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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 15, 2019
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Sensex (
38
) / Nifty
(1
13
41
)
Towards the fag end of the last week, tensions over the Sino-US
trade war cooled off considerably and hence, the global markets
looked cheerful; hoping for some positive developments
hereafter. We too had a rub off effect of it and very much on
expected lines, continued northward trajectory towards the 11400
mark. In fact, we did spent some time beyond it; but all of a
sudden, massive selling triggered in last 45 minutes of trade and
before anyone could realise, we were off more than 100 points
from the high. Eventually, Nifty somehow managed to close
marginally in the positive territory.
Looking at the recent wild swings in indices (especially in Bank
Nifty), retail traders are finding it extremely difficult to trade as
there is no clear direction and to make it worse, market corrects
all of a sudden to catch traders on the wrong foot. As far as
immediate levels are concerned, 11300 followed by 11250
would be seen as immediate supports; whereas on the higher
side, it would be important for Nifty to spend at least one day
beyond 11400 to unfold further rally towards 11540 11600.
Meanwhile, it is necessary to stay light within this range and
should ideally look to trade within the band. However having
said that, we could see ample of opportunities apart from index
trades as so many individuals stocks are still providing better and
more importantly reliable trades.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11300 Resistance 1 – 11400
Support 2 – 11250 Resistance 2 – 11540
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
28
18
2
)
Bank Nifty Index too started on a positive note and the
momentum remained positive for the most part of the session.
However, during the last 45 minutes, the Index witnessed selloff
and gave away most of its gains. The Bank Index eventually
ended with gains of half a percent at 28182.
In the last few sessions, the Bank Nifty has witnessed volatile
moves within the broad range of 27560 - 28800 and traders
fraternity are finding it extremely difficult to understand the trend.
Going ahead, a trending move can only be seen on a range
break from the above-mentioned levels and till then we may
continue to see volatile moves within the range. Traders are
advised to keep positions light and keep proper risk management
for the stock-specific trades.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28000 Resistance 1 – 28560
Support 2 – 27560 Resistance 2 – 28850
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began yesterday’s session on a cheerful note and
saw a follow-up buying to surpass 11400 mark. For the
major part of the day, we witnessed decent strength
along with long formation in the futures segment;
however, in the final hour of trade, we saw a sudden
sell-off to cut major part of the gains.Eventually, Nifty
concluded the session with gains of merely 36 points.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 896cr. In index futures, they bought worth
Rs. 975 crores with fall in open interest, indicating short
covering took place for the second consecutive session.
In F&O segment, we saw decent short-coveringin both
Nifty as well as BankNifty recently. Since the past two
sessions, stronger hands have been buying equities
and have been covering their shorts in the index futures
segment; which is indeed a good indication from their
end. At present,the highest open interest concentration
has also shifted higher from 11200 to11300 puts.
Considering the above F&O data, we maintain our
optimistic stance on the market and would advise
traders to use such decline to add-on fresh longs.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.74%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 3.00% as
market closed at 11341.15 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a discount of 4.85
points against a premium of 6.65 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
42.50 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 17.14 to 17.43.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.14 to 1.18.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are DISHTV, IDEA, GMRINFRA, BOSCHLTD and
EXIDEIND.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CENTURYTEX 1594800 13.11 381.45 -3.31
SRF 935000 11.24 2612.60 -3.18
UBL 1645700 9.40 1276.35 0.84
TATAMOTORS 68388000 8.10 127.85 5.30
IGL 3704250 7.76 376.40 0.95
BERGEPAINT 7128000 7.14 477.10 2.56
RBLBANK 17191200 5.70 258.90 -2.83
TORNTPHARM 507000 5.63 1697.95 2.76
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
STAR 2416800 -11.82 338.50 5.66
CANBK 11486000 -7.67 179.20 -0.11
CIPLA 12879000 -7.62 440.90 -0.07
CONCOR 4728075 -6.81 578.35 2.25
RECLTD 26100000 -5.70 124.95 1.87
CESC 1115200 -5.68 769.50 1.62
TATASTEEL 28585462 -5.16 344.85 1.41
DLF 43439200 -4.90 154.85 6.17
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.18 0.85
BANKNIFTY 0.87 0.80
RELIANCE 0.87 0.61
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.60
INFY 0.69 0.49
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ADANIENT 53.94
STAR 55.01
INFY 38.37
ONGC 50.85
BEL 41.32
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
113
41.15
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
1
4
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4148.98 3174.19 974.79
161917 12835.10 (2.33)
INDEX
OPTIONS
174906.35 174314.93 591.42
735126 57559.94 5.62
STOCK
FUTURES
11827.62 11575.65 251.97
1547135 88773.95 (0.20)
STOCK
OPTIONS
4541.50 4642.74 (101.24) 83316 4549.13 3.72
Total 195424.45
193707.51
1716.94
2527494
163718.12
1.41
Turnover on
October
1
4
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
396999 26991.91 -22.19
INDEX
OPTIONS
10935970 746938.12 -8.56
STOCK
FUTURES
772887 40753.46 -18.82
STOCK
OPTIONS
661874 38212.27 -20.12
TOTAL 1,27,67,730
852895.76 -10.18
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11300 179.40
47.25 52.75 11347.25
Sell 11400 132.15
Buy 11300 179.40
90.30 109.70 11390.30
Sell 11500 89.10
Buy 11400 132.15
43.05 56.95 11443.05
Sell 11500 89.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11300 145.40
37.65 62.35 11262.35
Sell 11200 107.75
Buy 11300 145.40
65.55 134.45 11234.45
Sell 11100 79.85
Buy 11200 107.75
27.90 72.10 11172.10
Sell 11100 79.85
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels fo
r Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 400 404
408 412 417
ASIANPAINT 1,775 1,787
1,797 1,808 1,818
AXISBANK 663 673
684 694 704
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,853 2,906
2,940 2,993 3,027
BAJFINANCE 3,761 3,822
3,914 3,975 4,067
BAJAJFINSV 7,927 8,005
8,129 8,207 8,332
BPCL 474 480
489 496 505
BHARTIARTL 374 384
390 400 407
INFRATEL 253 256
259 262 265
BRITANNIA 3,046 3,078
3,101 3,133 3,156
CIPLA 427 434
440 447 453
COALINDIA 187 188
190 191 192
DRREDDY 2,590 2,621
2,652 2,683 2,713
EICHERMOT 17,916 18,122
18,286 18,492 18,656
GAIL 122 124
126 128 130
GRASIM 678 688
698 708 718
HCLTECH 1,061 1,074
1,087 1,100 1,113
HDFCBANK 1,185 1,195
1,207 1,217 1,230
HDFC 1,984 1,999
2,016 2,031 2,047
HEROMOTOCO 2,547 2,578
2,603 2,634 2,660
HINDALCO 185 187
189 191 193
HINDUNILVR 1,992 2,003
2,017 2,028 2,043
ICICIBANK 420 424
430 435 441
IOC 142 143
145 147 149
INDUSINDBK 1,211 1,231
1,248 1,268 1,285
INFY 771 778
788 795 805
ITC 241 243
245 246 248
JSW STEEL 215 218
222 225 228
KOTAKBANK 1,558 1,572
1,590 1,604 1,623
LT 1,406 1,415
1,427 1,436 1,449
M&M 547 558
565 576 583
MARUTI 6,619 6,720
6,797 6,898 6,976
NESTLEIND 13,846 14,008
14,111 14,273 14,376
NTPC 115 117
117 119 119
ONGC 126 131
134 138 141
POWERGRID 195 197
199 201 204
RELIANCE 1,344 1,351
1,358 1,365 1,372
SBIN 251 253
256 259 262
SUNPHARMA 382 388
394 400 406
TCS 1,943 1,982
2,007 2,047 2,072
TATAMOTORS 119 124
127 131 134
TATASTEEL 337 341
347 351 357
TECHM 711 716
722 727 733
TITAN 1,222 1,236
1,247 1,260 1,271
ULTRACEMCO 3,987 4,079
4,143 4,234 4,299
UPL 560 573
581 595 603
VEDANTA 143 146
149 151 155
WIPRO 235 239
242 246 249
YESBANK 37 39
40 41 43
ZEEL 232 238
243 248 253
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.ang
elbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]elbroking.com
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