www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
August 17, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
21679
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty witnessed an 'Open High' scenario and was
under pressure for the first half. The real sell-off was seen during
the second half as the bank index ended with deep cuts of 2.33%
at 21679. For the first half of the week gone by the bank index
made an attempt to show some outperformance however it failed
to cross 61.8% retracement of recent fall (23211 - 21031) and
witnessed a sharp selloff on Friday. As mentioned above for Nifty,
we can also observe and 'Head and Shoulder' pattern formation
in Bank Nifty with neckline placed around 21000. The said neckline
has acted as strong support for three times in the last two months
and will be a sacrosanct level going ahead. A breakdown below
the same could trigger further weakness towards 20060 and
19530 levels. Traders are henced advised to be watchful and avoid
aggressive bets. On the flip side, immediate resistance is now
placed at 22000 and 22350.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21210 Resistance 1 – 22000
Support 2 – 21000 Resistance 2 – 22350
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
37877)
/ Nifty
(
11178
)
During the last week, our markets started off higher owing to
favorable cues from the global peers. Subsequently, index slipped
into a consolidation mode as the real focus shifts to the mid and
small cap universe. For the first four straight sessions, Nifty gyrated
in a very slender range around 11300-11350. The similar price
behavior was witnessed on Friday as well during the first half.
However, all of a sudden, major global markets started correcting
sharply which had a rub off effect on our market as well. Nifty which
was merely vacillating in a range of 80-100 points throughout the
week, finally succumbed to the selling pressure and went on to test
the 11100 mark. Eventually, due to modest recovery towards the fag
end, Nifty concluded the week tad below 11200, marking more than
a percent loss on Friday.
Friday’s correction was no surprise to us as we have been
consistently advocating caution in our intra-week commentary.
Now, if we take a look at the daily chart, the ‘Head and Shoulder’
pattern is clearly visible and this is what we mentioned in our
previous commentary. Friday’s low precisely coincides with the
neckline level of this pattern. Hence, going ahead, a breach of 11100
would lead into an immediate correction towards 10975 10875.
This was overall a price-wise hypothesis on Nifty; but we would also
like to highlight one time-wise observation as well. On the weekly
chart, if we apply Fibonacci Time Series’ from March lows, the
current weekly candle ends 6th ‘Time Zone’ and is entering a new
one. Generally, such points are considered a potential reversal zone
and hence, one needs to be a bit cautious going forward as our
anticipation may probably turn into a reality below 11100.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Throughout the week, our benchmark did nothing and the real
action was seen in the broader market. As we all know, when mid
and small cap counters start moving, it generally creates a euphoric
situation and this is exactly what we witnessed. Since the MIDCAP 50
was approaching the ‘200-SMA’ on the weekly chart, we advised
caution on Thursday and the index obliged to our view. To
summarize, we would like to mention that even if the market goes
through some corrective phase for some time, it will certainly not be
as severe as the March one. Hence, a healthy correction would
probably provide better entry points for those who have missed the
bus in the last few months.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11100 Resistance 1 – 11270
Support 2 – 11000 Resistance 2 – 11350
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
August 17, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10600
10700
10800
10900
11000
11100
11200
11300
11400
10,400
10,600
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
11,800
8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
The indices consolidated within a range for most part of
the week, but it corrected in later half on Friday and
ended below 11200.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 46 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 413 crores with decrease in open interest
indicating short covering and long formation on Friday
.
While no significant build up was seen in Nifty, open
interest increased by about 14 percent in Bank Nifty.
During the week, FII’s did not add any significant fresh
positions in index futures, however, they formed some
short positions in stock futures. On the other hand,
retail clients formed bullish positions through index
options segment. The options data hints a resistance
now at 11300 for this week and support at 11000. The
build in put options in the coming weekly segment is
low, but the monthly series has decent build up at
11000 put. Traders are advised to keep a tab of the
same as any unwinding in those positions could lead to
some correction in the near term. Thus, one should
avoid forming aggressive positions and trade with
proper risk management.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.62%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.16%
as market closed at 11178.40 levels.
The Nifty August future closed with a premium of 8.3
point against a premium of 16.9 point in last trading
session. The September series closed at a premium of
26.1 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 20.56 to 21.67
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.33 to 1.31.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, ASHOKLEY, BANDHANBNK,
TATAPOWER, AND CADILAHC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
EICHERMOT 319655 24.06 20143.70 -6.91
MRF 35200 11.39 61435.65 -3.91
CADILAHC 9880200 10.10 395.45 2.66
POWERGRID 14240000 8.04 175.40 -2.24
UJJIVAN 2802800 7.15 237.70 -0.02
LUPIN 8364000 6.75 1018.20 9.60
UBL 1658300 6.00 963.65 -2.36
TATASTEEL 18035300 5.97 418.50 1.52
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RAMCOCEM 1785000 -20.99 678.45 -4.34
ASHOKLEY 52578000 -18.41 61.60 1.14
BALKRISIND 1905600 -16.77 1315.90 -5.39
BHEL 62391000 -14.65 37.35 -4.09
INDIGO 3009500 -13.06 1139.15 -2.46
CENTURYTEX 2312800 -12.73 311.65 -0.80
CONCOR 6791235 -11.88 379.60 0.30
GLENMARK 6511300 -11.20 475.70 2.63
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.31 1.03
BANKNIFTY 0.75 0.95
RELIANCE 0.62 0.44
ICICIBANK 0.51 0.56
INFY 0.62 0.48
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
LUPIN 48.13
EICHERMOT 55.72
RAMCOCEM 43.23
MRF 39.29
BOSCHLTD 51.15
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
August 17, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (August Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11178.40
FII Statistics for August 14, 2020
Detail Buy
Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4576.38
4163.26
413.12
114511
8645.58
(2.23)
INDEX
OPTIONS
184204.06
183984.19
219.87
607794
47853.96
13.87
STOCK
FUTURES
16706.81
17087.30
(380.49) 1293177
89699.35
0.06
STOCK
OPTIONS
7350.21
7337.83
12.38
92383
6424.55
3.11
Total 212837.46
212572.58
264.88
2107865
152623.44
3.69
Turnover on August 14, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,00,780 33603.23 56.70
Index Options 1,68,78,630
11,79,194.94
-63.24
Stock Futures 9,67,506 69251.37 21.85
Stock Options 14,51,557 1,09,744.21 30.05
Total 1,97,98,473
13,91,793.75
-58.71
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 154.65
46.45 53.55 11246.45
Sell 11300 108.20
Buy 11200 154.65
83.00 117.00 11283.00
Sell 11400 71.65
Buy 11300 108.20
36.55 63.45 11336.55
Sell 11400 71.65
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 168.40
42.75 57.25 11157.25
Sell 11100 125.65
Buy 11200 168.40
74.70 125.30 11125.30
Sell 11000 93.70
Buy 11100 125.65
31.95 68.05 11068.05
Sell 11000 93.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000
Call Put
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
August 17, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
338
343
349
353
359
ASIANPAINT 1,775 1,789
1,809
1,823
1,844
AXISBANK
412
424
438
450
464
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,945 2,966
2,997
3,019
3,050
BAJFINANCE 3,219 3,275
3,362
3,418
3,505
BAJAJFINSV 6,069 6,158
6,279
6,368
6,489
BPCL
399
406
416
423
433
BHARTIARTL
514
521
532
539
550
INFRATEL
193
196
201
204
209
BRITANNIA 3,710 3,756
3,798
3,844
3,886
CIPLA
736
754
771
789
806
COALINDIA
127
129
132
134
137
DRREDDY 4,409 4,464
4,525
4,580
4,641
EICHERMOT 18,970
19,557
20,654
21,241
22,337
GAIL
93
95
97
98
100
GRASIM
614
622
631
638
647
HCLTECH
694
702
715
722
735
HDFCBANK 1,004 1,019
1,043
1,058
1,081
HDFC
575
581
592
598
609
HEROMOTOCO
1,746
1,769
1,796
1,819
1,847
HINDALCO 2,714 2,759
2,801
2,846
2,889
HINDUNILVR
176
181
185
189
194
ICICIBANK 2,134 2,154
2,185
2,205
2,236
IOC
345
353
362
371
380
INDUSINDBK
83
84
86
87
89
INFY
487
497
510
520
534
ITC
945
949
956
960
967
JSW STEEL
191
193
198
201
206
KOTAKBANK
254
260
263
269
273
LT 1,274 1,291
1,319
1,335
1,363
M&M
947
965
991
1,009
1,035
MARUTI
590
602
620
632
650
NESTLEIND 6,435 6,512
6,628
6,705
6,822
NTPC 16,159
16,257
16,403
16,501
16,647
ONGC
85
87
88
90
91
POWERGRID
76
76
78
78
80
RELIANCE
170
173
177
179
183
SHREECEM 2,052 2,083
2,120
2,151
2,188
SBIN 20,955
21,207
21,453
21,705
21,952
SUNPHARMA
189
193
198
202
208
TCS
516
524
530
538
544
TATAMOTORS 2,204 2,223
2,252
2,271
2,300
TATASTEEL
118
121
127
130
136
TECHM
398
408
420
430
441
TITAN
681
688
700
707
719
ULTRACEMCO 1,075 1,090
1,104
1,119
1,133
UPL 3,897 3,953
4,022
4,079
4,148
VEDANTA
472
479
488
495
504
WIPRO
273
275
278
280
283
ZEEL
153
157
162
166
172
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
August 17, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical & Derivatives Queries E-mail: technica[email protected]
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration
number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for
accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed
public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits
and risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com