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March 15, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
35497
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty witnessed a huge gap up opening however it
lacked follow-up buying and right from the word go it slid lower to
erase all the morning gains and in fact ended with a loss of 1.23%
at 35497. For the last few sessions, we have been mentioning a
'Descending Triangle’ pattern and on Friday after opening
precisely around the higher end of the pattern the bank nifty
witnessed a selloff. Now the momentum is back with the bears and
prices have come closer towards the lower end of the mentioned
pattern. For the next few sessions, the 34600 - 34700 levels that is
the lower end of the pattern will be closely watched as a close
below the same can trigger a strong correction mode. On the flip
side, any bounce are likely to get sold into unless we see a sustain
close above the 36500 levels. Besides, we have also witnessed an
increase in volatility hence traders are advised to keep positions
light and avoid undue risk.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 35000 Resistance 1 – 36000
Support 2 – 34600 Resistance 2 – 36200
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (50792) / Nifty (15031)
During the last week, trading started on a flat note but as the week
progressed, we witnessed a gradual up move in the market. The
optimism in global peers (especially the US bourses) was the main
catalyst behind this strength in our markets. Almost each session
during the week started with a decent upside gap and importantly,
it managed to hold on to it. The similar sort of strength was visible
on Friday as well at the opening as Nifty was very much on the move
towards its record highs. However, all of a sudden traders chose to
take some money off the table and hence post the mid-session, we
witnessed a sharp decline to not only pare down all gains but also to
sneak well inside the negative terrain.
Barring second half of Friday, market almost had a unidirectional
move throughout the truncated week. However, post the gap up, we
did not see any major action in indices as they kept oscillating within
a small range by maintaining their positive posture. The real action
was seen in individual themes which also were missing on Friday.
Now with Friday’s move, 15200 15400 has become a sturdy wall
for Nifty and it would really be a daunting task surpassing this in the
absence of any major trigger on the global as well as domestic front.
On the flipside, the key support is placed at 14925 14850. A
sustainable violation of these supports would lead to extended
correction and in that case we may see Nifty sliding towards 14700
or may even test recent swing low of 14467. If we meticulously
observe the hourly chart, a breakdown from the ‘Rising Wedge’
pattern is clearly visible, which certainly does not bode well for the
bulls. All eyes would be on the global peers as they play a vital role
in dictating the near term direction for our market.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
On Friday, most of the sectoral indices too saw some decent profit
booking. The banking and midcap indices are placed at a crucial
support. It would be interesting to see how they behave in the
beginning of this week. Apart from this, the ‘Volatility Index (VIX)’
which had cooled off this week and sneaked below the 19 mark,
again surged to reclaim the 21 level. Further spike in this fear index
could lead to higher volatility in our market. Hence, traders are
advised to stay light and should keep a close tab on all the above
mentioned levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14925 Resistance 1 – 15200
Support 2 – 14850 Resistance2 – 15230
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 15, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2/19 2/23 2/25 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/9 3/12
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Nifty opened with a gap up above 15300 on Friday,
but suddenly it corrected sharply in the later half to
conclude the week just above the 15000 mark
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 943 crores. In Index Future segment, they sold
worth Rs. 586 crores with decrease in open interest
indicating long unwinding and short formations on
Friday.
We witnessed some short covering moves in the Nifty
during the week as the index rallied; while no major
build-up was seen in Bank Nifty till Wednesday.
However, when the markets corrected in the later half
on Friday, traders preferred to form short positions in
the banking index where a rise in open interest was
seen. FII’s preferred to lighten up some of their
positions in index futures during the week. In the
options segment, 15300 call option of the weekly
series has seen a good open interest build up,
indicating aggressive call writing at this strike, while
15000 put option has decent OI outstanding. In case
the Nifty breaches Friday’s low of 14950, then we
could see unwinding of positions by the put writers of
weekly as well as monthly series. Looking at the above
data, we advise traders to stay light on positions and
any pullback towards 15200-15300 if seen, should be
used as a shorting opportunity. On the flipside, a move
below 14950 could drag the index towards its next
support zone of 14800-14700
..
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.53%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 11.40%
as market closed at 15030.95 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 20.45
point against a premium of 34.5 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 93.35
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 20.74 to 21.71.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.12 to 1.02.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are PEL, TVSMOTOR, VEDL, MOTHERSUMI AND
AMARAJABAT.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SBILIFE 8592000 64.72 914.20 -3.16
PFIZER 39250 44.70 4651.95 0.18
CONCOR 7885335 17.49 577.15 0.54
PFC 40430200 9.78 137.70 3.06
HDFCLIFE 8605300 8.97 710.80 -2.78
ICICIPRULI 7753500 8.91 461.80 -4.89
TATAPOWER 154359000 8.54 113.25 5.28
TVSMOTOR 4432400 8.20 584.20 -3.15
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
DEEPAKNTR 712500 -10.55 1573.85 -1.90
NMDC 45834700 -10.28 134.10 2.98
APLLTD 246950 -8.92 939.85 0.14
BANKBARODA 104223600 -8.45 77.35 -4.44
AUBANK 978500 -7.25 1255.45 -0.02
COFORGE 339750 -7.08 2722.00 -0.55
LTI 258000 -6.93 4015.90 -3.02
NAVINFLUOR 204525 -6.77 2667.80 -1.07
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.02 0.95
BANKNIFTY 0.67 1.00
RELIANCE 0.40 0.45
ICICIBANK 0.41 0.49
INFY 0.71 0.57
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
TATAPOWER 52.14
ICICIPRULI 55.11
BAJAJ-AUTO 39.72
MGL 45.30
TRENT 55.47
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 15, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
15030.95
FII Statistics for March 12, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
5456.59
6042.61
(586.02) 127384
13775.68
(1.89)
INDEX
OPTIONS
339088.30
337198.92
1889.38
986457
105738.27
32.72
STOCK
FUTURES
11769.37
13126.12
(1356.75) 1164820
101394.35
(0.79)
STOCK
OPTIONS
15096.60
15207.40
(110.80) 160371
13905.58
0.40
Total 371410.86
371575.05
(164.19) 2439032
234813.88
10.52
Turnover on March 12, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,61,653 46169.41 71.94
Index Options
2,48,31,600
25,06,224.09 -64.49
Stock Futures 7,15,621 67790.96 29.74
Stock Options
17,50,036 1,68,984.76 41.38
Total 2,77,58,910
27,89,169.22 -61.56
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15000 283.80
53.50 46.50 15053.50
Sell 15100 230.30
Buy 15000 283.80
101.50 98.50 15101.50
Sell 15200 182.30
Buy 15100 230.30
48.00 52.00 15148.00
Sell 15200 182.30
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15000 234.45
39.35 60.65 14960.65
Sell 14900 195.10
Buy 15000 234.45
72.15 127.85 14927.85
Sell 14800 162.30
Buy 14900 195.10
32.80 67.20 14867.20
Sell 14800 162.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 15, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
705
717
734
746
764
ASIANPAINT 2,353 2,377
2,421
2,445
2,489
AXISBANK
726
738
757
770
789
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,643 3,695
3,786
3,838
3,930
BAJFINANCE 5,434 5,496
5,583
5,645
5,732
BAJAJFINSV 9,621 9,777
9,997
10,153
10,373
BPCL
445
451
458
464
471
BHARTIARTL
515
520
526
531
537
BRITANNIA 3,382 3,408
3,451
3,477
3,520
CIPLA
792
799
809
816
826
COALINDIA
142
144
146
148
150
DIVISLAB 3,466 3,489
3,527
3,550
3,588
DRREDDY 4,326 4,376
4,453
4,503
4,580
EICHERMOT 2,560 2,599
2,649
2,688
2,738
GAIL
142
144
148
151
155
GRASIM 1,357 1,368
1,386
1,398
1,416
HCLTECH
956
96
8
985
997
1,014
HDFCBANK 1,497 1,525
1,562
1,590
1,627
HDFCLIFE
690
701
720
730
750
HDFC 2,486 2,527
2,597
2,639
2,709
HEROMOTOCO 3,251 3,301
3,360
3,410
3,469
HINDALCO
317
323
334
341
352
HINDUNILVR 2,175 2,190
2,215
2,230
2,255
ICICIBANK
590
601
620
631
649
IOC
99
100
101
102
103
INDUSINDBK
991
1,007
1,032
1,047
1,072
INFY 1,357 1,366
1,379
1,388
1,401
ITC
201
203
206
208
210
JSW STEEL
406
412
420
427
435
KOTAKBANK 1,874 1,905
1,942
1,973
2,010
LT 1,466 1,490
1,527
1,552
1,589
M&M
827
841
859
873
891
MARUTI 6,905 7,001
7,157
7,252
7,408
NESTLEIND 16,434
16,578
16,794
16,938
17,154
NTPC
106
108
110
111
113
ONGC
112
114
115
117
119
POWERGRID
213
217
219
222
224
RELIANCE 2,073 2,10
6
2,156
2,188
2,238
SBILIFE
887
901
919
932
950
SHREECEM 27,302
27,502
27,741
27,941
28,180
SBIN
368
375
384
390
400
SUNPHARMA
600
607
618
625
636
TCS 2,996 3,027
3,072
3,103
3,148
TATAMOTORS
307
312
319
325
332
TATASTEEL
695
708
72
6
739
757
TECHM
980
991
1,008
1,020
1,036
TITAN 1,460 1,471
1,490
1,501
1,519
ULTRACEMCO 6,460 6,549
6,701
6,791
6,943
UPL
604
612
622
631
641
WIPRO
416
421
427
431
437
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 15, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com