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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 19, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (17573)
The Banking and the NBFC space witnessed sharp sell-off
in yesterday's session which spooked the overall sentiments in the
broader markets. Bank Nifty corrected by more than 6 percent to
end the day tad above 17500.
Although yesterday's price decline looks catastrophic, the index
has ended in the vicinity of a support range. There is a formation
of a Bullish harmonic pattern called 'Shark' pattern whose PRZ
(Potential Reversal Zone) is in the range of 17600-17250. Usually,
such patterns lead to pullback move to retrace the last leg of the
fall and hence, there is higher probability of a pullback move
towards 18500 followed by 19200. The pattern negates if Bank
Nifty breaches 17140 mark. Hence, traders are advised to avoid
forming short positions and rather focus on stock specific moves
where there could be some pullback moves.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17500 Resistance 1 – 18500
Support 2 – 17140 Resistance 2 – 19200
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (30029) / Nifty (8823)
We had a positive start for the week, citing to cheerful mood in
Asian markets and a good bump up in Dow Futures early in the
morning. However, it was merely a formality as we saw markets
taking a complete nosedive in initial trades. Within a blink of an
eye, we not only broke the sheet anchor of 9000 but also hasten
towards the 8800 mark. After seeing such a knock, markets
slipped into a consolidation mode throughout the remaining part
to eventually conclude with over three percent cut.
Yesterday’s correction was clearly a surprise for most of the
market participants, including us. Especially the global peers that
stood firm throughout and we didn’t even rebound once looking
at them, which was quite unusual. For us also, although after
breaking rock solid support of 9000, some sort of long liquidation
was expected but the initial move was so swift that we got
deceived by a contradictory pattern on charts. Hence, going
forward we need to see whether we get any follow through selling
and in the process, the said pattern (Bullish Wolfe wave) gets
negated or not.
For the coming session, 8800-8750 would now be seen as crucial
support and any decisive move below this would certainly negate
the hopes of any recovery, atleast for a while. On the flipside,
8920 followed by 9000 remains to be an immediate hurdle now.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The global markets are trading with a positive bias and we are
likely to see a gap up opening. It would be crucial to see how
markets react around the 9000 levels and if we have to regain
any strength, we need to reclaim 9000 convincingly.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 8800 Resistance 1 – 8920
Support 2 – 8750 Resistance 2 – 9000
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 19, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9600
9800
10000
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
4/28 4/30 5/5 5/7 5/11 5/13 5/15
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
The week started on a positive note however Nifty
immediately witnessed a nose-dive and remained
underpressure for the most part of the session to end
with a loss of 3.43% at 8823.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 2513 crores. In index futures, they sold worth
803 crores with a increase in open interest, indicating
shorts created in yesterday’s session.
In yesterday's session, Nifty as well as Bank Nifty
witnessed rise in open interest along with decline in
price indicating formation of short positions. For the
third straight session, FII's sold equities worth more
than 2000 crores in cash which has led to a sharp
decline in our market. In index futures too, they formed
fresh short positions which has dragged their Long
Short Ratio to 28.46 percent. In options segment, 9300-
9000 put options saw unwinding of positions whereas
fresh addition was seen in 9000-9300 call options. As
per the options data, 8800 is the immediate support for
the index and Nifty has ended tad above it yesterday.
While the overall data hints a bearish scenario, the
global markets have been trading with a positive bias.
In case we see a pullback move, then it would be crucial
to see how the stronger hands reacts. As of now, traders
are advised to focus on stock specific moves and trade
as per the intraday momentum.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.85%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 11.57%
as market closed at 8823.25 levels.
The Nifty May future closed with a premium of 2.6 point
against a premium of 0.25 point in last trading session.
The June series closed at a premium of 3.6 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 38.01 to 40.9
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.11 to 0.95.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are, IDEA, YESBANK, NMDC, HINDUNILVR and
KOTAKBANK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOTYRE 9958000 49.61 91.65 0.27
EQUITAS 9982800 29.16 44.25 -15.41
UJJIVAN 4526800 20.20 153.60 -9.78
CHOLAFIN 7480000 13.85 125.00 -16.07
SAIL 52877500 12.03 27.45 -9.12
RAMCOCEM 518400 11.34 537.35 -7.02
TVSMOTOR 4725000 10.38 305.80 -10.28
TATACHEM 1842300 10.35 276.35 -6.44
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GODREJPROP 235300 -20.26 598.40 -4.52
ESCORTS 2231900 -19.10 810.50 -1.75
CUMMINSIND 1646100 -12.45 317.45 -6.71
NCC 19350000 -8.32 22.10 -7.53
ZEEL 25706600 -8.05 149.50 -9.27
BAJAJFINSV 620750 -7.21 4465.35 -5.66
VOLTAS 3693000 -6.48 441.55 -4.48
JINDALSTEL 14435000 -6.39 88.05 -7.17
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.95 0.83
BANKNIFTY 0.48 0.86
RELIANCE 0.55 0.42
ICICIBANK 0.31 0.52
INFY 0.48 0.43
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
M&MFIN 146.83
SIEMENS 65.05
PVR 118.83
LICHSGFIN 123.28
INDIGO 90.69
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 19, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
8823.25
FII Statistics for May 18, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6996.99
7800.12
(803.13) 103182
5609.38
16.86
INDEX
OPTIONS
151019.34
151449.04
(429.70) 562617
33679.86
11.09
STOCK
FUTURES
16412.89
16934.43
(521.54) 1555928
72550.46
1.28
STOCK
OPTIONS
4925.29
5109.05
(183.76) 66683
3282.93
1.51
Total 179354.51
181292.64
(1938.13) 2288410
115122.63
4.18
Turnover on May 18, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,58,544 36844.13 39.96
Index Options 1,52,80,913
7,59,483.51 69.09
Stock Futures 10,84,420 51867.04 22.63
Stock Options 10,65,540 55666.16 26.20
Total 1,81,89,417
9,03,860.84 60.86
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8800 241.65
47.40 52.60 8847.40
Sell 8900 194.25
Buy 8800 241.65
89.70 110.30 8889.70
Sell 9000 151.95
Buy 8900 194.25
42.30 57.70 8942.30
Sell 9000 151.95
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8800 213.45
43.95 56.05 8756.05
Sell 8700 169.50
Buy 8800 213.45
80.45 119.55 8719.55
Sell 8600 133.00
Buy 8700 169.50
36.50 63.50 8663.50
Sell 8600 133.00
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 19, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
281
287
297
303
313
ASIANPAINT 1,459 1,480
1,519
1,540
1,580
AXISBANK
330
344
367
381
403
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,338 2,408
2,531
2,600
2,723
BAJFINANCE 1,819 1,879
1,986
2,046
2,153
BAJAJFINSV 4,264 4,365
4,552
4,653
4,840
BPCL
273
283
302
313
332
BHARTIARTL
520
529
544
553
568
INFRATEL
197
202
206
211
215
BRITANNIA 3,057 3,083
3,124
3,150
3,191
CIPLA
557
579
592
613
626
COALINDIA
117
120
123
125
129
DRREDDY 3,536 3,608
3,685
3,757
3,834
EICHERMOT 12,103
12,546
13,298
13,740
14,493
GAIL
77
79
83
85
89
GRASIM
480
488
502
510
523
HCLTECH
501
506
512
517
523
HDFCBANK
795
816
852
873
909
HDFC 1,421 1,466
1,552
1,598
1,683
HEROMOTOCO
1,958
2,014
2,116
2,173
2,275
HINDALCO
110
113
117
119
124
HINDUNILVR 1,955 1,980
2,014
2,039
2,073
ICICIBANK
277
288
304
315
331
IOC
68
70
73
75
77
INDUSINDBK
345
361
390
406
434
INFY
645
654
662
672
680
ITC
161
163
165
167
169
JSW STEEL
153
158
167
172
181
KOTAKBANK 1,067 1,090 1
,133
1,156
1,199
LT
771
792
831
852
891
M&M
360
368
376
385
392
MARUTI 4,418 4,569
4,832
4,984
5,247
NESTLEIND 15,913
16,077
16,326
16,490
16,739
NTPC
86
88
89
90
92
ONGC
70
71
74
76
79
POWERGRID
149
152
156
159
163
RELIANCE 1
,396
1,419
1,450
1,473
1,504
SHREECEM 17,225
17,689
18,464
18,928
19,704
SBIN
148
151
159
163
170
SUNPHARMA
423
432
443
452
464
TCS 1,843 1,894
1,924
1,975
2,004
TATAMOTORS
77
79
82
84
86
TATASTEEL
255
261
268
274
282
TECHM
493
49
9
507
512
520
TITAN
789
803
824
838
859
ULTRACEMCO 3,085 3,196
3,393
3,504
3,700
UPL
356
366
375
385
395
VEDANTA
87
90
93
95
98
WIPRO
177
180
182
185
188
ZEEL
138
144
154
160
170
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 19, 2020
*
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