www.
angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
September 18, 2020
Nifty
look
-
(
22320
)
The Bank Index as well started on a weak note and then it
witnessed choppy moves within a range to end with a loss of 1.12%
at 22320.
On the daily chart not much has changed as prices for the seventh
consecutive session continue to trade within a range of 22000 and
22800. We reiterate our view that the directional move can only
be seen on a breakout from either side of this range. We sense the
breakout is likely to be seen in the next few sessions. A break below
22000 can drag the bank index further lower towards 21630 -
21400 levels whereas a breakout above 22800 can trigger 23100
- 23450 levels. Traders are hence advised to be vigilant on the
above levels and trade in the direction of breakout for a trending
move.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 22100 Resistance 1 – 22550
Support 2 – 22000 Resistance 2 – 22800
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (38980) / Nifty (11516)
Yesterday morning, the global markets looked nervous and hence,
we were about to open lower after Wednesday's smart move. The
SGX Nifty was indicating a start below 11500 with more than 100
points cut; but fortunately, Nifty did not open in line with what SGX
was indicating. In fact, post the initial hiccup, markets stabilized and
recovered a bit. However, the global weakness eventually weighed
down heavily and we corrected towards 11500 around the midpoint.
Post this, some volatile swings were witnessed in a range of 50 points
to eventually conclude the weekly expiry tad above the 11500 mark.
Although, yesterday's weakness in our market has to do with the
global cues, we are not surprised with it. Despite a strong tail end
surge on Wednesday, we avoided longs and had mentioned the
configuration of the 'Bearish Wolfe Wave' pattern on the hourly
chart. The observation has certainly proved its significance yesterday;
but honestly speaking, yesterday's correction was nowhere close to
a sell-off, rather can only be interpreted as a small profit taking. But
having said that we continue to remain cautious and still do not
expect the Nifty to surpass the sturdy wall of 11650-11700 soon.
Going forward, 11480-11450 would be seen as crucial support and
a move below this would trigger some decent correction thereafter.
Also, we would like to draw attention towards the 'US Dollar Index'
which has corrected significantly in the last couple of months.
Recently, this index has formed a base around the 92 mark and is
now about to surpass the key hurdle of 93.60-94. Since US Dollar
Index and Equity markets are inversely correlated, any surge in this
would lead to correction in our markets. Hence, it is important to
take a note of this development as well.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
As far as individual movers are concerned, we did not see any
broader market sell off yesterday. There were a number of themes
who were bucking the trend throughout the day. But we still advise
caution and even if one wants to participate in such potential
movers, avoid aggressive bets and look to book timely profits or exit
if it does not turn out to be a favorable trade.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11480 Resistance 1 – 11600
Support 2 – 11450 Resistance2 – 11650
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 18, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
11100
11200
11300
11400
11500
11600
11700
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/109/119/149/159/169/17
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
Following the weakness in the global cues, our markets
started on a negative note and after witnessing choppy
moves within a range ended with loss of 0.76% at
11561.10.
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 250 crores. In index futures, they sold worth Rs.
673 crores with increase in open interest indicating
short formations and long unwinding in yesterday’s fall.
The indices traded with a negative bias on the weekly
expiry session but no significant open addition was seen
yesterday. However, FII's added some more short
positions in the index futures segment and hence, over
53 percent of their positions in the index futures are
now on the short side. For the coming expiry, open
interest is scattered in call options in 11500 and above
strikes; whereas 11500 and 11400 put options have
decent open interest outstanding indicating immediate
supports. The stronger hands have added short
positions in last couple of sessions, hence traders are
advised to avoid aggressive positions and trade with a
stock specific approach.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.24%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.97%
as market closed at 11516.10 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of 6.3
point against a premium of 11.85 point in last trading
session. The October series closed at a premium of 23.65
point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 19.66 to 20.1.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.61 to 1.30.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, BANKBARODA, SAIL, LUPIN AND MRF.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ZEEL 31029000 11.39 221.10 2.38
SAIL 60895000 10.56 38.15 0.39
APOLLOTYRE 9605000 10.28 134.55 3.84
POWERGRID 14700000 9.96 168.30 -1.94
BAJAJFINSV 858250 9.19 6007.00 -2.37
HINDALCO 30585900 6.48 175.85 -4.23
SRF 645500 5.82 4392.65 1.02
BAJFINANCE 5392500 5.66 3471.90 -1.45
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ACC 2122500 -8.08 1409.60 1.04
RAMCOCEM 1150050 -7.14 750.50 -1.68
MFSL 1805700 -6.78 621.40 -0.38
LICHSGFIN 8780000 -6.34 306.25 1.47
AUROPHARMA 14721200 -5.91 810.80 -2.48
MINDTREE 2120000 -5.39 1274.65 0.82
IGL 6370375 -4.91 418.60 1.63
WIPRO 26524800 -4.75 311.70 -0.05
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.30 1.00
BANKNIFTY 0.78 0.79
RELIANCE 0.64 0.49
ICICIBANK 0.44 0.45
INFY 0.70 0.37
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
DRREDDY 37.33
APOLLOHOSP 54.26
APOLLOTYRE 52.92
HINDALCO 64.52
DLF 66.22
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 18, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11516.10
FII Statistics for September 17, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
3643.78
4316.71
(672.93) 142554
11330.26
2.45
INDEX
OPTIONS
299683.57
297101.84
2581.73
731548
58057.66
(17.60)
STOCK
FUTURES
13088.67
14247.27
(1158.60) 1219140
86655.28
0.62
STOCK
OPTIONS
6259.20
6187.49
71.71
116776
8444.88
2.13
Total 322675.22
321853.31
821.91
2210018
164488.08
(6.07)
Turnover on September 17, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,07,780 27461.59 4.97
Index Options
5,64,60,334 37,12,393.63 120.24
Stock Futures 7,72,172 59216.40 -0.58
Stock Options
12,82,989 1,08,810.22 -8.36
Total 5,89,23,275 39,07,881.84 106.76
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 126.30
51.35 48.65 11551.35
Sell 11600 74.95
Buy 11500 126.30
87.20 112.80 11587.20
Sell 11700 39.10
Buy 11600 74.95
35.85 64.15 11635.85
Sell 11700 39.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 103.15
34.55 65.45 11465.45
Sell 11400 68.60
Buy 11500 103.15
58.50 141.50 11441.50
Sell 11300 44.65
Buy 11400 68.60
23.95 76.05 11376.05
Sell 11300 44.65
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000 12100 12200 12300
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 18, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
338
342
349
353
359
ASIANPAINT 1,973 1,990
2,018
2,035
2,063
AXISBANK
435
439
443
447
451
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,967 2,993
3,011
3,038
3,056
BAJFINANCE 3,421 3,446
3,482
3,507
3,543
BAJAJFINSV 5,907 5,957
6,040
6,090
6,174
BPCL
408
412
415
419
423
BHARTIARTL
470
475
478
483
487
INFRATEL
192
194
198
200
203
BRITANNIA 3,703 3,759
3,825
3,881
3,947
CIPLA
738
745
753
760
769
COALINDIA
122
123
125
126
127
DRREDDY 4,585 4,706
4,776
4,897
4,967
EICHERMOT 2,107 2,126
2,144
2,163
2,181
GAIL
90
90
91
92
92
GRASIM
704
715
727
737
749
HCLTECH
777
793
805
821
833
HDFCBANK 1,069 1,076
1,085
1,092
1,101
HDFC
583
587
593
597
603
HEROMOTOCO 1,715 1,730
1,751
1,766
1,788
HINDALCO 2,995 3,028
3,063
3,096
3,131
HINDUNILVR
171
173
178
181
185
ICICIBANK 2,109 2,119
2,132
2,141
2,155
IOC
365
367
369
371
374
INDUSINDBK
81
81
82
83
83
INFY
603
610
617
625
632
ITC
983
997
1,009
1,023
1,035
JSW STEEL
176
177
179
181
183
KOTAKBANK
281
284
286
289
292
LT 1,286 1,295
1,311
1,321
1,336
M&M
897
902
910
914
923
MARUTI
620
628
636
644
652
NESTLEIND 6,875 6,980
7,047
7,152
7,218
NTPC 15,961
16,041
16,170
16,250
16,379
ONGC
88
88
89
89
90
POWERGRID
72
73
73
74
75
RELIANCE
166
1
67
169
171
173
SHREECEM 2,266 2,283
2,308
2,324
2,350
SBIN 19,441
19,665
20,020
20,244
20,599
SUNPHARMA
193
194
196
197
199
TCS
503
508
515
519
526
TATAMOTORS 2,424 2,442
2,469
2,488
2,514
TATASTEEL
143
146
148
150
153
TECHM
386
3
92
400
406
414
TITAN
763
775
793
805
823
ULTRACEMCO 1,157 1,170
1,181
1,193
1,204
UPL 3,899 3,934
3,979
4,014
4,059
VEDANTA
513
522
529
538
546
WIPRO
302
307
312
317
321
ZEEL
211
216
220
225
230
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 18, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com