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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 1
6, 2019
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Sensex (
) / Nifty
(1
1428
)
As hinted by SGX Nifty, our markets started on a mild positive
note which was followed by a range-bound consolidation for the
first half with a positive bias. Subsequently, as Index sustained
above 11400 a spurt of buying was seen in the second half to
mark intraday high of 11461 and eventually after some profit
booking Nifty ended with gains of 0.77% at 11428.
With reference to our previous articles, Yesterday’s up move was
no surprise and the only required development was Index closing
above 11400 levels. A sustained trade above this level was a
trigger point that resulted in optimism back in the environment
after the recent hostile volatile conditions. Now, if we look at the
daily chart, the Index exactly witnessed some resistance at 61.8%
retracement of recent fall (11695-11090) at 11460 levels and
this will be the level to watch as technically a break above the
same can open doors back towards the 11695 levels.
Considering yesterday’s stock-specific strength where there was a
gush of buying seen (especially in Auto and Metals) we expect
Index to break above the mentioned resistance soon and to
continue its northward journey. Traders are hence advised to
keep a positive bias and to have stock-specific trades that are
providing outperforming opportunities. As far as support levels
are concerned, immediate support is placed around 11340-
11300 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11340 Resistance 1 – 11460
Support 2 – 11300 Resistance 2 – 11540
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
28555
)
Yesterday, Bank Nifty Index started on a mild positive note which
was followed by a range-bound session with positive bias for the
first half. In the second half, Bank Nifty extended its morning
gains and eventually ended with gains of 1.32% at 28555.
On the daily chart, Bank Nifty continues to trade within the broad
range of 27560-28860 and with yesterday's positive momentum
Index has inched closer towards the mentioned higher range.
Going ahead the way buying was seen in some of the marquee
banking counters we sense the bank index to break 28860 very
soon and extend upmove towards 29200-29560 levels in the
near term. Traders are hence advised to have a stock-specific
positive approach from banking basket with a proper exit
strategy. On the flip side, immediate support is placed around
28000 followed by 27560 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28000 Resistance 1 – 28860
Support 2 – 27560 Resistance 2 – 29200
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began yesterday’s session on a positive note and
saw some range-bound move in the initial few hours.
In the latter half, we witnessed fresh buying coming in
to bring index above 11400 mark. Post minor profit
booking in the final hour, index managed to conclude
the session with a gains of another 0.77%
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 436 cr. In index futures, they bought worth
Rs. 744 crores with fall in open interest, indicating short
covering took place for the third consecutive session.
In F&O segment, we saw decent short-coveringin both
Nifty as well as BankNifty recently. Since the past three
sessions, stronger hands have been buying equities
and have been covering their shorts in the index futures
segment; which is indeed a good indication from their
end. At present,the highest open interest concentration
has also shifted higher from 11200 to 11300 puts. At
the same time, fresh writing took place in 11400 puts
along with unwinding in ATM call strike. Considering
the above F&O data, we maintain our optimistic stance
on the market and would advise traders to use declines
to add-on fresh longs.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.21%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 0.19% as
market closed at 11428.30 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 11.10
points against a discount of 4.85 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
55.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 17.43 to 16.85.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.18 to 1.32.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, FEDERALBNK, GMRINFRA, DISHTV
and EXIDEIND.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CENTURYTEX 1892400 18.66 384.25 0.50
BIOCON 14610600 12.35 260.30 3.05
MUTHOOTFIN 2178000 11.69 652.90 -0.82
INDIGO 3034800 11.46 1752.05 -0.66
COLPAL 1814400 10.49 1557.55 2.45
JUSTDIAL 3152800 8.48 578.70 -5.10
PVR 1048000 7.55 1819.15 1.51
SRF 1001250 7.09 2624.60 0.56
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
STAR 2169600 -10.23 355.60 5.51
CESC 1010400 -9.40 782.45 1.58
SUNTV 3090000 -5.27 490.10 2.07
CONCOR 4521759 -4.36 595.00 2.72
HINDUNILVR 8904900 -3.66 2064.40 2.42
NIITTECH 621000 -3.27 1424.70 0.49
EQUITAS 9756000 -3.25 101.40 1.19
MGL 1409400 -3.21 949.10 0.90
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.32 0.97
BANKNIFTY 1.11 0.87
RELIANCE 0.88 0.71
ICICIBANK 0.62 0.54
INFY 0.49 0.39
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
JUSTDIAL 57.83
STAR 58.93
ADANIENT 57.77
OIL 40.59
EICHERMOT 61.22
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
428.30
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
15
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3662.26
2918.59
743.67
159094
12703.60
(1.74)
INDEX
OPTIONS
185849.08
185712.05
137.03
760235
59850.82
3.42
STOCK
FUTURES
11625.54
11267.59
357.95
1554487
89883.65
0.48
STOCK
OPTIONS
4518.79
4513.40
5.39
88647
4847.96
6.40
Total 205655.67
204411.63
1244.04
2562463
167286.03
1.38
Turnover on
Oc
tober
15
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
363553 24902.53 -7.74
INDEX
OPTIONS
12232301 823946.48 10.31
STOCK
FUTURES
791796 41413.15 1.62
STOCK
OPTIONS
714525 40481.05 5.94
TOTAL 1,41,02,175
930743.21 9.13
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11400 171.00
51.60 48.40 11451.60
Sell 11500 119.40
Buy 11400 171.00
92.25 107.75 11492.25
Sell 11600 78.75
Buy 11500 119.40
40.65 59.35 11540.65
Sell 11600 78.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11400 132.85
37.75 62.25 11362.25
Sell 11300 95.10
Buy 11400 132.85
64.50 135.50 11335.50
Sell 11200 68.35
Buy 11300 95.10
26.75 73.25 11273.25
Sell 11200 68.35
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 405 409
412 416 419
ASIANPAINT 1,779 1,792
1,808 1,821 1,837
AXISBANK 675 682
688 696 702
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,922 2,967
2,998 3,043 3,075
BAJFINANCE 3,808 3,846
3,881 3,919 3,954
BAJAJFINSV 7,946 7,997
8,063 8,114 8,180
BPCL 485 488
491 494 498
BHARTIARTL 375 379
385 389 396
INFRATEL 252 254
257 259 262
BRITANNIA 3,080 3,128
3,161 3,209 3,242
CIPLA 430 438
443 451 457
COALINDIA 186 189
191 193 195
DRREDDY 2,636 2,661
2,679 2,703 2,721
EICHERMOT 17,909 18,549
18,924 19,564 19,939
GAIL 124 126
127 129 131
GRASIM 685 694
700 710 715
HCLTECH 1,069 1,079
1,089 1,098 1,109
HDFCBANK 1,200 1,212
1,219 1,230 1,237
HDFC 1,996 2,005
2,018 2,026 2,039
HEROMOTOCO 2,573 2,625
2,663 2,715 2,753
HINDALCO 182 187
191 197 201
HINDUNILVR 2,003 2,031
2,054 2,083 2,106
ICICIBANK 425 428
432 436 439
IOC 143 145
147 148 150
INDUSINDBK 1,220 1,246
1,262 1,287 1,303
INFY 759 764
770 775 781
ITC 243 246
247 250 252
JSW STEEL 208 214
220 226 233
KOTAKBANK 1,556 1,586
1,608 1,638 1,660
LT 1,408 1,420
1,433 1,444 1,457
M&M 557 570
578 592 600
MARUTI 6,728 6,857
6,938 7,067 7,148
NESTLEIND 13,940 14,014
14,109 14,183 14,278
NTPC 116 118
119 120 122
ONGC 134 136
138 140 142
POWERGRID 197 199
200 202 204
RELIANCE 1,347 1,356
1,363 1,371 1,379
SBIN 253 256
258 261 263
SUNPHARMA 389 393
396 400 404
TCS 2,011 2,024
2,036 2,049 2,060
TATAMOTORS 121 124
127 129 132
TATASTEEL 329 339
349 359 368
TECHM 713 717
723 727 733
TITAN 1,245 1,258
1,267 1,281 1,289
ULTRACEMCO 4,111 4,159
4,189 4,237 4,267
UPL 575 579
585 589 595
VEDANTA 140 147
151 158 163
WIPRO 237 240
243 246 249
YESBANK 38 39
40 42 43
ZEEL 227 239
246 258 265
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Webs
ite:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cs[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.[email protected]angelbroking.com
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