Technical & Derivatives Report
February 20, 2018
Sensex (33775) / Nifty (10378)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Trading for the week began with mildly bullish sentiments owing
to muted cues from the Asian peers. However, all of a sudden we
saw index giving up all to immediate selling and as a result, the
early morning lead got disappeared in first five minutes of trade.
The selling pressure intensified post the midsession to eventually
drag the Nifty towards the 10300 mark. This psychological
junction provided some support for the market as we witnessed a
reasonable bounce back in the penultimate hour to conclude with
a cut of 0.71%.
With reference to earlier articles, the index is behaving in-line with
expectations and the daily chart suggests further weakness in
days to come. Due to yesterday’s correction, the ‘Inverted
Pennant’ has now been confirmed on a closing basis along with a
placement below daily ’89 EMA’ for the first time in recent
months. Hence, we may continue to expect Nifty retesting 10200
- 10033 in near future. Meanwhile, any bounce back towards
10456 - 10550 is likely to get sold into. Thus, short term traders
should ideally avoid taking positions in the opposite direction as
we generally see sharper corrective moves than rallies in a falling
market. It’s a prudent strategy to stay light and remain stock
specific for a time being.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10275
Resistance 1 - 10456
Support 2 - 10200
Resistance 2 - 10500
Nifty Bank Outlook - (25059)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The Nifty Bank index continued the weakness in yesterday's
session and ended the day with a loss of 0.42 percent over its
previous session's close. While the momentum in the private
sector banks was muted, the PSU Banking names continued with
the sell-off for most part of the day. Although, a recovery in the
last hour of the trade led to the index closing off the day's low.
Yesterday's candle on the Nifty PSU Bank index daily chart
resembles a 'Hammer' candlestick pattern. Hence, traders with
short positions in the PSU Banking names should keep a tab on
yesterday's high in the PSU Bank index which is placed at
3181.50 and revise their stop losses accordingly. As far as the
Nifty Bank index is concerned, the '200 SMA' seem to have
gradually moved higher with the passage of time and
correspondingly, the range of 24825-24640 is now a support
zone for the index. On the flipside, the resistances for the index
are seen around 25350 and 25610.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 24825
Resistance 1 - 25350
Support 2 - 24640
Resistance 2 - 25610
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 20, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.46%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 4.98%
as market closed at 10378.40 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 0.15
points against a premium of 1.05 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 37.90
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 16.37 to 16.67. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has remains unchanged
at 1.07 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are ORIENTBANK, JISLJALEQS, BHARATFORG,
JUSTDIAL and INFIBEAM.
Views
FIIs continued selling in cash market segment to the tune
OI Gainers
of Rs. 896 crores. While, they were net sellers in index
OI
PRICE
futures of Rs. 1153 crores with rise in open interest,
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
indicating formation of short positions in last trading
MFSL
4127000
35.49
498.40
-0.54
session.
AMBUJACEM
15945000
26.42
257.85
0.04
In index options front, they were net sellers of Rs. 2160
INDIANB
4658000
15.87
316.05
-6.45
crores with marginal fall in open interest. In Nifty call
SUNTV
4682000
13.94
890.45
-3.91
options, fresh build up was seen in 10300-10400 strikes;
UNIONBANK
34608000
13.78
109.85
-7.46
whereas in put options build up was seen in 10300 and
ACC
2010800
13.09
1633.50
-1.08
10100 strikes, along with unwinding in 10400-10700
SRTRANSFIN
2824200
11.43
1291.15
-2.27
strikes. At present, maximum open interest concentration
ALBK
24720000
10.36
51.20
-6.82
stands at 10600 call and 10000 put options.
In yesterday’s session, FII’s created fresh short positions
in the index fut. segment. Also, they unwounded their
OI Losers
long positions in the call options and bought some put
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
options. They continue to be net short in the index fut. as
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
their ‘Long Short Ratio’ is at 44%. The data continues to
FORTIS
55646500
-10.34
146.10
5.83
be negative and hence, traders should avoid any bottom
RAMCOCEM
835200
-9.61
715.05
-0.77
fishing and rather trade with a stock specific approach.
UBL
929600
-9.29
1054.75
4.23
MINDTREE
1617600
-8.61
690.30
-3.27
CUMMINSIND
579000
-8.01
846.00
-0.27
CHOLAFIN
523000
-7.76
1351.35
-0.15
NESTLEIND
211600
-7.64
7497.55
-1.19
ARVIND
6944000
-7.49
383.50
-0.62
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.07
0.76
UNIONBANK
57.12
BANKNIFTY
0.90
0.72
TATASTEEL
45.11
PNB
0.63
0.74
NIITTECH
63.80
SBIN
0.42
0.58
INDIANB
57.72
RELIANCE
0.47
0.51
ALBK
64.13
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 20, 2018
FII Statistics for February 19, 2018
Turnover on February 19, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
3742.16
4895.17
(1153.00)
271360
21841.62
1.34
427836
35987.34
35.47
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
104603.86
106764.23
(2160.37)
1064731
85333.38
(0.55)
8133481
694206.66
28.53
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
20424.22
20015.99
408.24
1093487
76764.75
(0.13)
STOCK
FUTURES
1239481
85884.33
26.09
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
10088.90
10081.38
7.52
115280
8297.96
(0.90)
718348
52293.93
-0.34
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
138859.15
141756.77
(2897.62)
2544858
192237.71
(0.19)
TOTAL
10519146
868372.26
26.35
Nifty Spot = 10378.40
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10400
49.55
Buy
10400
73.40
29.00
71.00
10429.00
37.70
62.30
10362.30
Sell
10500
20.55
Sell
10300
35.70
Buy
10400
49.55
Buy
10400
73.40
42.50
157.50
10442.50
55.10
144.90
10344.90
Sell
10600
7.05
Sell
10200
18.30
Buy
10500
20.55
Buy
10300
35.70
13.50
86.50
10513.50
17.40
82.60
10282.60
Sell
10600
7.05
Sell
10200
18.30
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 20, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
378
386
397
405
416
AMBUJACEM
252
255
258
261
264
ASIANPAINT
1,092
1,106
1,126
1,140
1,160
AUROPHARMA
558
570
584
596
609
AXISBANK
520
530
538
548
555
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,945
2,988
3,053
3,095
3,160
BAJFINANCE
1,596
1,619
1,647
1,671
1,699
BPCL
445
451
460
466
474
BHARTIARTL
396
405
413
422
429
INFRATEL
321
326
329
334
338
BOSCHLTD
19,192
19,310
19,471
19,589
19,750
CIPLA
585
592
602
610
620
COALINDIA
298
302
305
308
311
DRREDDY
2,035
2,093
2,164
2,222
2,293
EICHERMOT
26,252
26,671
27,115
27,534
27,978
GAIL
454
459
466
471
479
HCLTECH
878
896
918
936
958
HDFCBANK
1,846
1,862
1,875
1,891
1,904
HDFC
1,786
1,800
1,815
1,829
1,844
HEROMOTOCO
3,398
3,432
3,476
3,509
3,553
HINDALCO
239
243
247
251
255
HINDPETRO
368
374
381
387
395
HINDUNILVR
1,311
1,323
1,341
1,354
1,371
IBULHSGFIN
1,198
1,224
1,253
1,280
1,309
ICICIBANK
307
313
322
328
336
IOC
361
366
371
375
381
INDUSINDBK
1,593
1,612
1,635
1,654
1,677
INFY
1,114
1,123
1,129
1,138
1,145
ITC
260
262
265
267
270
KOTAKBANK
1,041
1,049
1,054
1,061
1,066
LT
1,261
1,278
1,304
1,322
1,348
LUPIN
791
803
819
831
847
M&M
700
712
729
741
757
MARUTI
8,587
8,656
8,761
8,830
8,935
NTPC
160
162
163
164
165
ONGC
179
182
185
188
190
POWERGRID
192
193
195
196
198
RELIANCE
906
916
924
935
943
SBIN
250
259
266
275
281
SUNPHARMA
540
551
564
575
588
TCS
2,866
2,895
2,924
2,953
2,982
TATAMOTORS
357
363
369
375
381
TATASTEEL
606
627
660
682
715
TECHM
550
561
575
586
600
ULTRACEMCO
3,999
4,058
4,136
4,195
4,274
UPL
684
693
701
710
719
VEDANTA
309
315
320
325
330
WIPRO
286
288
291
292
295
YESBANK
304
308
312
316
319
ZEEL
546
557
564
575
582
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 20, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: deriva[email protected]
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