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Technical & Derivatives Report
June
15, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (20655)
During the last week, the bank index remained under pressure for
the major part. However, on Friday, the bank nifty after a gap down
opening and testing the levels of 19500 bounced back sharply to
eventually end with a loss of 1.8% against the previous week close
at 20655. As mentioned above, we remained hopeful and
expected buying to emerge at lower levels citing the positive
crossover in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on the weekly chart.
Going forward, we continue to see dips getting bought into and
banking stocks likely to outperform. The key highlight for the past
week has been the outperformance from the mid-size private
banks which rallied 8 - 10% on a day with ease. Traders are advised
to continue to focus on such counters which are likely to give
outperforming opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 20100 Resistance 1 – 21150
Support 2 – 19800 Resistance 2 – 21375
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
nsex
(
33781)
/ Nifty
(
9973
)
During the last week, our markets started proceedings with a
good bump up on Monday, owing to favorable global cues.
However, this ecstasy was short lived as we witnessed a gradual
profit booking thereafter. Until Thursday’s first half, index kept
gyrating in a very slender range but post the deferment of
Supreme Court’s verdict with respect to AGR dues, markets joined
hands with global peers. And since they were trading deeply in
red, the Nifty breached the support of 10000. In fact, things
worsened when US markets plunged more than 5% on Thursday.
This resulted in a massive gap down opening in our markets on
Friday. Fortunately, our markets saw a v-shaped recovery
throughout the remaining part to conclude the day marginally in
the green and thereby restricting weekly losses to a couple of
percent.
Barring last two sessions, our market was undergoing a
consolidation phase, but the range widened a bit towards the fag
end. Broadly speaking, in the midst of all this, our markets retraced
recent up move and managed to reclaim the crucial support of
9900 in a matter of a few trading hours. If you refer to our recent
articles, for us, the trend changing level was 9900 and although it
was breached intraday, we will give more weightage for closing
levels. Nifty has not only reclaimed it on a daily basis but with
Friday’s close, it has been defended on a weekly basis as well.
Hence, we continue to remain upbeat and construe this decline as
a retracement of the recent up move, which was very much
needed to provide the strength for the next leg of the rally. As far
as supports are concerned, 9900 continue to be seen as key
support on closing basis. But with Friday’s move, we can mention
a slightly bigger support zone of 9900 9544 for the coming
week.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Weekly Chart
On the flipside, we expect Nifty to again go back to recent highs of
10150 10300 or may even head towards 10600 10800 levels.
One of the key rationales behind this hypothesis is the overall
positioning of the Bank Nifty. Couple of weeks back, we could see
confirmation of a positive crossover in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on the
weekly chart. Historically it's proven that when this kind of crossover
happens in this oscillator, it has the tendency to give bigger moves
and hence, this observation is adding conviction to our optimistic
stance. Also, it would be unfair not to throw some light on the
‘Midcap’ index, which has given a remarkable move on Friday and
thereby indicates a strong move in the offing.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 9900 Resistance 1 – 10075
Support 2 – 9830 Resistance 2 – 10150
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Nifty Vs OI
9600
9700
9800
9900
10000
10100
10200
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
Nifty started trading for the week on a positive note
around 10300, but we witnessed a gradual decline
during the week to breach the 10000 mark. On the last
trading session of the week, Nifty opened gap down
around 9550 due to negative global cues, but it
recovered to erase all the day’s losses and ended the
week at 9973.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1311 crores. In index futures, they sold worth
502 crores with increase in open interest indicating
short formations on Friday.
FII’s turned net sellers in cash segment in last three
sessions while they were sellers in the index futures
segment too. The weekly options data hints a support
at 9500 and resistance at 10000 mark. At the fag end
of the week, we saw a good momentum in the market
post the gap down opening. A move above 10000
could then lead to some unwinding by the call writers
which could propel the indices higher. Hence, traders
are advised to trade with a positive bias and avoid
taking contra trades.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.00%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 14.82%
as market closed at 9972.90 levels.
The Nifty June future closed with a discount of 17.55
point against a premium of 7.45 point in last trading
session. The July series closed at a discount of 26.5 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 29.66 to 30.82
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.04
to 1.47.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JINDALSTEL, IDEA, GMRINFRA, ESCORTS and
ADANIPOWER.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 318234000 51.36 10.15 8.51
SBILIFE 6164250 27.05 750.45 1.26
HDFCLIFE 18823800 19.61 502.30 0.16
CHOLAFIN 7622500 18.27 160.05 6.22
NCC 26049000 17.88 30.55 4.07
M&M 17073400 16.20 508.45 7.14
HINDPETRO 17071500 11.81 210.85 2.73
CADILAHC 7453600 10.61 374.25 1.24
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS 2428800 -20.23 977.55 6.87
JINDALSTEL 15000000 -8.56 141.65 2.73
LICHSGFIN 7909000 -7.74 281.15 3.42
GODREJPROP 394550 -7.47 835.80 2.19
MGL 1183800 -6.63 1074.20 3.41
RAMCOCEM 894500 -6.36 625.10 1.70
SRF 563250 -5.69 3683.00 1.62
APOLLOTYRE 9735000 -5.66 106.65 1.38
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.47 0.87
BANKNIFTY 0.96 0.76
RELIANCE 0.75 0.54
ICICIBANK 0.64 0.74
INFY 0.47 0.49
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
M&M 54.31
SHREECEM 48.45
ESCORTS 68.49
INFRATEL 80.35
SRTRANSFIN 88.00
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 15, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (June Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
9972.90
FII Statistics for June 12, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
8267.34
8769.34
(502.00) 129915
8580.18
3.05
INDEX
OPTIONS
194768.57
195435.04
(666.47) 771664
5187963.18
9.43
STOCK
FUTURES
18197.77
19037.45
(839.68) 1530082
81933.08
1.21
STOCK
OPTIONS
5912.21
5878.62
33.59
101014
5637.89
1.93
Total 227145.89
229120.45
(1974.56) 2532675
5284114.33
3.71
Turnover on June 12, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 8,80,167 46862.61 31.45
Index Options 1,64,53,683
9,50,138.47 -68.44
Stock Futures 11,57,150 58446.52 7.32
Stock Options 13,59,225 74512.95 17.43
Total 1,98,50,225
11,29,960.55 -64.29
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9900 220.60
48.85 51.15 9948.85
Sell 10000 171.75
Buy 9900 220.60
90.10 109.90 9990.10
Sell 10100 130.50
Buy 10000 171.75
41.25 58.75 10041.25
Sell 10100 130.50
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9900 228.80
45.05 54.95 9854.95
Sell 9800 183.75
Buy 9900 228.80
81.70 118.30 9818.30
Sell 9700 147.10
Buy 9800 183.75
36.65 63.35 9763.35
Sell 9700 147.10
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
320
333
340
353
360
ASIANPAINT 1,554 1,596
1,619
1,661
1,685
AXISBANK
380
394
403
417
427
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,542 2,662
2,730
2,851
2,919
BAJFINANCE 2,102 2,276
2,373
2,547
2,644
BAJAJFINSV 4,736 5,011
5,175
5,450
5,614
BPCL
347
360
369
382
390
BHARTIARTL
532
546
554
568
576
INFRATEL
190
208
217
235
244
BRITANNIA 3,234 3,300
3,372
3,437
3,509
CIPLA
606
625
635
654
664
COALINDIA
131
133
134
136
137
DRREDDY 3,953 3,980
4,009
4,036
4,064
EICHERMOT 15,081
15,969
16,479
17,368
17,878
GAIL
89
93
95
98
101
GRASIM
554
578
592
616
630
HCLTECH
545
558
568
581
592
HDFCBANK
907
945
966
1,004
1,024
HDFC 1,671 1,732
1,770
1,831
1,869
HEROMOTOCO
2,165
2,283
2,349
2,468
2,533
HINDALCO
132
139
143
150
154
HINDUNILVR 2,043 2,075
2,097
2,129
2,151
ICICIBANK
316
330
338
352
360
IOC
84
86
87
90
91
INDUSINDBK
464
496
515
548
567
INFY
668
680
688
700
707
ITC
185
189
192
197
200
JSW STEEL
170
180
185
194
200
KOTAKBANK 1,209 1,244
1,267
1,302
1,325
LT
876
901
915
941
955
M&M
436
472
492
529
549
MARUTI 5,050 5,306
5,457
5,713
5,864
NESTLEIND 16,087
16,292
16,504
16,709
16,922
NTPC
93
95
96
98
100
ONGC
81
82
83
85
86
POWERGRID
163
165
167
169
171
RELIANCE 1,464 1,526
1,560
1,622
1,656
SHREECEM 19,639
21,016
22,077
23,453
24,514
SBIN
166
173
176
183
187
SUNPHARMA
445
463
472
490
499
TCS 1,995 2,017
2,033
2,055
2,071
TATAMOTORS
95
100
103
108
111
TATASTEEL
292
305
313
325
333
TECHM
544
549
556
561
567
TITAN
871
924
955
1,008
1,038
ULTRACEMCO 3,526 3,657
3,731
3,862
3,936
UPL
394
403
409
418
424
VEDANTA
94
99
101
106
108
WIPRO
205
206
208
210
211
ZEEL
158
163
168
173
177
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 15, 2020
*
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives same[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com