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February 16, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
37306)
Bank Nifty as well started with a gap up opening and while some
consolidation was seen in the broader markets; the bank nifty
continued to move higher throughout the session to end with
gains of 3.32% tad above 37300.
On Friday, we witnessed some outperformance from the banking
space, and the follow-up move in yesterday's session resulted
Bank Nifty breaking above the recent consolidation phase above
36600. Technically, the bias remains positive and momentum is
strongly gripped by the bulls however with oscillators in the
overbought zone we advise traders not to get complacent and
avoid aggressive bets. The real action is likely to remain within
the stock-specific trades and one should continue with it having a
proper exit setup. As far as levels are concerned, previous
resistance around 36600 is likely to act as immediate support
whereas the 37850 - 38000 is likely to act as resistance.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 37000 Resistance 1 – 37850
Support 2 – 36600 Resistance 2 – 38000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (52154) / Nifty (15315)
After a brief pause last week, our markets resumed their upward
momentum on the back of global optimism and encouraging
macro numbers. Barring initial small decline, the index slowly and
gradually kept marching higher to add another percent to the bull’s
kitty and importantly marking a fresh record high beyond 15300.
Undoubtedly, yesterday’s move was mainly propelled by the
financial space as we can see top seven contributors in Nifty
yesterday, are from this space only.
Last week, we witnessed some breather in the market after a
marathon rally post Union budget. Yesterday, the momentum was
once again provided by the financial stocks and hence we saw only
BANKNIFTY extended the gains throughout the day; whereas some
of the other heavyweights spaces, went sideways. Now, although
the overall trend has been strongly bullish and markets are not
willing to correct at all, it would be very difficult to give bigger
upside levels from hereon. We can observe a cluster of resistance in
the zone of 15380 15500, which is the 161% ‘Golden Ratio’ of the
entire fall from Jan’20 highs to March’20 lows. Hence, we advise
momentum traders to keep booking profits in the ongoing rally
and stay light on positions. On the flipside, 15250 15150 is to be
seen as immediate supports. The major support is at 15000 and
any decisive move below this level would lead to some decent
profit booking in the market.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Yes, we agree to the fact that the bulls are completely on rampage
but we do not want to get complacent at all. One needs to be
constantly keeping a tab on all important levels and should avoid
aggressive bets in the market.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 15250 Resistance 1 – 15380
Support 2 – 15150 Resistance2 – 15500
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 16, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1/21 1/25 1/28 2/1 2/3 2/5 2/7 2/10
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
We began yesterday’s session on a cheerful note tad
above 15250 mark and slowly marched towards 15350
mark. The benchmark index remained strong throughout
the day and eventually ended the session with the gains of
a percent.
FIIs were net buyers in equities, they bought to the tune of
Rs. 1234 crores. In index future segment, they bought
worth Rs. 523 crores with good amount of rise in open
interest indicating addition of fresh longs in yesterday’s
session.
Finally, Nifty surpassed the hurdle of 15300 mark due to
a blend of short covering and long formations.
However, this wouldn’t be possible without the eye-
catching move seen in the banking index which rallied
3.51%. This upmove was supported by addition of
meaningful long positions. In options front, we saw
some build-up in 15600 call options followed by
unwinding in 15200 strike. On the other side, we
witnessed a good amount of writing in 15200-15300
puts. Recently, Nifty futures were trading at a discount
but due to yesterday’s strong move beyond 15300,
futures traded with the premium of 17.50. Considering
the positive development seen in yesterday’s session,
we expect further strength towards 15450-15500.
Hence, traders are advised to trade with a positive bias
and keep adding longs on any intraday declines
towards 15
200
-
15
250
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.84%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
13.36% as market closed at 15314.70 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of
17.50 point against a discount of 1.85 point in last
trading session. The March series closed at a premium of
60.05 point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 23.04 to 21.47.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
1.38 to 1.57.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are SAIL, SRF, INDUSINDBK AND TCS.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 2043000 40.70 3090.65 12.64
AMARAJABAT 3140000 29.64 928.35 -6.46
CHOLAFIN 5637500 14.70 532.70 13.15
LICHSGFIN 9512000 13.13 476.05 7.78
CUMMINSIND 1491600 12.39 761.35 0.89
TATACHEM 9494000 10.42 568.65 1.46
COALINDIA 39072600 9.91 132.25 -1.42
RECLTD 14490000 9.87 152.75 3.79
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TORNTPHARM 1172250 -8.63 2606.25 1.35
VOLTAS 3827000 -8.25 1058.00 -2.04
SIEMENS 771650 -6.96 1875.40 1.95
ASHOKLEY 42552000 -6.30 130.40 1.75
ICICIGI 1006400 -6.11 1497.65 0.11
IDFCFIRSTB 175275000 -6.03 54.10 4.24
NESTLEIND 322000 -5.28 17479.90 0.99
ADANIENT 16382000 -4.21 763.40 6.37
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.57 1.06
BANKNIFTY 1.57 0.78
RELIANCE 0.47 0.41
ICICIBANK 1.27 0.48
INFY 0.46 0.41
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
APOLLOHOSP 51.95
CHOLAFIN 75.55
AMARAJABAT 44.31
LICHSGFIN 59.08
PEL 66.22
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 16, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
15314.70
FII Statistics for February 15, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
4223.06 3700.14 522.92
134951 14654.42 6.39
INDEX
OPTIONS
268552.43 266965.50 1586.93
951490 103698.79 7.30
STOCK
FUTURES
13817.35 13510.22 307.13
1229427 108261.29 0.93
STOCK
OPTIONS
16319.73 16120.45 199.28
196456 17439.33 0.18
Total 302912.57
300296.31
2616.26
2512324
244053.83
3.48
Turnover on February 15, 2020
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 3,12,394 31144.52 -7.24
Index Options 2,14,77,938
21,27,846.18 21.20
Stock Futures 7,62,020 74909.86 -6.03
Stock Options 18,23,647
1,82,492.63 -4.01
Total 2,43,75,999
24,16,393.19 17.35
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15300 189.10
49.45 50.55 15349.45
Sell 15400 139.65
Buy 15300 189.10
93.90 106.10 15393.90
Sell 15500 95.20
Buy 15400 139.65
44.45 55.55 15444.45
Sell 15500 95.20
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15200 161.30
37.55 62.45 15162.45
Sell 15100 123.75
Buy 15200 161.30
65.15 134.85 15134.85
Sell 15000 96.15
Buy 15100 123.75
27.60 72.40 15072.40
Sell 15000 96.15
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
14500
14600
14700
14800
14900
15000
15100
15200
15300
15400
15500
15600
15700
15800
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 16, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
597
612
626
642
655
ASIANPAINT 2,405 2,431
2,474
2,500
2,543
AXISBANK
737
766
782
811
827
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,060 4,091
4,143
4,174
4,226
BAJFINANCE 5,527 5,654
5,726
5,853
5,925
BAJAJFINSV 10,167
10,352
10,466
10,651
10,765
BPCL
412
416
420
424
428
BHARTIARTL
583
588
596
601
609
BRITANNIA 3,380 3,398
3,422
3,440
3,464
CIPLA
833
839
848
853
862
COALINDIA
130
131
133
134
136
DIVISLAB 3,673 3,692
3,721
3,740
3,769
DRREDDY 4,614 4,662
4,748
4,796
4,881
EICHERMOT 2,728 2,749
2,779
2,800
2,830
GAIL
130
132
134
136
137
GRASIM 1,193 1,210
1,234
1,252
1,276
HCLTECH
938
946
959
967
980
HDFCBANK 1,584 1,601
1,613
1,629
1,641
HDFCLIFE
679
687
702
710
725
HDFC 2,781 2,821
2,844
2,884
2,907
HEROMOTOCO 3,420 3,443
3,475
3,497
3,529
HINDALCO
285
288
292
295
299
HINDUNILVR 2,181 2,198
2,230
2,247
2,279
ICICIBANK
643
658
668
683
692
IOC
93
93
95
96
97
INDUSINDBK 1,027 1,043
1,053
1,068
1,078
INFY 1,294 1,302
1,315
1,323
1,336
ITC
216
217
219
221
223
JSW STEEL
397
401
404
407
411
KOTAKBANK 1,939 1,962
1,981
2,004
2,023
LT 1,512 1,525
1,534
1,547
1,557
M&M
888
900
910
922
932
MARUTI 7,539 7,568
7,609
7,637
7,678
NESTLEIND 17,166
17,323
17,415
17,572
17,664
NTPC
94
95
96
96
97
ONGC
94
96
98
100
101
POWERGRID
209
211
213
215
217
RELIANCE 2,003 2,018
2,040
2,054
2,076
SBILIFE
858
868
884
894
911
SHREECEM 27,793
28,223
28,532
28,962
29,270
SBIN
390
399
404
412
418
SUNPHARMA
615
621
629
635
643
TCS 3,083 3,111
3,160
3,189
3,238
TATAMOTORS
319
326
331
338
343
TATASTEEL
659
665
677
683
695
TECHM
966
972
984
991
1,003
TITAN 1,452 1,468
1,493
1,510
1,535
ULTRACEMCO 6,343 6,375
6,420
6,452
6,496
UPL
529
533
539
543
548
WIPRO
432
436
440
444
449
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 16, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives [email protected]gelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]g.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com