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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (21392)
Bank Nifty as well started on a negative note and with sustained
sell-off throughout the session ended a with loss of 3.16% at
21392.
In our yesterday's report, we had mentioned a breakdown in Bank
Nifty from the Rising Wedge support and the impact of the same
was seen in yesterday's session. Now the momentum is on the
bearish side however the bank index is now hovering around the
200SMA on the hourly chart which has previously acted as strong
support and with oscillators in oversold territory on hourly charts
a bounce-back cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, immediate
resistance on a bounce-back is placed at 21650 - 21830 levels
whereas on the flip side support is placed around 21150 - 21000
in case of continuation of sell-off. Traders are advised to keep
positions light and be agile in-stock selection from the basket.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21150 Resistance 1 – 21650
Support 2 – 21000 Resistance 2 – 21830
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (36033) / Nifty (10607)
Yesterday's nervous start was more to do with the overnight
roller-coaster ride in US markets. They plunged severely from
higher levels and hence, we reacted with a weak start which was
then followed by a sustained correction throughout the
remaining part of the day. The selling pressure was so strong as
any minor attempt of a rebound was getting sold into. Eventually
we marked our weakest trading session in recent weeks by
shedding nearly a couple of percent.
Since last few days, we have been advocating staying light in the
range of 10700-11000; but honestly we didn't expect such profit
booking immediately. Rather we expected a possibility of Nifty
surpassing the 10850 mark and then heading towards 11000 first.
Very much in line with this, on Monday we started the session
above 10850 but unfortunately, the banking space took a back
seat, which resulted in some profit booking at higher levels. This
weakness augmented yesterday and hence, we came off sharply
to test 10600. Now, Nifty has slipped below the key support of
10670, which is not a good sign for the bulls. In case of further
weakness, we may see this correction getting extended towards
10550 - 10500. On the flipside, 10650 - 10700 has now become
an immediate resistance zone. If index has to regain any strength,
it needs to surpass these barriers soon.
.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Hourly Chart
With a broader view, we still do not consider this as a complete trend
reversal, rather would construe it as a running correction within the
uptrend. However, we cannot become too complacent and hence,
we would keep a regular tab of the overall development for next
couple of days.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10550 Resistance 1 – 10650
Support 2 – 10500 Resistance 2 – 10700
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10800
10900
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
7/1 7/2 7/3 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/13 7/14
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
Following the weakness in the global cues, our markets
started with a gap down opening and with sustained
selling ended with loss of 1.81% tad above 10600
levels.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1566 crores. In index futures, they sold
worth 1645 crores with increase in open interest
indicating short formation and some long unwinding in
yesterday’s fall
.
Indices corrected in yesterday's session with long
unwinding seen in Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. FII's were
net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of 1566
crores which is significant. Also, they have shorted
aggressively in the index futures segment due to which
their 'Long Short Ratio' has now plunged to 45 percent.
In options segment, 10700 and 10800 call options
added good open interest indicating resistances
whereas 10700 put option saw unwinding as the index
breached that support. The above data is certainly not
encouraging and index could witness selling on
any pullback moves. The immediate support is now
placed around 10500 whereas resistance is seen
around 10600-10700
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 4.28%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 6.09%
as market closed at 10607.35 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a premium of 6.5 point
against a premium of 4.85 point in last trading session.
The August series closed at a premium of 19.3 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 25.25 to 26.64
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.44 to 1.14.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are GLENMARK, ESCORTS, SAIL, IDEA, AND
BANDHANBNK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MINDTREE 2133600 23.24 978.15 -3.60
RAMCOCEM 1348100 22.38 659.30 -1.61
CANBK 14205000 13.87 100.90 -2.42
RBLBANK 24042200 10.94 165.00 -7.77
BAJAJFINSV 797000 9.52 6243.35 -3.21
SUNTV 6393000 9.20 391.00 0.13
INDIGO 3057000 8.65 955.30 -5.91
ZEEL 20535000 8.10 166.30 -4.40
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS 2757700 -16.74 1079.95 -3.77
ACC 2063000 -12.29 1294.10 -3.88
MGL 1167600 -9.57 989.50 1.72
EQUITAS 11635600 -9.14 56.95 -2.40
IBULHSGFIN 11798600 -8.75 223.45 -6.44
JUSTDIAL 1227800 -8.07 373.55 0.88
SAIL 46911000 -7.67 34.20 -4.04
TECHM 15451200 -7.45 598.30 -0.35
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.14 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.56 0.98
RELIANCE 0.62 0.43
ICICIBANK 0.45 0.52
INFY 0.78 0.62
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BHEL 72.32
INDIGO 55.37
ACC 41.97
BOSCHLTD 51.29
POWERGRID 38.95
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10607.4
FII Statistics for July 14, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4403.32
6048.75
(1645.43) 123985
8799.15
17.94
INDEX
OPTIONS
258620.25
258564.43
55.82
798673
56502.44
5.81
STOCK
FUTURES
13173.64
14591.48
(1417.84) 1312827
87302.98
(1.32)
STOCK
OPTIONS
4349.02
4525.85
(176.83) 115998
7661.01
4.82
Total 280546.23
283730.51
(3184.28) 2351483
160265.58
2.19
Turnover on July 14, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,52,808 35825.67 24.78
Index Options
2,25,28,503
13,35,682.78
32.13
Stock Futures 7,84,848 54925.09 9.54
Stock Options
10,84,918
83845.17 7.39
Total 2,49,51,077
15,10,278.71
-98.71
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10600 220.10
50.65 49.35 10650.65
Sell 10700 169.45
Buy 10600 220.10
92.50 107.50 10692.50
Sell 10800 127.60
Buy 10700 169.45
41.85 58.15 10741.85
Sell 10800 127.60
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10600 204.60
42.70 57.30 10557.30
Sell 10500 161.90
Buy 10600 204.60
76.45 123.55 10523.55
Sell 10400 128.15
Buy 10500 161.90
33.75 66.25 10466.25
Sell 10400 128.15
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
311
316
325
329
338
ASIANPAINT 1,660 1,674
1,696
1,710
1,732
AXISBANK 4
03
410
423
431
443
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,823 2,861
2,885
2,924
2,948
BAJFINANCE 3,080 3,136
3,178
3,233
3,275
BAJAJFINSV 6,056 6,150
6,305
6,399
6,554
BPCL
363
369
377
382
391
BHARTIARTL
570
580
588
598
606
INFRATEL
203
206
211
214
218
BRITANNIA 3,686 3,711
3,753
3,778
3,820
CIPLA
623
628
636
640
649
COALINDIA
126
127
129
130
131
DRREDDY 3,829 3,906
3,951
4,028
4,073
EICHERMOT 18,103
18,477
19,068
19,442
20,033
GAIL
96
98
100
101
104
GRASIM
581
589
601
609
621
HCLTECH
572
582
598
607
623
HDFCBANK 1,040 1,050
1,059
1,069
1,078
HDFC 1,741 1,766
1,796
1,821
1,851
HEROMOTOCO
2,555
2,583
2,633
2,661
2,710
HINDALCO
158
161
165
168
172
HINDUNILVR 2,200 2,218
2,244
2,261
2,287
ICICIBANK
334
340
346
3
52
358
IOC
85
86
87
88
89
INDUSINDBK
487
499
517
529
547
INFY
765
774
790
799
815
ITC
189
193
196
199
203
JSW STEEL
188
191
195
198
201
KOTAKBANK 1,270 1,284
1,308
1,322
1,346
LT
889
901
918
930
947
M&M
530
537
546
553
562
MARUTI 5,618 5,695
5,827
5,904
6,036
NESTLEIND 16,691
16,793
16,954
17,057
17,217
NTPC
86
87
88
89
91
ONGC
76
77
78
78
80
POWERGRID
159
161
165
167
171
RELIANCE 1,861 1,889
1,915
1,943
1,970
SHREECEM 21,379
21,733
22,064
22,417
22,748
SBIN
180
183
188
191
195
SUNPHARMA
482
487
495
501
509
TCS 2,118 2,145
2,192
2,219
2,266
TATAMOTORS
102
104
106
107
109
TATASTEEL
330
333
336
340
342
TECHM
587
593
598
604
609
TITAN
946
960
969
983
992
ULTRACEMCO 3,702 3,736
3,779
3,813
3,855
UPL
422
430
437
445
452
VEDANTA
106
108
110
111
113
WIPRO
219
222
227
230
235
ZEEL
161
164
168
171
175
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2020
*
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com