANKNIFTY 0.52 0.61
RELIANCE 0.37 0.76
ICICIBANK 0.38 0.47
INFY 0.98 0.84
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
NIITTECH 60.66
AMARAJABAT 38.12
ZEEL 61.43
IGL 35.18
PETRONET 32.36
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September 20, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
10
704
.80
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
September
19
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4417.21
6117.33
(1700.12) 246875
18716.52
(2.76)
INDEX
OPTIONS
367450.31
364602.65
2847.66
753813
56818.70
(13.38)
STOCK
FUTURES
11696.75
12104.51
(407.76) 1577676
90553.76
1.53
STOCK
OPTIONS
6193.82
6232.45
(38.63) 78876
4167.82
3.18
Total 389758.09
389056.94
701.15
2657240
170256.80
(3.53)
Turnover
on
September
19
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
388847 25794.24 4.45
INDEX
OPTIONS
40556198 2456562.31 86.71
STOCK
FUTURES
876269 44691.93 1.47
STOCK
OPTIONS
945382 49888.43 1.27
TOTAL 4,27,66,696
2576936.91 79.74
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10700 96.60
44.40 55.60 10744.40
Sell 10800 52.20
Buy 10700 96.60
71.80 128.20 10771.80
Sell 10900 24.80
Buy 10800 52.20
27.40 72.60 10827.40
Sell 10900 24.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10700 84.15
37.10 62.90 10662.90
Sell 10600 47.05
Buy 10700 84.15
59.40 140.60 10640.60
Sell 10500 24.75
Buy 10600 47.05
22.30 77.70 10577.70
Sell 10500 24.75
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 353 358
362 366 371
ASIANPAINT 1,536 1,545
1,554 1,563 1,573
AXISBANK 623 631
640 648 658
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,691 2,715
2,745 2,769 2,800
BAJFINANCE 3,290 3,326
3,376 3,412 3,462
BAJAJFINSV 7,078 7,133
7,191 7,247 7,305
BPCL 370 375
381 386 392
BHARTIARTL 330 334
338 342 346
INFRATEL 243 246
250 253 257
BRITANNIA 2,558 2,590
2,622 2,653 2,685
CIPLA 443 447
455 459 467
COALINDIA 187 190
192 195 197
DRREDDY 2,690 2,711
2,730 2,751 2,769
EICHERMOT 15,304 15,528
15,854 16,078 16,404
GAIL 128 131
133 136 138
GRASIM 687 693
702 709 717
HCLTECH 1,021 1,035
1,047 1,061 1,072
HDFCBANK 1,074 1,088
1,097 1,111 1,120
HDFC 1,942 1,958
1,980 1,997 2,019
HEROMOTOCO 2,465 2,499
2,547 2,580 2,628
HINDALCO 190 193
196 199 202
HINDUNILVR 1,786 1,799
1,822 1,835 1,857
IBULHSGFIN 355 375
399 419 442
ICICIBANK 378 382
389 393 400
IOC 123 125
127 128 130
INDUSINDBK 1,243 1,263
1,298 1,318 1,353
INFY 809 815
821 827 833
ITC 234 235
238 239 241
JSW STEEL 212 216
219 222 225
KOTAKBANK 1,434 1,443
1,454 1,463 1,474
LT 1,284 1,292
1,306 1,315 1,329
M&M 504 512
521 528 537
MARUTI 5,797 5,884
6,030 6,117 6,262
NTPC 119 120
122 123 124
ONGC 121 123
125 126 129
POWERGRID 197 199
201 203 205
RELIANCE 1,150 1,165
1,187 1,202 1,224
SBIN 269 271
276 278 283
SUNPHARMA 402 407
413 417 423
TCS 2,065 2,083
2,110 2,128 2,154
TATAMOTORS 119 122
124 126 128
TATASTEEL 331 338
347 354 363
TECHM 691 697
706 713 722
TITAN 1,137 1,145
1,156 1,164 1,176
ULTRACEMCO 3,787 3,827
3,878 3,917 3,968
UPL 542 552
559 569 576
VEDANTA 138 142
146 150 154
WIPRO 237 239
243 245 248
YESBANK 46 50
57 62 69
ZEEL 288 298
317 327 346
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September 20, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]elbroking.com
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