Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2018
Sensex (38091) / Nifty (11515)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Last three weeks have been quite identical in nature when it
comes to the price action. We had highlighted a typical corrective
phase scenario of the Bull market last week i.e. if market has to
undergo some kind of correction, we see that pain coming out in
the first half of the week and the latter part tries to make up for
the damage. Similarly, the bears just went berserk in the first half
of the week as we witnessed Nifty taking a nosedive of nearly 300
points with massive destruction in the broader market. But as per
our historical observations, the second half turned out to be the
knight in shining armour for our market after USDINR cooling off
from the 73 mark. A strong bout of buying on Friday resulted into
reclaiming of 11500.
What we saw in the first half and what happened in the second,
it’s just completely contrast actions of market participants. Things
became extremely scary when index tanked below the 11300
For the coming sessions, 11603 would be seen as an important
mark. But fortunately for us, currency had some kind of respite,
resistance; but, we believe that it’s a matter of time; we may see
which coincided with Nifty finding a strong support around its
this hurdle getting crossed and the Nifty again heading towards
important swing low of 11234.95 (low on August 02, 2018). Due
11700 - 11760 levels. Although, index has not completely
to last two days’ of v-shaped recovery, index managed to recoup
recovered from the losses, the way it has closed, some
of nearly 80% of the damage done in the initial part. We
somehow maintained our bullish stance at lower levels also and
encouraging cues have been left to expect some fireworks in
this week. The broad based recovery always augurs well for a
fortunately, did not get carried away by the velocity at which
healthy move and hence, one should trade with a positive bias
market corrected. In order to gain further strength, we had
by seeing 11430 - 11380 as an immediate support zone.
highlighted one scenario for the Nifty that it should manage to
surpass the crucial hurdle of 11500 convincingly. And now
Key Levels
looking at Friday’s move, it’s quite clear that the mighty bulls
Support 1 - 11430
Resistance 1 -
11603
have again stamped their authority in the market. Going ahead,
Support 2 - 11380
Resistance 2 -
11700
we continue with our optimistic stance and expect Nifty to resume
its northward trajectory.
Nifty Bank Outlook - (27164)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Post forming a 'Bullish Hammer' pattern at its retracement support
on Wednesday, the Nifty Bank index opened higher with a gap
on Friday and rallied to erase some of the losses seen during
initial couple days of the week.
As mentioned in our Friday's report, the reversal pattern formed
at the important support level should lead to an up move and
Friday's move was exactly in line with the technical pattern formed
on the previous day. However, as the recent corrective move was
an impulsive down move, the retracements of this correction
could act as resistance from a short-term perspective. The 38.2%
& 50% retracements of this correction are placed around 27250
and 27480 respectively. Short-term traders are advised to stay
with the momentum for the above-mentioned retracement targets.
On the flipside, the gap area of 26990-26895 would be seen as
a support zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 26990
Resistance 1 -
27250
Support 2 - 26895
Resistance 2 - 27480
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.30%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 15.85%
as market closed at 11515.20 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
32.10 points against a premium of 47.45 points in last
trading session. The October series closed at a premium
of 69.60 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 14.25 to 13.84. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.29 to 1.38.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are HCC, RCOM, SOUTHBANK, GMRINFRA and
INFIBEAM.
Views
FIIs turned net buyers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 1091 crores. At the same time, they bought worth
OI Gainers
Rs. 458 crores in index futures with fall in open interest,
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
indicating short covering took place on Friday’s trading
BALRAMCHIN
16996000
43.24
88.65
13.69
session
AMARAJABAT
1169700
14.53
800.95
-2.25
In options front, they bought worth Rs. 1202 crores with
MRPL
6934500
14.40
74.05
2.05
some fall in open interest. As far as Nifty options
CUMMINSIND
932400
13.27
754.75
-2.90
activities are considered, we hardly saw any fresh
CHENNPETRO
1320000
11.82
289.95
2.30
build-up in call options; however good amount of
BATAINDIA
1824900
11.04
1040.75
0.16
unwinding was seen in 11300-11800 strikes. On the flip
HINDALCO
40775000
9.64
245.45
3.39
side, huge build-up was seen in 11500 put option. In
addition, 11100-11200 put strikes shed decent positions.
TORNTPHARM
808000
9.34
1738.25
-0.73
Maximum open interest for September series is placed at
11800 followed by 11600 call and 11400 followed by
OI Losers
11000 put options.
OI
PRICE
Post stronger selling in the first two trading sessions of
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
the week; we witnessed v-shaped recovery to conclude
TATAGLOBAL
15016500
-13.13
233.95
4.98
the week tad above
11500 mark. In index futures
COLPAL
1605100
-7.39
1123.20
1.15
segment, we hardly saw any relevant OI change in the
SYNDIBANK
27684000
-7.29
38.20
4.35
declines especially for Nifty; however, longs were added
BPCL
12045600
-7.04
354.50
5.75
as and went market showed strength. We also saw
BAJAJFINSV
816250
-6.99
6709.65
4.30
decent long rollovers which are still in system. At the
AJANTPHARM
876500
-6.56
1213.55
1.93
same time, good amount of unwinding was observed in
SRF
923000
-6.48
2008.25
1.05
OTM call options on Friday’s session. Considering the
EXIDEIND
7204000
-6.44
273.50
1.24
above data points, we expect further upside scope above
the immediate hurdle of 11600-11650 going ahead.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
BALRAMCHIN
78.38
NIFTY
1.38
0.93
IBULHSGFIN
49.39
BANKNIFTY
1.02
0.84
WOCKPHARMA
53.13
RELIANCE
0.54
0.55
GRANULES
75.10
ICICIBANK
0.45
0.53
BPCL
44.17
INFY
0.55
0.67
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2018
FII Statistics for September 14, 2018
Turnover on September 14, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
3131.71
2673.36
458.35
286785
24747.25
(3.71)
199197
18872.83
-33.28
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
81520.43
80318.28
1202.15
952043
84877.78
(0.49)
4794760
482385.46
-77.15
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
12566.61
12345.88
220.73
1203156
90434.96
0.29
STOCK
FUTURES
803153
57281.77
-12.21
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
9446.59
9361.55
85.04
126924
9495.01
2.17
705965
53913.52
-6.02
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
106665.35
104699.08
1966.27
2568908
209555.00
(0.37)
TOTAL
6503075
612453.58
-72.92
Nifty Spot = 11369.90
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
11500
126.15
Buy
11500
81.50
52.80
47.20
11552.80
28.70
71.30
11471.30
Sell
11600
73.35
Sell
11400
52.80
Buy
11500
126.15
Buy
11500
81.50
88.95
111.05
11588.95
47.55
152.45
11452.45
Sell
11700
37.20
Sell
11300
33.95
Buy
11600
73.35
Buy
11400
52.80
36.15
63.85
11636.15
18.85
81.15
11381.15
Sell
11700
37.20
Sell
11300
33.95
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
371
376
381
385
391
ASIANPAINT
1,284
1,309
1,323
1,348
1,362
AXISBANK
625
631
637
643
649
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,840
2,859
2,884
2,903
2,929
BAJFINANCE
2,603
2,638
2,661
2,695
2,718
BAJAJFINSV
6,240
6,475
6,637
6,872
7,034
BPCL
334
344
350
361
367
BHARTIARTL
366
375
382
390
397
INFRATEL
268
271
274
277
279
CIPLA
654
660
665
671
676
COALINDIA
271
274
280
283
289
DRREDDY
2,531
2,556
2,576
2,601
2,621
EICHERMOT
28,618
29,001
29,213
29,596
29,808
GAIL
364
367
371
374
379
GRASIM
1,009
1,036
1,051
1,079
1,094
HCLTECH
1,052
1,061
1,075
1,084
1,098
HDFCBANK
2,010
2,020
2,029
2,038
2,047
HDFC
1,865
1,895
1,912
1,942
1,959
HEROMOTOCO
3,130
3,158
3,179
3,208
3,229
HINDALCO
236
241
245
250
254
HINDPETRO
241
247
251
257
260
HINDUNILVR
1,594
1,612
1,630
1,648
1,667
IBULHSGFIN
1,122
1,174
1,205
1,257
1,287
ICICIBANK
320
324
328
332
336
IOC
149
152
154
157
159
INDUSINDBK
1,818
1,845
1,864
1,891
1,909
INFY
720
727
736
743
752
ITC
303
305
307
309
311
KOTAKBANK
1,221
1,231
1,238
1,247
1,254
LT
1,342
1,351
1,359
1,367
1,376
LUPIN
951
960
971
979
990
M&M
918
935
945
962
972
MARUTI
8,516
8,571
8,636
8,691
8,755
NTPC
169
172
173
177
178
ONGC
167
170
171
174
176
POWERGRID
191
195
199
203
207
RELIANCE
1,231
1,242
1,259
1,270
1,287
SBIN
287
289
290
292
293
SUNPHARMA
650
657
663
669
676
TCS
1,998
2,032
2,052
2,085
2,105
TATAMOTORS
260
263
267
270
273
TATASTEEL
605
610
615
620
626
TECHM
708
734
748
774
788
TITAN
819
831
841
853
864
ULTRACEMCO
4,057
4,123
4,161
4,227
4,265
UPL
698
718
728
747
758
VEDANTA
222
229
233
239
243
WIPRO
320
325
329
334
338
YESBANK
311
317
323
329
335
ZEEL
461
467
470
476
479
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 17, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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