www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
)
The BankNifty index halted trading at 21352 within few minutes
post opening on Friday. However, the index witnessed sharp
upmove when the markets re-opened and it crept higher
throughout the day to end with gains of about 5 percent from the
previous days close. We witnessed erratic movement in the index
on Friday and if we look at the long term charts, then the Friday's
low coincides around the '89 EMA' on the monthly chart, which is
usually considered as a long term support. Ofcourse, it seems
easy to look at the bounce from this support but actually
predicting such move post hitting the lower circuit in the index was
highly improbable. As of now, we would read this as a pullback
move which has already retraced by 38.2 percent of the recent
downmove. If we continue the upmove, then 50% retracement will
be the next probable zone which is around 26500. Considering
the wide movement in the last couple of sessions, the volatility is
likely to remain high and hence, it would be difficult to given
levels for day trading. Traders should look to trade with the
momentum during the day with proper risk management.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 24000 Resistance 1 – 26000
Support 2 – 23765 Resistance 2 – 26500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (
34103)
/ Nifty
(
9955
)
During the last week, we had mentioned about this fall
probably a brutal one in last 12 years. Clearly, we are driven
by fear and sentiments on the back of coronavirus pandemic
across the globe. We had a terrible start for the week on
Monday and if we call this worse, then probably worst was yet
to come. On Thursday, benchmarks opened with a deeper cut
and went on to thrash more than 8% at the close. This
extended fall with combination of meltdown in global markets
created complete panic in our markets. This resulted into our
markets hitting a lower circuit of 10% in the opening trades
itself on Friday. Whatever happened that was yet another
incidence of how this market has turned abnormal in nature.
We resumed trading after 45 minutes of halt and before
anyone could realize, markets started rebounding quite swiftly.
Within a blink of an eye, we were considerably off lows and in
fact the upward momentum aggravated as the day progressed
to post biggest ever intraday recovery. In last few sessions, the
INDIA VIX, which is also called as the fear index, has risen
quite sharply and has ended the week above the 50 mark.
Higher the volatility index, market tends to move steeply and
hence, the market is likely to continue with some large swings
in the near term.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
R
esistance for the index is seen around
10200
and if we surpass
the same, then next levels to watch would be around the 50%
retracement mark of the recent fall which is seen around 10400.
On the flipside, 9700 and 9400 would be seen as the immediate
support levels. All eyes would continue to be on the developments
with respect to the Corona Virus cases which is likely to dictate the
near term movement. Traders are advised to avoid leverage
positions and trade with a proper risk management strategy.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 9700 Resistance 1 – 10200
Support 2 – 9400 Resistance 2 – 10400
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
,0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2-252-262-272-28 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-9 3-113-123-13
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Views
During the week, the indices continued to plunge and
registered a low of 8555 on Friday when it hit the day’s
lower limit. It recovered the losses post re-opening and
ended the week tad below 10000 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 6028 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 2498 crores with decrease in open interest,
indicating short covering on Friday.
FII’s continued their selling streak in the cash segment
and they sold net equities worth Rs. 19614 crores
during the week. In index futures segment, they covered
some of their short positions on Friday. Their ‘Long
Short’ ratio now stands around 22%. India VIX rose
sharply during the week and has ended above the 50
mark which is a major cause of concern. Hence, the
index is likely to trade with higher volatility in the near
term. Until we see a drop in the volatility index, we are
unlikely to see sustained move on the upside and
hence, we continue with our advice for traders to avoid
taking undue risk for short term.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 4.36%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
24.05% as market closed at 9955.20 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a discount of 57.5
points against a discount of 43.55 points in last trading
session. The April series closed at a discount of 11.9
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 41.16 to 51.47.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 0.90 to 1.11.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are OIL, IDEA, NIITTECH, MOTHERSUMI and
NMDC.
OI
Gai
ners
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCLIFE 4154400 49.39 507.85 7.55
PVR 2632400 20.51 1305.70 -11.33
IDEA 750876000 18.90 5.60 34.52
CHOLAFIN 5892500 16.34 245.05 0.49
ADANIPORTS 38585000 13.19 292.75 0.83
IOC 56692000 12.99 92.25 0.34
BPCL 22221000 10.93 376.05 4.47
NAUKRI 524800 9.42 2292.45 -3.02
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GLENMARK 4046000 -21.77 209.60 5.14
BANKBARODA 44361000 -19.18 65.35 14.37
COALINDIA 33066900 -16.48 154.10 -0.23
TATASTEEL 20452500 -16.11 326.60 12.18
CANBK 13964600 -15.18 107.40 9.13
SBIN 117111000 -15.06 242.00 13.20
JUSTDIAL 2238600 -14.58 380.15 1.43
HINDPETRO 10300500 -14.08 197.60 5.91
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.11 0.50
BANKNIFTY 0.70 0.34
RELIANCE 0.37 0.32
ICICIBANK 0.54 0.46
INFY 0.48 0.48
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
MRF 54.65
HDFC 69.58
SAIL 128.89
BANKBARODA 110.42
IDEA 231.47
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
9955.20
Lot Size = 75
FII
Statistics for
March
13
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
14992.35
12494.78
2497.57
210953
14709.25
(15.35)
INDEX
OPTIONS
88329.08
88152.48
176.60
913779
65463.11
4.07
STOCK
FUTURES
22062.18
19961.36
2100.82
1501109
80299.88
(1.92)
STOCK
OPTIONS
5537.07
5222.30
314.77
72727
3908.75
(6.97)
Total 130920.68
125830.92
5089.76
2698568
164380.99
(1.37)
Turnov
er
on M
arch
13
,
20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 1167632 73685.31 87.97
Index Options 9211010 615568.00 -52.40
Stock Futures 1318203 67897.14 31.67
Stock Options 843205 50266.47 21.92
Total 1,25,40,050
807416.92 -43.35
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
10000 408.40
50.50 49.50 10050.50
Sell 10100 357.90
Buy 10000 408.40
104.60 95.40 10104.60
Sell 10200 303.80
Buy 10100 357.90
54.10 45.90 10154.10
Sell 10200 303.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9900 472.00
46.40 53.60 9853.60
Sell 9800 425.60
Buy 9900 472.00
78.50 121.50 9821.50
Sell 9700 393.50
Buy 9800 425.60
32.10 67.90 9767.90
Sell 9700 393.50
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
9300
9400
9500
9600
9700
9800
9900
10000
10100
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
Call Put
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 206 250
275 318 344
ASIANPAINT 1,597 1,697
1,770 1,871 1,944
AXISBANK 401 485
535 619 670
BAJAJ-AUTO 1,884 2,121
2,277 2,513 2,669
BAJFINANCE 2,997 3,475
3,759 4,237 4,521
BAJAJFINSV 6,024 6,883
7,383 8,243 8,743
BPCL 228 302
349 423 471
BHARTIARTL 385 438
474 527 563
INFRATEL 192 210
226 243 259
BRITANNIA 2,101 2,432
2,741 3,072 3,381
CIPLA 326 376
405 455 485
COALINDIA 109 131
146 169 184
DRREDDY 2,351 2,618
2,877 3,144 3,402
EICHERMOT 13,808 15,740
17,134 19,067 20,461
GAIL 54 69
80 96 107
GRASIM 454 529
581 656 707
HCLTECH 347 420
469 541 590
HDFCBANK 861 966
1,023 1,128 1,186
HDFC 1,524 1,795
1,960 2,231 2,395
HEROMOTOCO 1,379 1,632
1,787 2,040 2,195
HINDALCO 93 110
120 137 147
HINDUNILVR 1,782 1,908
2,014 2,139 2,246
ICICIBANK 366 407
436 476 505
IOC 70 81
87 98 104
INDUSINDBK 446 625
730 909 1,013
INFY 529 586
626 683 723
ITC 124 143
154 173 183
JSW STEEL 160 187
203 230 245
KOTAKBANK 1,049 1,260
1,382 1,593 1,715
LT 830 941
1,001 1,111 1,171
M&M 304 366
408 471 512
MARUTI 4,308 5,073
5,568 6,334 6,829
NESTLEIND 13,161 14,076
14,966 15,881 16,771
NTPC 74 86
93 105 113
ONGC 44 55
61 72 78
POWERGRID 140 154
163 177 186
RELIANCE 865 985
1,063 1,183 1,260
SBIN 161 202
225 266 289
SUNPHARMA 293 338
371 416 449
TCS 1,397 1,602
1,711 1,916 2,025
TATAMOTORS 71 80
87 97 103
TATASTEEL 228 277
305 354 381
TECHM 473 565
617 709 761
TITAN 866 975
1,055 1,164 1,244
ULTRACEMCO 2,741 3,265
3,638 4,162 4,536
UPL 348 379
409 440 470
VEDANTA 62 73
80 91 98
WIPRO 155 176
190 211 226
YESBANK 19 22
25 28 31
ZEEL 136 159
178 202 221
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 16, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cs[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]elbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration
number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for
accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed
public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.