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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
22574
)
On Tuesday, Bank Nifty witnessed an upsurge during the last hour
and a strong opening was expected in yesterday's session. The
Bank Index however started on a flat note and crept lower for the
first half. Subsequently, the bank nifty witnessed a sharp bounce
from the lower levels during the second half quite similar to the
previous session and ended with gains of 0.48% at 22574.
If we meticulously observe the daily chart, the bank index for the
last six sessions is consolidating within a range of 22000 - 22800
and the next directional move can only be seen on a breakout from
this range. The prices have now closed near the higher range of
consolidation and the way some of the heavyweights private
banks have moved in the second half of last two sessions a
possibility of breakout on the upside cannot be ruled out. In such
a case, bank index may move towards 23300 - 23650 levels in the
near term. On the flip side, 22000 remains a sacrosanct point. We
reiterate to have a stock specific approach that are likely to give
better trading opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 22100 Resistance 1 – 22800
Support 2 – 22000 Resistance 2 – 23000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Hourly Chart
Se
nsex
(
39303)
/ Nifty
(
11605
)
We had a flat to positive start yesterday despite SGX Nifty indicating
a sluggish start early in the morning. Similar to recent trend, the
index consolidated in a small range throughout the first half.
However, post the mid session, some strong buying emerged in
banking as well as IT counters. This resulted into Nifty surpassing the
intraday hurdle of 11570 to reclaim the 11600 mark.
In last couple of days, banking stocks have been witnessing some
late surge and hence, with the help of other index movers, Nifty has
been steadily moving higher. Since last 2-3 days, we have been
sounding a bit optimistic ever since we spotted a ‘Bullish Wolfe wave’
pattern on hourly chart around 11250-11200. The said pattern has
proved its significance but we are now observing the similar structure
but unfortunately this time it is ‘Bearish Wolfe Wave’ and 11620-
11650 is the ‘Potential Reversal Zone’, exactly where we are standing
now. Hence, during the day, we were a bit skeptical and avoided
participating on the long side. With a broader view also, we are a bit
unsure whether the Nifty has enough strength to go pass the sturdy
wall of 11650-11680.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11570 Resistance 1 – 11650
Support 2 – 11540 Resistance 2 – 11680
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
For the coming session, 11620-11650-11680 continues to be a
strong resistance zone and we advise traders not get carried away
by last 2-3 days’ upmove. As far as supports are concerned, 11570-
11540 would be seen as intraday supports and a move below 11540
would give early signs of weakness. It may sound a bit repetitive but
we would like to keep advocating caution and one should avoid
carrying aggressive longs overnight for a while. Apart from this, Mid
and small cap stocks have been the centre of attraction since the
start of the week but they have also started loosing some steam
now.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
11100
11200
11300
11400
11500
11600
11700
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/14 9/15 9/16
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
After a flat start and consolidation for the first half; the
benchmark index witnessed strong upmove during the
second half to end with gains of 0.72% tad above
11600.
FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 265 crores. In index futures, they sold worth Rs.
414 crores with increase in open interest indicating
short formations created yesterday.
Nifty surpassed the 11600 mark supported by long
formations as the open interest increased by over 5
percent. However, inspite of the positive momentum,
FII's were sellers in the index futures segment. They
started the September series on a very optimistic note
but they gradually unwound their longs and formed
short positions too. Hence, their 'Long Short Ratio' has
declined to below 50 percent which means they now
have more short positions open. In options segment,
11500 call option witnessed unwinding of positions but
good amount of open interest is still there in 11600 and
11700 calls in the weekly as well as the monthly series.
On the flipside, 11500 is the support as per the options
data. For today's session, it would be crucial to see how
the writers of 11600 call act during the day. Hence,
intraday traders are advised to look at the intraday data
and trade accordingly. However, looking at the overall
data and FII's positioning, short term traders are advised
to lighten up the positions if the index approaches the
11650-11700 range.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.64%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.98%
as market closed at 11604.55 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
11.85 point against a premium of 5.6 point in last trading
session. The October series closed at a premium of 25.05
point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 20.6 to 19.66.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.47
to 1.61.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, ADANIENT, NATIONALUM, L&TFH AND
SAIL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
NMDC 41144700 18.64 90.75 1.39
SUNTV 5337000 14.37 479.05 -3.05
UBL 1484700 11.51 1031.35 -1.68
ITC 121702400 11.21 180.65 -0.60
PNB 55258000 9.00 33.60 0.75
CHOLAFIN 5867500 7.56 238.60 2.02
SAIL 55081000 7.33 38.00 -3.54
HAVELLS 5689000 7.02 679.95 1.07
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ASHOKLEY 31275000 -9.06 78.90 1.28
TATACHEM 7728000 -8.72 301.70 -1.29
MOTHERSUMI 23814000 -5.74 122.55 1.28
LICHSGFIN 9374000 -5.45 309.60 2.30
BAJAJ-AUTO 1521250 -5.14 3037.95 3.19
SHREECEM 181150 -4.81 20387.65 1.59
SIEMENS 1899700 -4.56 1255.55 1.16
VEDL 121036400 -4.55 134.30 2.28
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.61 0.99
BANKNIFTY 0.83 0.89
RELIANCE 0.73 0.39
ICICIBANK 0.47 0.43
INFY 0.63 0.33
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
DRREDDY 36.98
RAMCOCEM 43.21
M&M 51.22
CADILAHC 43.32
BAJAJ-AUTO 43.68
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11604.55
FII Statistics for September 16, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
3324.51
3738.06
(413.55) 139141
11194.62
6.14
INDEX
OPTIONS
195762.65
195217.62
545.03
887754
69328.11
1.97
177589.05
STOCK
FUTURES
13069.54
13998.08
(928.54) 1211626
86732.14
(0.02)
STOCK
OPTIONS
6910.64
6944.89
(34.25) 114339
8319.61
2.90
Total 219067.34
219898.65
(831.31) 2352860
175574.48
1.21
197578.59
Turnover on September 16, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 3,98,662 26162.18 -8.74
Index Options
2,54,69,127 16,85,635.44 21.78
Stock Futures 7,83,349 59562.38 0.62
Stock Options
14,07,656 1,18,739.48 8.96
Total 2,80,58,794 18,90,099.48 19.55
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11600 120.00
50.20 49.80 11650.20
Sell 11700 69.80
Buy 11600 120.00
84.80 115.20 11684.80
Sell 11800 35.20
Buy 11700 69.80
34.60 65.40 11734.60
Sell 11800 35.20
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11600 102.45
33.75 66.25 11566.25
Sell 11500 68.70
Buy 11600 102.45
55.05 144.95 11544.95
Sell 11400 47.40
Buy 11500 68.70
21.30 78.70 11478.70
Sell 11400 47.40
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000 12100 12200 12300
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
346
350
353
357
360
ASIANPAINT 1,978 1,995
2,011
2,028
2,044
AXISBANK
435
440
446
4
51
456
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,897 2,967
3,008
3,079
3,120
BAJFINANCE 3,438 3,480
3,524
3,565
3,609
BAJAJFINSV 6,024 6,085
6,162
6,224
6,301
BPCL
406
409
415
419
424
BHARTIARTL
474
478
484
488
494
INFRATEL
196
198
201
203
207
BRITANNIA 3,691 3,768
3,814
3,891
3,937
CIPLA
723
738
747
762
772
COALINDIA
122
123
124
125
125
DRREDDY 4,323 4,476
4,563
4,715
4,803
EICHERMOT 2,123 2,143
2,166
2,186
2,208
GAIL
91
91
92
93
93
GRASIM
701
711
724
734
747
HCLTECH
771
780
788
797
805
HDFCBANK 1,058 1,076
1,086
1,104
1,114
HDFC
587
593
599
605
611
HEROMOTOCO 1,731 1,750
1,762
1,781
1,793
HINDALCO 2,982 3,019
3,062
3,099
3,142
HINDUNILVR
172
178
181
187
190
ICICIBANK 2,092 2,118
2,138
2,164
2,185
IOC
360
3
68
372
379
384
INDUSINDBK
81
82
82
83
84
INFY
598
610
625
637
653
ITC
973
987
996
1,011
1,020
JSW STEEL
178
179
181
183
185
KOTAKBANK
283
286
289
291
294
LT 1,288 1,307
1,319
1,338
1,351
M&M
906
914
919
927
932
MARUTI
601
620
635
654
669
NESTLEIND 6,961 7,010
7,089
7,138
7,217
NTPC 15,983
16,090
16,158
16,265
16,333
ONGC
88
89
90
91
92
POWERGRID
71
72
73
74
75
RELIANCE
169
171
172
173
175
SHREECEM 2,276 2,300
2,335
2,359
2,394
SBIN 19,729
20,058
20,276
20,605
20,822
SUNPHARMA
194
196
198
200
202
TCS
497
508
514
525
531
TATAMOTORS 2,466 2,484
2,496
2,515
2,526
TATASTEEL
146
149
151
154
157
TECHM
398
402
406
409
413
TITAN
780
786
790
796
800
ULTRACEMCO 1,154 1,168
1,178
1,192
1,203
UPL 3,896 3,935
3,960
3,999
4,023
VEDANTA
517
523
528
534
539
WIPRO
300
306
310
316
319
ZEEL
211
213
216
219
222
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical & Derivatives Queries E-mail: [email protected]king.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com