Technical & Derivatives Report
January 16, 2018
Sensex (34844) / Nifty (10742)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Trading for the week began on a cheerful note owing to excellent
cues from the global peers. Within first half of the month our
benchmark achieved second milestone of 10700 (first one being
10600) with an ease. And no brainer, the key component required to
reach there was the banking basket. Due to some cooling off in the
second half, the Nifty eventually closed tad below the 10750 mark by
adding over half a percent to Friday’s close.
Last week, we witnessed a series of narrow range candles in Nifty
and in fact, the Friday’s volatility led to ‘Dragonfly Doji’ pattern on
the daily chart. With yesterdays up move, the said pattern has been
negated as the high was breached convincingly before activating the
pattern. Although, the recent price action in index has been slightly
tricky for us, we do not see any conclusive evident to expect a strong
rally from current levels. Now, if we look at the daily chart, the Nifty
has reached ‘Upward Sloping Trend Line’ (drawn by connecting two
highs) and has come off a bit from morning high. Now, if we look at
the daily chart, we can witness a presence of ‘Gap Theory’ in last
couple of weeks. We saw ‘Breakout Gap’ and ‘Runaway Gap’ in this
course of action. Going by this, yesterdays gap ‘10713 - 10690
would now be seen as crucial support zone. If the Nifty manages to
hold this support then we can see continuation of the rally towards
10780 - 10800. But, in case, if the gap gets filled completely then it
becomes an ‘Exhaustion Gap’ and as per the theory, this may then
result into some profit booking. We accept that the market is showing
a gravity defying moves in recent months and hence, such
contradictory signals did not work well. But, where we are standing
now, it is necessary at our end to keep highlighting these possibilities
in order to keep traders a bit attentive. We have talked about the
benchmark but we can’t take the credit away from what banking
conglomerates have done yesterday. And we would like to highlight
that though we were not so certain about the actual direction, we
anticipated a make or break move in Bank Nifty soon and a
possibility of a strong upward momentum after surpassing the hurdle
of 25800. This is what exactly we saw yesterday and going ahead,
this pack plays an important role for our benchmarks. Hence, going
ahead, we would be closely keeping an eye on both these
possibilities mentioned in above sections. Traders are still advised to
remain light and be very selective while picking up a stock.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10713
Resistance 1 - 10780
Support 2 - 10690
Resistance 2 - 10800
Nifty Bank Outlook - (26069)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Post a consolidation phase of few weeks; the Nifty Bank index finally
gave a breakout above its resistance of 25800 in yesterday's trading
session. The index opened with a gap above its resistance and then
crept higher to surpass its earlier highs and end the day above the
26000 mark. The breakout in the index was led by the
heavyweight ICICI Bank, which also breached its resistance with a
gap yesterday, and was followed, by other heavyweights such as
HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank. While this sector has shown an
underperformance in last few weeks, this breakout should ideally
lead to a directional upmove in near term. However, if we observe
the daily chart, it is seen that the index is trading in a 'Rising Wedge'
pattern and the higher end of the pattern is placed around 26270,
which also coincides with 127% reciprocal retracement of the recent
corrective move. While this level could be tested in near term, the
move thereon would be crucial in determining further momentum.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 25843
Resistance 1 - 26200
Support 2 - 25775
Resistance 2 - 26270
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 16, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.21%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 20.26%
as market closed at 10741.55 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 1.75
points against a premium of 5.10 points in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
28.45 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 13.73 to 14.30. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 1.74
to 1.78 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are RCOM, AJANTPHARM, RNAVAL,EXIDEIND
and MARICO.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs activity in cash market segment remained subdued.
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
However, they were net sellers in index futures with good
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
amount of rise in OI, indicating some fresh short
CAPF
7879200
37.29
849.50
0.94
formation in yesterday’s trading session.
PCJEWELLER
15204000
23.35
587.15
6.39
On options front, they were marginal sellers with rise in
HDFC
16565000
20.75
1870.10
6.23
OI. In call options, 10750-10900 strikes added good
IFCI
99264000
14.87
32.80
0.77
amount of fresh positions; followed by unwinding in
KOTAKBANK
13977600
14.23
1036.65
1.53
10600-10700 call option. On the flip side, 10600 and
DCBBANK
7470000
10.89
203.05
0.52
10700 put options continued adding meaningful
CHENNPETRO
3222000
10.27
463.10
3.37
positions; meanwhile, now 10750 and 10800 strikes
TITAN
10813500
8.93
922.25
1.67
have also added decent positions. Maximum
concentration of open interest is firmly placed at 11000
call and 10500 put options.
OI Losers
The benchmark index extended its gains to hit a fresh
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
record high; meanwhile, we witnessed good amount of
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
HAVELLS
4150000
-8.35
561.05
1.98
long formation in index futures; especially in BankNifty.
SUNTV
5301000
-7.42
1076.10
-0.14
As far as FIIs activities are concerned, except for some
shorts in index futures, they formed positive bets in F&O
DISHTV
52129000
-6.30
78.35
-0.19
space. They added fresh long positions in stock futures
JISLJALEQS
52434000
-5.56
143.65
0.35
and index call options and simultaneously formed shorts
NIITTECH
949500
-5.24
702.80
-0.31
in index put options. Considering the above data points,
POWERGRID
30264000
-4.81
199.65
1.22
we expect market to strengthen going ahead and unless
ICIL
8740000
-4.69
133.45
0.19
index remains above
10550-10600, traders should
TV18BRDCST
82875000
-4.17
65.45
-1.06
avoid forming any bearish bets.
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.78
1.34
HDFC
33.15
BANKNIFTY
1.32
0.88
EXIDEIND
28.12
INFY
0.83
0.69
AMBUJACEM
22.90
TATAMOTORS
0.38
0.35
ICICIBANK
29.78
RELIANCE
0.46
0.32
KTKBANK
32.46
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 16, 2018
FII Statistics for January 15, 2018
Turnover on January 15, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1954.44
2508.82
(554.37)
239840
19942.15
8.20
201316
18142.02
-9.38
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
41392.94
41477.96
(85.02)
958176
79327.51
5.94
4945722
456955.26
6.51
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
10245.62
8574.97
1670.65
981517
74041.78
0.86
STOCK
FUTURES
737419
58390.16
-10.96
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
7490.52
7377.30
113.22
114385
8943.78
8.51
571477
46152.29
-3.87
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
61083.52
59939.04
1144.48
2293918
182255.22
4.05
TOTAL
6455934
579639.73
3.03
Nifty Spot = 10741.55
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10800
42.95
Buy
10700
54.80
27.05
72.95
10827.05
22.45
77.55
10677.55
Sell
10900
15.90
Sell
10600
32.35
Buy
10800
42.95
Buy
10700
54.80
36.95
163.05
10836.95
34.85
165.15
10665.15
Sell
11000
6.00
Sell
10500
19.95
Buy
10900
15.90
Buy
10600
32.35
9.90
90.10
10909.90
12.40
87.60
10587.60
Sell
11000
6.00
Sell
10500
19.95
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 16, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
414
417
423
426
431
AMBUJACEM
266
272
275
280
284
ASIANPAINT
1,172
1,188
1,198
1,214
1,224
AUROPHARMA
646
652
662
668
678
AXISBANK
552
556
560
565
569
BAJAJ-AUTO
3,135
3,151
3,170
3,185
3,204
BAJFINANCE
1,693
1,716
1,755
1,778
1,817
BPCL
481
484
489
492
497
BHARTIARTL
497
501
506
510
516
INFRATEL
363
367
373
376
382
BOSCHLTD
19,607
19,756
19,858
20,006
20,109
CIPLA
604
607
611
614
619
COALINDIA
301
303
307
309
313
DRREDDY
2,403
2,417
2,439
2,454
2,476
EICHERMOT
27,361
27,671
28,211
28,521
29,061
GAIL
478
484
493
499
508
HCLTECH
890
899
915
925
941
HDFCBANK
1,843
1,870
1,887
1,915
1,932
HDFC
1,737
1,804
1,845
1,913
1,954
HEROMOTOCO
3,561
3,595
3,647
3,681
3,734
HINDALCO
260
263
269
272
278
HINDPETRO
419
423
429
432
438
HINDUNILVR
1,357
1,362
1,369
1,374
1,381
IBULHSGFIN
1,201
1,213
1,232
1,245
1,264
ICICIBANK
316
323
327
333
337
IOC
386
388
392
395
399
INDUSINDBK
1,654
1,668
1,689
1,703
1,725
INFY
1,052
1,067
1,080
1,094
1,108
ITC
264
266
269
270
273
KOTAKBANK
1,012
1,025
1,033
1,046
1,054
LT
1,306
1,316
1,334
1,344
1,361
LUPIN
908
912
918
923
929
M&M
744
751
764
771
784
MARUTI
9,234
9,296
9,402
9,465
9,571
NTPC
170
171
173
175
177
ONGC
193
195
198
199
202
POWERGRID
193
196
198
201
203
RELIANCE
938
943
951
957
964
SBIN
299
301
303
305
307
SUNPHARMA
567
572
579
584
592
TCS
2,690
2,718
2,763
2,791
2,836
TATAMOTORS
425
429
434
438
443
TATASTEEL
761
772
783
794
805
TECHM
534
539
547
552
560
ULTRACEMCO
4,334
4,427
4,496
4,590
4,659
UPL
762
768
776
782
790
VEDANTA
334
337
340
343
347
WIPRO
307
311
318
322
328
YESBANK
330
333
338
341
347
ZEEL
589
598
604
613
619
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 16, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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