Technical & Derivatives Report
October 15, 2018
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (34734) / Nifty (10472)
During the last week, our markets defending the key support level
of 10200 on a closing basis was certainly a remarkable
achievement. It was clearly an indication that the sellers got
exhausted and they did not have further strength to react to the
global hiccups. Hence, we had a gap up opening on the
concluding day of the week with a good bump up and in fact, the
momentum accelerated as the day progressed. In the course of
action, we were back to Wednesday’s highs by ending the week
on a cheerful note.
Finally, the recent losing streak came to an end as we not only
managed to defend the critical support level of 10200 but also
ended the week with a good hope of further recovery in this
week. Last week, we had highlighted few notable observations
and all those key technical evidences have proved their
significance. Despite unfavorable global cues, our markets
Momentum traders are advised to ride this relief move with strict
showed tremendous resilience after correcting 78.6% of the entire
stop losses. It would be a prudent strategy to focus on midcap
up move from 9951.90 to 11760.20. Also, this key support zone
universe, which has taken a u-turn from important supports and
coincided with the weekly 89 EMA and thus, the relief was very
is now likely to witness further relief. But having said that; we
much on cards. Now, the question is, are we done with the
would like to give a piece of advice to momentum traders, it’s
correction or this is just a temporary relief rally? In our sense, it
better to adopt a stock centric approach and look to take timely
would be too early to judge this as a completion of the corrective
profits off the table.
phase. But, one thing we are convinced with is, we are heading
for further bounce back in this week. As far as levels are
concerned, we expect the natural extension to be around 10650
Key Levels
- 10750and then one need to reassess the situation after meeting
Support 1 - 10322
Resistance 1 -
10547
these probable junctions. On the downside, 10322 followed
Support 2 - 10234
Resistance 2 -
10650
by 10187 would be seen as key support levels.
Nifty Bank Outlook - (25396)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The week went by witnessed very high volatility led by the sharp
fall in global markets. However, the end was quite good as the
Nifty Bank index reclaimed the positive momentum and ended the
week with gains of almost 4 percent compared to its previous
week's closing.
The Nifty Bank index has formed a support based around its
weekly 89 EMA and the pullback was seen when momentum
readings on the daily chart were in oversold zone around the
mentioned support. During such pullbacks, the indices usually
retrace some of the previous correctives moves. Traders should
not be surprised with the velocity of the move the corrections in
the recent past were sharp as well. The resistance is placed
around 25525 and a crossover above the same should lead the
index towards 25820 which is the 38.2% retracement level. On
the flipside, 24975 followed by 24490 will be seen as key
supports.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 24975
Resistance 1 -
25525
Support 2 - 24490
Resistance 2 -
25820
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 15, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.88%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.11%
as market closed at 10472.50 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 30.70
points against a premium of 17.40 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
87.70 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 20.54 to 18.62.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.08 to 1.21.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are SUZLON, HCC, JPASSOCIAT, MRPL and
GSFC.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
of Rs. 1322 crores. At the same time, they bought worth
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
Rs. 529 crores in index futures with fall in open interest,
NIITTECH
1841250
27.40
1044.95
-0.82
indicating short covering took place in previous trading
KTKBANK
19593000
18.38
98.30
-0.56
session.
SRF
623000
10.27
1773.10
3.30
In options front, they bought of Rs. 1261 crores with rise
TCS
10031500
9.84
1918.30
-3.29
in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are
HCLTECH
8404200
9.01
985.15
-2.33
considered, except for some fresh build-up in 10700 call
ICICIPRULI
4377100
8.93
318.40
-0.28
options, we hardly saw any strike adding positions.
COALINDIA
21021000
8.10
278.60
4.42
However, decent unwinding was witnessed in
CHENNPETRO
1096500
7.18
258.35
4.68
10200-10600 call strikes. On the flip side,
10000-10400 puts added good amount of positions.
Maximum open interest for October series now stood at
OI Losers
11000 followed by 10800 call and in put options is
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
firmly placed in 10000 strike.
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
JUSTDIAL
2536800
-8.72
484.70
8.41
It was indeed a volatile week for our market as we saw
JINDALSTEL
28464750
-7.48
178.40
7.17
index correcting below 10200 on Monday but saw
decent recovery towards 10500. On Thursday, we had a
KSCL
1125000
-6.37
515.65
3.22
massive gap down opening below 10200 mark, this was
INFRATEL
5914300
-5.87
265.55
2.03
again bought into to eventually conclude above 10400.
BPCL
16077600
-5.50
288.90
3.67
At present, we expect extension of recent upmove
MARUTI
2786775
-5.25
7287.20
6.01
towards 10600-10650 mark; thus, traders are advised
APOLLOTYRE
10923000
-5.23
217.05
5.24
trading with the positive bias for next week.
IGL
3643750
-5.09
241.70
5.54
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
CENTURYTEX
60.67
NIFTY
1.21
0.83
MGL
31.16
BANKNIFTY
1.14
0.77
TATAPOWER
75.95
RELIANCE
0.55
0.50
DCBBANK
56.62
ICICIBANK
0.57
0.42
AMBUJACEM
45.73
INFY
0.95
0.78
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 15, 2018
FII Statistics for October 12, 2018
Turnover on October 12, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
4885.65
4356.99
528.65
281097
22235.90
(1.39)
292753
25561.03
-32.75
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
70586.41
69325.66
1260.75
980065
79867.09
2.70
5498623
502517.89
-72.71
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
15725.44
15200.54
524.90
1293603
84737.64
(0.27)
STOCK
FUTURES
881841
56141.15
-15.34
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
7805.88
8025.15
(219.27)
130146
8553.57
7.95
701934
50775.03
5.13
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
99003.38
96908.33
2095.05
2684911
195394.20
1.05
TOTAL
7375151
634995.10
-68.16
Nifty Spot = 10472.50
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10500
127.50
Buy
10500
139.45
44.55
55.45
10544.55
38.10
61.90
10461.90
Sell
10600
82.95
Sell
10400
101.35
Buy
10500
127.50
Buy
10500
139.45
77.10
122.90
10577.10
66.55
133.45
10433.45
Sell
10700
50.40
Sell
10300
72.90
Buy
10600
82.95
Buy
10400
101.35
32.55
67.45
10632.55
28.45
71.55
10371.55
Sell
10700
50.40
Sell
10300
72.90
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 15, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
312
317
323
328
334
ASIANPAINT
1,222
1,241
1,254
1,273
1,286
AXISBANK
568
576
589
598
611
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,482
2,552
2,601
2,671
2,720
BAJFINANCE
2,185
2,236
2,278
2,329
2,371
BAJAJFINSV
5,571
5,692
5,801
5,922
6,031
BPCL
273
281
288
296
304
BHARTIARTL
281
286
289
294
297
INFRATEL
254
260
264
269
273
CIPLA
606
615
621
629
636
COALINDIA
264
271
276
283
287
DRREDDY
2,399
2,425
2,458
2,483
2,516
EICHERMOT
21,837
22,870
23,535
24,568
25,233
GAIL
347
353
357
363
367
GRASIM
870
882
892
904
914
HCLTECH
956
971
989
1,003
1,021
HDFCBANK
1,919
1,950
1,974
2,005
2,029
HDFC
1,675
1,703
1,722
1,750
1,769
HEROMOTOCO
2,838
2,866
2,903
2,931
2,968
HINDALCO
214
220
224
231
234
HINDPETRO
209
214
218
223
227
HINDUNILVR
1,525
1,547
1,562
1,585
1,600
IBULHSGFIN
899
915
929
945
959
ICICIBANK
308
314
319
325
330
IOC
131
132
135
136
138
INDUSINDBK
1,586
1,619
1,639
1,673
1,693
INFY
652
666
675
688
697
ITC
263
269
273
279
284
JSW STEEL
357
368
375
386
393
KOTAKBANK
1,103
1,135
1,154
1,186
1,205
LT
1,207
1,221
1,233
1,247
1,259
M&M
720
744
760
784
800
MARUTI
6,812
7,049
7,188
7,425
7,564
NTPC
162
163
164
165
167
ONGC
152
155
157
159
161
POWERGRID
184
186
188
190
192
RELIANCE
1,092
1,109
1,119
1,136
1,146
SBIN
258
261
264
267
271
SUNPHARMA
575
583
590
598
605
TCS
1,858
1,888
1,933
1,963
2,008
TATAMOTORS
179
181
185
187
191
TATASTEEL
550
563
571
584
592
TECHM
680
687
695
702
709
TITAN
765
785
797
818
830
ULTRACEMCO
3,662
3,729
3,772
3,838
3,882
UPL
598
613
624
639
650
VEDANTA
208
211
214
217
220
WIPRO
305
311
315
321
326
YESBANK
239
243
248
252
258
ZEEL
454
460
470
477
487
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 15, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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