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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 18, 2019
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Sensex (
40357
(1
1895
)
In the week gone by, the price action can be precisely divided into
two parts. First being the tentative one on the back of some
worries in HANG SENG (Hong Kong) and the latter half where
markets looked to stabilise and then recovered completely. All in
all, the truncated week eventually concluded on a muted note. But
since the technical analysis gives more weightage to the latest
price development, the recovery looks encouraging and we are
standing at a crucial junction now.
Technically speaking, nothing much has changed from the
previous week. The only additional observation would be the
intra-week decline towards the psychological level of 11800,
which coincided with the ’89-EMA’ on hourly chart. So the index
is on the recovery path now and looking at the sheer
outperformance from the banking space during the week, we
expect the Nifty to head towards 11950 12034 soon. In fact, if
the similar traction continues in marquee banking names, we will
not be surprised to see index clocking record highs soon. Thus,
the bias remains positive and one should stick to a ‘Buy on
decline’ strategy.
As far as support levels are concerned, the week’s low of 11802
followed by 11750 is likely to act as a sheet anchor for this week.
Some of the other sectoral indices that attracted traders’ attention
towards the fag end were the Pharma, Metal and Auto. Do watch
out on these baskets which are likely to provide better trading
opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11800 Resistance 1 – 11950
Support 2 – 11760 Resistance 2 – 12000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
31008
)
During the week gone by, Nifty Bank Index outperformed as it
ended with gains of around 0.84% against the previous week
close.
The trend line breakout seen during the previous week acted as
strong support and intra-week dip got bought into. The marquee
private banking space outperformed during the week and on the
last day of the week, the PSU Banks joined the bulls party.
Looking at the broad base buying we expect Bank Nifty to
continue outperformance and reach the levels of 31200-31660
levels soon. On the flip side, dips should be taken as buying
opportunity with support placed around 30800-30350 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30800 Resistance 1 – 31200
Support 2 – 30350 Resistance 2 – 31660
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
It was another week of consolidation for our market,
we saw the benchmark index hovering in the range of
merely 200 points in last truncated week. The banking
index continued its outperformance and managed to
conclude the week almost a percent higher.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1008 cr. In index futures, they sold worth
Rs. 656 crores with rise in open interest, indicating
formation of short positions in the previous trading
session.
As far as open interest activities in index futures is
concerned, we hardly saw any relevant OI change for
Nifty; however, BankNifty added decent amount of
long positions. In addition, good amount of longs
rolled over in November series are also intact in the
system. Considering the overall positions, we maintain
our optimistic stance on the market and hence, would
advise traders to trade with a positive bias for this
week.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.75%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 6.76% as
market closed at 11895.45 levels.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
47.15 points against a premium of 27.55 points in last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 89.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.46 to 15.03.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.17 to 1.39.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, DISHTV, ZEEL, MGL and
TORNTPOWER.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHOLAFIN 4870000 21.14 329.15 5.50
BHARTIARTL 40411032 18.38 393.05 8.42
SBIN 107760000 16.38 321.90 5.47
IDEA 700070000 15.85 3.65 25.42
SIEMENS 2000350 15.17 1575.85 -2.52
CANBK 14596400 11.35 205.20 2.85
INFRATEL 16264000 9.67 227.20 7.68
ASHOKLEY 94686000 7.90 79.50 0.32
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
JUSTDIAL 3558800 -6.72 504.00 -1.86
BANKINDIA 19350000 -6.41 69.35 4.82
HEXAWARE 1428000 -6.02 335.95 0.84
SUNTV 3150800 -5.33 489.20 -0.51
AUROPHARMA 19939000 -5.08 410.25 3.51
PIDILITIND 3541500 -4.98 1316.65 -1.84
BHARATFORG 7893600 -4.87 439.80 0.45
TATACHEM 2180700 -4.53 639.15 1.08
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.39 0.91
BANKNIFTY 1.26 0.81
RELIANCE 0.69 0.55
ICICIBANK 0.86 0.59
INFY 0.57 0.45
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
DIVISLAB 35.43
BHARTIARTL 54.47
IDEA 199.19
GLENMARK 58.13
CHOLAFIN 57.09
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
118
95.45
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
November
15
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3191.65 3847.76 (656.11) 211268 17559.20 3.44
INDEX
OPTIONS
180129.21 179054.29 1074.92
656496 54299.37 13.12
STOCK
FUTURES
12697.14 12732.72 (35.58) 1576183 92291.09 0.48
STOCK
OPTIONS
6531.77 6535.67 (3.90) 91053 5147.59 2.13
Total 202549.77
202170.44
379.33
2535000
169297.25
3.79
Turnover on
November
15
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
342900 25003.22 -0.94
INDEX
OPTIONS
10126783 730971.26 -76.01
STOCK
FUTURES
872221 50128.93 16.14
STOCK
OPTIONS
905170 56835.73 28.86
TOTAL 1,22,47,074
862939.14 -72.69
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 119.25
46.40 53.60 11946.40
Sell 12000 72.85
Buy 11900 119.25
79.95 120.05 11979.95
Sell 12100 39.30
Buy 12000 72.85
33.55 66.45 12033.55
Sell 12100 39.30
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 121.35
38.30 61.70 11861.70
Sell 11800 83.05
Buy 11900 121.35
64.30 135.70 11835.70
Sell 11700 57.05
Buy 11800 83.05
26.00 74.00 11774.00
Sell 11700 57.05
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Con
stituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 362 364
368 370 373
ASIANPAINT 1,739 1,750
1,767 1,778 1,795
AXISBANK 704 711
717 723 730
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,170 3,193
3,223 3,245 3,275
BAJFINANCE 4,132 4,160
4,203 4,231 4,275
BAJAJFINSV 8,971 9,014
9,077 9,121 9,184
BPCL 498 502
508 512 518
BHARTIARTL 342 367
383 409 424
INFRATEL 190 209
221 240 252
BRITANNIA 3,139 3,167
3,214 3,242 3,288
CIPLA 423 443
456 476 488
COALINDIA 198 200
202 204 206
DRREDDY 2,695 2,713
2,730 2,748 2,766
EICHERMOT 20,830 21,077
21,488 21,736 22,147
GAIL 121 123
124 125 126
GRASIM 706 731
749 774 793
HCLTECH 1,128 1,135
1,147 1,155 1,167
HDFCBANK 1,264 1,271
1,278 1,285 1,292
HDFC 2,193 2,208
2,224 2,239 2,254
HEROMOTOCO 2,478 2,511
2,563 2,595 2,648
HINDALCO 185 187
188 190 191
HINDUNILVR 2,021 2,039
2,069 2,088 2,118
ICICIBANK 488 494
502 508 516
IOC 128 130
133 135 139
INDUSINDBK 1,322 1,340
1,364 1,383 1,407
INFY 696 700
706 710 717
ITC 246 249
252 254 258
JSW STEEL 238 241
246 249 253
KOTAKBANK 1,592 1,607
1,618 1,634 1,645
LT 1,352 1,365
1,379 1,392 1,405
M&M 573 578
585 589 596
MARUTI 6,965 7,056
7,207 7,299 7,450
NESTLEIND 14,011 14,153
14,295 14,437 14,579
NTPC 116 117
118 118 120
ONGC 133 134
137 138 140
POWERGRID 186 187
188 189 190
RELIANCE 1,450 1,460
1,474 1,484 1,497
SBIN 305 313
319 327 332
SUNPHARMA 406 411
415 419 423
TCS 2,142 2,158
2,185 2,201 2,228
TATAMOTORS 164 166
170 172 176
TATASTEEL 384 389
396 401 408
TECHM 741 746
755 760 769
TITAN 1,144 1,151
1,163 1,170 1,182
ULTRACEMCO 3,983 4,030
4,062 4,109 4,141
UPL 507 519
530 542 554
VEDANTA 139 140
143 145 148
WIPRO 250 251
253 254 255
YESBANK 67 68
69 70 71
ZEEL 272 280
287 295 302
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.c
om
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]angelbroking.com
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