Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2019
Sensex (38736) / Nifty (11552)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Post the Budget announcement, market participants looked
disappointed, which triggered this massive sell off, especially in
some of the marquee outperformers. To make it worse, we had a
decent gap down on Monday which accelerated as the day
progressed. Eventually, Monday’s session turned out to be the
weakest day of the current calendar year. Fortunately, this
mayhem got arrested on the following day and then we witnessed
a mild recovery throughout the remaining part of the week to
eventually conclude with a cut over a couple of percent.
Last week’s low of 11461 holds lot of significance because it
coincides with multiple technical evidences such as, (i)
61.8%
retracement of recent rally (11108 - 12103), (ii) Trend line
joining previous lows and (iii) The vicinity of the bullish gap
At present, traders are advised to stay light and avoid taking
formed after exit poll numbers. For a time being, market has
any undue risks. As mentioned in the above section, any
respected this crucial junction but going ahead, it would be
existing longs should be exited if index breaches key support of
important to see how index behaves around it. In case of a
11460 - 11430 convincingly. On the sectoral front, there were
breakdown below 11460 - 11430, the selloff is likely to escalate
some notable moves seen in the Auto and Metal spaces
to test lower levels 11250 - 11230 or even a move towards May
towards the latter half of the week. So if market manages to
lows (11108) cannot be ruled out. So till the time we are above it,
hold its support, we would see sharp pull backs in these
there is still a final ray of hope for the bulls. However, on the
names. Also, midcap index had an encouraging move despite
upside, previous support of 11640 is now acting as a sturdy wall.
the benchmark tumbled in the final hour. Do watch out for this
Hence, if index has to regain any strength, it needs to
universe as well.
convincingly surpass this hurdle of 11640 - 11700. For a time
being, 11430 - 11640 would be seen as a crucial range for the
Key Levels
index.
Support 1 - 11460
Resistance 1 -
11600
Support 2 - 11430
Resistance 2 -
11640
Nifty Bank Outlook - (30587)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
After a sharp correction at the start of the week, the Nifty Bank
index consolidated in a range for rest of the session and ended
the week with a loss of 2.78 percent over the previous week's
close. A sharp down move followed by a consolidation phase has
led to formation of a 'Bearish Flag' pattern in the Nifty Bank index
on the daily chart. The mentioned pattern is a bearish
continuation pattern and a breakdown below 30548 (neckline of
the pattern) could provide upper hand to the bears in the coming
week. If the mentioned support is broken, then the index could
correct towards its immediate support zone of 30450-30350.
Although the mentioned pattern hints at probability of further cuts,
we will re-access the same when the index approaches this range.
On the flipside, Friday's high which coincide with the '20 DEMA' at
30870 needs to be taken out to negate this bearish pattern.
Hence, traders are advised to stay light on positions and be
vigilant on the above mentioned scenarios.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 30450
Resistance 1 -
30800
Support 2 - 30350
Resistance 2 -
30870
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2019
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.76%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.44%
as market closed at 11552.50 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 8.15 points
against a discount of 0.85 points in last trading session.
The August series closed at a premium of 47.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 12.47 to 11.99.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.03 to 1.15.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NATIONALUM. DISHTV, YESBANK
and BANKINDIA.
Views
OI Gainers
Post Friday’s sharp fall, we started-off the week with a
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
downside gap and witnessed follow-up selling to drag
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
index towards 11450 mark. However, 11450-11500
MFSL
2778000
27.34
418.50
2.58
acted as support zone and we saw some short covering
AMARAJABAT
1334900
16.42
651.05
-0.48
move in next 2-3 session to reclaim 11600. On Friday,
OIL
8303757
11.00
174.20
-0.14
index surpassed 11600 mark but couldn’t sustain at
IOC
48167000
9.97
146.85
-0.75
higher levels as we saw sharp fall in final hour to
PFC
40306200
9.10
124.70
-1.35
conclude the week 2% lower.
WIPRO
31907200
8.05
258.95
-2.86
NIITTECH
1528500
7.72
1347.45
2.22
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the
PVR
827600
7.15
1747.50
0.78
tune of Rs. 850 cr. In index futures segment, they
bought of Rs. 171 cr. with some rise in OI, indicating
some fresh long formation on Friday’s session.
OI Losers
In index futures segment, we saw mixed activity
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
throughout the week. At present, 11450-11500 is an
NATIONALUM
42250000
-6.07
47.40
1.71
immediate support; whereas, 11600-11650 shall act
TATASTEEL
31391807
-4.98
472.90
2.21
as a hurdle. Until index trades between the above
CONCOR
2475792
-4.23
557.90
0.28
mentioned range, traders are advised to stay light in
DISHTV
104258000
-4.07
31.10
2.46
index and prefer trading in individual counters.
TATAELXSI
1560600
-3.84
849.50
0.78
BANKINDIA
26316000
-3.84
87.05
0.58
BAJAJFINSV
847250
-3.65
7725.70
0.60
BSOFT
3340500
-3.11
74.60
-0.07
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
WIPRO
28.77
NIFTY
1.15
0.86
ASIANPAINT
21.53
BANKNIFTY
0.83
0.90
MCDOWELL-N
36.03
RELIANCE
0.55
0.51
APOLLOHOSP
36.59
ICICIBANK
0.52
0.69
NIITTECH
23.23
INFY
0.96
0.84
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2019
FII Statistics for July 12, 2019
Turnover on July 12, 2019
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
2810.31
2639.37
170.94
246755
20067.81
0.89
250085
18531.68
9.59
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
140532.49
139830.14
702.36
545037
43779.97
8.25
8911363
640432.58
-65.26
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
10823.52
10527.50
296.02
1380095
86875.68
0.87
STOCK
FUTURES
731009
46282.88
10.11
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
5690.08
5699.82
(9.74)
67375
4041.85
4.95
787558
51438.34
23.86
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
159856.41
158696.83
1159.58
2239262
154765.31
2.70
TOTAL
10680015
756685.48
-50.76
Nifty Spot = 11552.50
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
11600
65.05
Buy
11600
123.10
32.40
67.60
11632.40
49.15
50.85
11550.85
Sell
11700
32.65
Sell
11500
73.95
Buy
11600
65.05
Buy
11600
123.10
49.90
150.10
11649.90
81.40
118.60
11518.60
Sell
11800
15.15
Sell
11400
41.70
Buy
11700
32.65
Buy
11500
73.95
17.50
82.50
11717.50
32.25
67.75
11467.75
Sell
11800
15.15
Sell
11400
41.70
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2019
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
405
410
415
420
425
ASIANPAINT
1,308
1,335
1,352
1,379
1,396
AXISBANK
741
748
758
766
776
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,664
2,693
2,723
2,752
2,781
BAJFINANCE
3,301
3,339
3,405
3,443
3,509
BAJAJFINSV
7,569
7,647
7,714
7,792
7,858
BPCL
339
342
349
352
358
BHARTIARTL
350
353
357
360
364
INFRATEL
258
260
264
267
271
BRITANNIA
2,728
2,754
2,777
2,803
2,826
CIPLA
538
547
557
566
576
COALINDIA
225
228
232
235
239
DRREDDY
2,550
2,589
2,625
2,664
2,700
EICHERMOT
18,732
18,844
18,972
19,084
19,212
GAIL
143
145
148
150
153
GRASIM
902
909
918
926
935
HCLTECH
1,000
1,012
1,021
1,033
1,042
HDFCBANK
2,366
2,380
2,399
2,413
2,432
HDFC
2,232
2,245
2,264
2,276
2,295
HEROMOTOCO
2,430
2,500
2,542
2,612
2,654
HINDALCO
195
197
199
201
203
HINDUNILVR
1,690
1,702
1,720
1,732
1,750
IBULHSGFIN
651
658
669
677
687
ICICIBANK
419
423
428
432
437
IOC
143
145
146
148
150
INDUSINDBK
1,453
1,481
1,522
1,550
1,591
INFY
715
721
726
732
737
ITC
272
273
275
277
278
JSW STEEL
258
263
267
272
276
KOTAKBANK
1,466
1,475
1,485
1,493
1,503
LT
1,439
1,453
1,476
1,490
1,513
M&M
624
628
632
636
641
MARUTI
5,866
5,919
6,004
6,057
6,143
NTPC
123
125
129
131
135
ONGC
145
147
150
153
156
POWERGRID
202
204
207
210
212
RELIANCE
1,264
1,272
1,286
1,294
1,308
SBIN
359
361
364
366
369
SUNPHARMA
391
400
406
414
420
TCS
2,080
2,094
2,107
2,121
2,133
TATAMOTORS
150
155
159
163
168
TATASTEEL
452
462
471
481
490
TECHM
657
662
667
671
677
TITAN
1,068
1,084
1,107
1,123
1,146
ULTRACEMCO
4,469
4,518
4,568
4,616
4,667
UPL
615
622
635
642
655
VEDANTA
160
164
166
170
173
WIPRO
251
255
262
266
272
YESBANK
90
92
94
95
97
ZEEL
342
346
352
356
362
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 15, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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