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March 16, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
35183)
The BANKNIFTY started the week on a flat note but within few
minutes of trade, selling reinforced in the market (especially in
financial names), which led to a sharp correction in the first hour.
The weakness extended in the following hours to fall as much as
1000 points from the morning high. However the sentiments
seemed to have improved quite a lot in the latter half of the
session. Eventually, due to smart recovery in some of the
heavyweight constituents, the banking index managed to trim
major portion of losses to conclude with less than a percent loss.
Around the mid-session, the overall picture looked a bit dicey as
prices were trading convincingly below the recent swing low of
34658.70. With the help of the late recovery, we can see relatively
better close on the daily chart. However, we are still not
completely out of the woods; because the price structure on the
intraday chart does not bode well for the bulls. We can see
BANKNIFTY trading below ‘200-SMA’ on the hourly time frame
and till the time banking index does not cross 35500 – 36000, the
up move should only be construed as a bounce back. Hence, we
need to see if there is any follow up buying to the yesterday’s last
hour surge, which probably would decide the direction for the
remaining part of the week.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 34650 Resistance 1 – 35500
Support 2 – 34430 Resistance 2 – 36000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (50395) / Nifty (14930)
Post the sharp sell off on Friday, our markets started the day on a
flat note above the 15000 mark. However, we saw selling pressure
right from the word go and Nifty corrected sharply to breach
14750 level during the day. The banking index was reeling under
pressure and it seemed that bears had complete control. However,
the index started recovering gradually in the last couple of hours
and managed to trim much of the intraday losses and end well
above 14900.
We had a roller coaster move at the start of the week as the index
corrected for most part of the day and then it recovered in last
couple of hours to recoup most of the intraday losses. Nifty
registered its all-time high a month ago and since then our market
is going through a corrective phase. Trading in this corrective
phase has been difficult as the market has witnessed volatile moves
on both the sides of the trade. As of now, there are no signs to the
end of this corrective phase and hence, we could continue to see
such volatility in the near term.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Traders are advised to avoid getting carried away and rather look
for stock specific opportunities on both sides. As far as levels are
concerned, the immediate support for the Nifty is placed around
14700 while resistance is seen around 15050.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14700 Resistance 1 – 15000
Support 2 – 14830 Resistance2 – 15050
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March 16, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2/22 2/24 2/26 3/2 3/4 3/8 3/10 3/15
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post Friday’s sharp fall, we began yesterday’s session
on a flat note
and saw
follow
-up selling to correct
towards 14800 in the initial hour of trade. As the day
progressed, we witnessed some consolidation near
14750-14800 but soon index recouped major portion of
the intraday losses to conclude tad above 14900 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune
of Rs. 1101 crores. In Index Future segment, they sold
worth Rs. 497 crores with some rise in open interest
indicating long unwinding and short formations.
In F&O space, we saw open interest reduction in
both the indices
. In options front, 14800-15100 call
options added decent positions. On the opposite side,
some build-up was seen in 14800 put followed by
unwinding in 14900-15300 strikes. Interestingly, PCR-OI
has plunged below 1, which is mainly due to decent
build-up in call options and unwinding in puts. We also
witnessed decent surge in Future premiums in the
recovery seen in last two hours of trade, which would
bode well for bulls. The above data remainds unclear as
of now; hence, the follow-up activity in today’s session
shall dictate the direction move going aheah. As far as
levels are concerned, 15000-15100 shall now act as a
hurdle; whereas, immediate support is placed around
14700 mark.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.49%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.12%
as market closed at 14929.50 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 39.25
point against a premium of 20.45 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 112.20
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 21.71 to 21.22.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.02 to 0.93.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are PEL, TVSMOTOR, VEDL, MOTHERSUMI AND
AMARAJABAT.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
COFORGE 451500 32.89 2825.45 3.94
ICICIPRULI 8829000 13.87 450.25 -2.27
LALPATHLAB 158250 13.24 2409.80 3.44
TORNTPOWER 3006000 10.72 414.15 0.51
TCS 7900800 6.79 3066.15 0.25
HINDALCO 32555300 6.71 333.80 1.11
BANDHANBNK 20300400 6.56 339.40 -2.78
VEDL 141415800 6.38 226.25 2.13
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BHEL 114492000 -12.08 55.25 3.17
PFC 35637600 -11.85 136.85 -0.65
COALINDIA 40530000 -6.62 146.90 0.58
INDUSINDBK 23270400 -5.22 1038.65 1.67
IOC 72488000 -4.99 101.05 0.50
PNB 218272000 -4.56 40.80 2.01
MGL 1223400 -4.41 1223.35 1.42
NMDC 43958700 -4.09 135.85 1.34
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.93 0.83
BANKNIFTY 0.69 1.01
RELIANCE 0.38 0.41
ICICIBANK 0.40 0.54
INFY 0.69 0.47
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SAIL 67.01
DIVISLAB 39.24
LALPATHLAB 47.70
SIEMENS 39.85
COFORGE 60.96
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14929.50
FII Statistics for March 15, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
5427.07 5924.20 (497.13) 127829 13669.48 0.35
INDEX
OPTIONS
422032.67 419146.66 2886.01
1056155 111974.06 7.07
STOCK
FUTURES
11328.09 12129.06 (800.97) 1156849 100315.06 (0.68)
STOCK
OPTIONS
16546.51 16684.51 (138.00) 164725 14221.01 2.71
Total 455334.34
453884.43
1449.91
2505558
240179.61
2.73
Turnover on March 15, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,40,050 42943.55 -6.99
Index Options
3,03,70,922
29,96,065.74 19.55
Stock Futures 6,48,283 59890.34 -11.65
Stock Options
17,53,635 1,63,981.10 -2.96
Total 3,32,12,890
32,62,880.73 16.98
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14900 271.20
56.65 43.35 14956.65
Sell 15000 214.55
Buy 14900 271.20
103.80 96.20 15003.80
Sell 15100 167.40
Buy 15000 214.55
47.15 52.85 15047.15
Sell 15100 167.40
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14900 202.15
36.85 63.15 14863.15
Sell 14800 165.30
Buy 14900 202.15
68.60 131.40 14831.40
Sell 14700 133.55
Buy 14800 165.30
31.75 68.25 14768.25
Sell 14700 133.55
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500
Call Put
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March 16, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
696
707
718
729
739
ASIANPAINT 2,291 2,323
2,375
2,407
2,460
AXISBANK
701
723
738
760
776
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,533 3,599
3,687
3,753
3,841
BAJFINANCE 5,223 5,331
5,458
5,566
5,694
BAJAJFINSV 9,309 9,499
9,734
9,924
10,159
BPCL
445
453
459
467
473
BHARTIARTL
511
517
522
528
534
BRITANNIA 3,378 3,414
3,435
3,472
3,493
CIPLA
783
794
801
813
820
COALINDIA
144
145
146
148
149
DIVISLAB 3,281 3,346
3,436
3,501
3,591
DRREDDY 4,186 4,264
4,363
4,441
4,540
EICHERMOT 2,548 2,609
2,646
2,707
2,744
GAIL
138
141
144
147
151
GRASIM 1,329 1,357
1,374
1,402
1,419
HCLTECH
958
975
985
1,002
1,012
HDFCBANK 1,498 1,513
1,531
1,546
1,564
HDFCLIFE
685
695
705
714
724
HDFC 2,461 2,498
2,533
2,570
2,605
HEROMOTOCO 3,166 3,215
3,292
3,341
3,419
HINDALCO
321
327
332
338
342
HINDUNILVR 2,170 2,190
2,204
2,224
2,238
ICICIBANK
580
592
602
614
625
IOC
99
100
101
103
104
INDUSINDBK
968
1,003
1,023
1,059
1,079
INFY 1,349 1,361
1,371
1,383
1,392
ITC
200
203
204
207
209
JSW STEEL
409
419
425
436
442
KOTAKBANK 1,868 1,893
1,919
1,944
1,969
LT 1,427 1,455
1,492
1,520
1,557
M&M
805
825
843
863
881
MARUTI 6,936 7,013
7,088
7,165
7,240
NESTLEIND 16,531
16,682
16,781
16,932
17,031
NTPC
106
108
110
112
113
ONGC
111
112
115
117
119
POWERGRID
217
220
223
227
230
RELIANCE 2,044 2,077
2,113
2,145
2,181
SBILIFE
892
906
916
931
941
SHREECEM 26,655
27,150
27,500
27,995
28,345
SBIN
363
374
380
390
396
SUNPHARMA
588
597
605
614
623
TCS 3,011 3,038
3,069
3,096
3,127
TATAMOTORS
306
312
316
323
327
TATASTEEL
706
721
730
745
754
TECHM
992
1,009
1,020
1,037
1,047
TITAN 1,461 1,477
1,487
1,502
1,513
ULTRACEMCO 6,388 6,475
6,577
6,664
6,766
UPL
596
609
617
630
638
WIPRO
413
420
424
431
435
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives [email protected]gelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com