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January 14, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
32575)
Bank Nifty started with a gap up opening and marked a fresh
new high at 32683 however it lacked follow-up buying and along
with broader markets it slipped lower for the major part. In the
penultimate hour, buying was seen in some of the heavyweight
banking stocks that pushed the bank index back to the opening
levels to eventually end with gains of 0.73% at 32575.
Yesterday finally the bank index managed to cross the pre-covid
high levels however the follow-up move that was expected was
missing and in fact, prices ended up with a neutral pattern 'Doji'
around this crucial level. Going ahead the movement of the bank
index in the next few sessions will be crucial as if prices manage
to sustain above 32600 - 32700 levels then it can fuel the next
leg of the rally in the broader market. However, if it fails then it
may in fact turn out to be the reason for the long-awaited
correction. Traders are hence advised to be watchful on this high
beta tradable index and trade with proper risk management.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 32150 Resistance 1 – 32700
Support 2 – 32000 Resistance 2 – 33000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
49492)
/ Nifty
(
14565
)
Despite SGX Nifty indicating a flat start early in the morning, our
markets opened with a decent upside gap at record highs well
above 14600. In the initial trade, Nifty marked a new high of
14653.35 and then consolidated for some time. However, post the
midsession, the selling augmented in the market and within a span
of few minutes, Nifty was well off morning high. Fortunately, we
witnessed a smart recovery towards the fag end to conclude the
day on a flat note.
Since last couple of days, although the broader market kept
buzzing, we observed profit booking in individual stocks. Yesterday,
the profit booking mode was seen in so many counters, which
weighed down heavily on the market and thus market had a decent
decline during the day. But similar to recent trend, 2.30 factor once
again played out well in the market, which helped the market erase
its losses completely. Overall it was a day with some decent roller-
coaster move and fortunately due to sheer outperformance from
few banking heavyweights, markets are back to safe terrain. This is
what we have been referring since few days, it’s not going to be
easy ride anymore for traders and one needs to be prepared for
such higher volatility.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14430 Resistance 1 – 14650
Support 2 – 14400 Resistance2 – 14680
With yesterday’s move, 14650 has become an immediate
resistance; whereas on the lower side, last two day’s low of 14430
has now become a crucial point. Any sustainable move below this
level would provide first sign of weakness. Also, we would like to
highlight some typical behaviour of the market. Since last few days,
we are seeing some intraday dips and those declines are getting
comfortably bought in the last one and half hours of strong buying
mode. Whenever we see this behaviour reversing, traders should
immediately lighten up longs.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
12600
12800
13000
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31 1/4 1/6 1/8 1/12
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
We had a cheerful start for the day tad above 14600 mark.
However, it was merely a formality as we witnessed decent
profit booking coming in around 14650. The Nifty plunged
below 14450 mark with an ease but some recovery in the
end led flat closing for the day.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 1879 crore. In index future segment, they sold worth
Rs. 976 crores with fall in open interest indicating long
unwinding in yesterday’s session.
In derivatives segment, we hardly saw any open interest
addition in both the indices. The call strikes of 14600 and
14700 added huge positions, which suggests 14600-14700
to act as a strong hurdle. On the flip side, decent build-up
was seen in 14500 strike. Maximum open interest
concentration for today’s weekly expiry is placed at 14600
call and 14500 put strikes. We have been mentioning that
the market looks a bit overbought and we also saw decent
profit booking in yesterday’s trade. Considering the
development in Nifty, we expect further selling going
ahead. Hence, traders are advised avoiding any aggressive
directional bets in index and prefer trading in individual
counters which is giving trading opportunity on both the
sides.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.98%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
11.62% as market closed at 14564.85 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 34.50
point against a premium of 34.50 point in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
65.85 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.84 to 23.29.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.73 to 1.46.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, GMRINFRA, TITAN, CUMMINSIND,
NMDC and TORNTPHARM.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCAMC 277800 17.22 3245.90 0.86
BANDHANBNK 20971800 14.44 375.10 -3.79
LICHSGFIN 7778000 14.21 438.00 -0.28
FINNIFTY 108680 13.16 15511.15 -0.58
GODREJPROP 1818050 12.96 1428.65 -3.10
PNB 189456000 9.35 36.60 0.41
ONGC 53353300 8.28 105.25 1.98
BAJFINANCE 6270000 7.76 4902.70 -2.96
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ASHOKLEY 35496000 -10.89 121.65 -0.29
BANKBARODA 69849000 -8.72 75.25 6.18
GODREJCP 4497000 -7.39 770.55 0.98
SRTRANSFIN 3709600 -7.17 1216.85 -3.61
INDUSINDBK 14849100 -6.99 942.75 1.67
IOC 49218000 -6.81 100.95 3.05
BOSCHLTD 151450 -6.11 14779.70 1.18
HDFCBANK 31988000 -5.47 1470.65 -0.70
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.46 1.06
BANKNIFTY 1.02 1.00
RELIANCE 0.50 0.33
ICICIBANK 0.65 0.36
INFY 0.51 0.33
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
M&M 49.04
ADANIPORTS 46.79
BANKBARODA 60.31
SBIN 51.27
TATACHEM 44.49
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 14, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14564.8
5
FII Statistics for January 13, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Val
ue
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
4094.72 5071.02 (976.30) 116614 12023.43 (4.00)
INDEX
OPTIONS
514686.09 508726.14 5959.95
995543 99864.96 19.00
STOCK
FUTURES
15913.43 17198.59 (1285.16) 1223656 102963.31 0.32
STOCK
OPTIONS
13014.05 13038.79 (24.74) 162184 13612.35 9.72
Total 547708.29
544034.54
3673.75
2497997
228464.05
7.41
Turnover on January 13, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,25,376 39429.85 38.54
Index Options 4,32,73,529
39,64,853.07 72.97
Stock Futures 10,54,333 92185.59 12.14
Stock Options 22,18,403 2,02,016.01 8.60
Total 4,69,71,641
42,98,484.52 66.04
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14600 226.60
51.40 48.60 14651.40
Sell 14700 175.20
Buy 14600 226.60
94.85 105.15 14694.85
Sell 14800 131.75
Buy 14700 175.20
43.45 56.55 14743.45
Sell 14800 131.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14500 220.85
40.85 59.15 14459.15
Sell 14400 180.00
Buy 14500 220.85
74.65 125.35 14425.35
Sell 14300 146.20
Buy 14400 180.00
33.80 66.20 14366.20
Sell 14300 146.20
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
14800
14900
15000
15100
Call Put
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January 14, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
505
521
530
546
556
ASIANPAINT 2,630 2,6
67
2,715
2,752
2,800
AXISBANK
661
674
683
696
705
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,548 3,574
3,604
3,630
3,660
BAJFINANCE 4,687 4,795
4,934
5,043
5,182
BAJAJFINSV 8,525 8,659
8,845
8,979
9,164
BPCL
394
403
414
423
434
BHARTIARTL
548
563
582
598
617
BRITANNIA 3,575 3,598
3,623
3,646
3,671
CIPLA
823
832
842
852
862
COALINDIA
141
143
146
149
151
DIVISLAB 3,613 3,666
3,729
3,782
3,846
DRREDDY 5,164 5,227
5,301
5,364
5,438
EICHERMOT 2,798 2,833
2,872
2,907
2,946
GAIL
137
139
141
144
146
GRASIM
994
1,014
1,027
1,047
1,061
HCLTECH 1,029 1,042
1,055
1,068
1,081
HDFCBANK 1,442 1,456
1,477
1,491
1,511
HDFCLIFE
699
706
716
722
732
HDFC 2,574 2,622
2,700
2,748
2,826
HEROMOTOCO 3,163 3,210
3,264
3,311
3,365
HINDALCO
254
258
263
268
273
HINDUNILVR 2,345 2,359
2,378
2,392
2,412
ICICIBANK
543
550
555
562
568
IOC
96
99
101
103
105
INDUSINDBK
913
928
941
955
968
INFY 1,347 1,367
1,380
1,400
1,413
ITC
202
207
210
214
218
JSW STEEL
388
396
402
409
415
KOTAKBANK 1,856 1,869
1,890
1,903
1,924
LT 1,328 1,340
1,357
1,369
1,385
M&M
761
795
816
850
871
MARUTI 8,028 8,084
8,167
8,223
8,306
NESTLEIND 17,776
17,898
18,086
18,208
18,396
NTPC
98
100
102
105
107
ONGC
102
104
106
107
110
POWERGRID
201
203
205
207
209
RELIANCE 1,888 1,913
1,944
1,970
2,001
SBILIFE
906
916
933
943
959
SHREECEM 23,932
24,329
24,965
25,362
25,997
SBIN
290
298
303
312
317
SUNPHARMA
587
595
605
612
622
TCS 3,103 3,131
3,154
3,182
3,205
TATAMOTORS
233
238
243
248
254
TATASTEEL
684
697
706
718
727
TECHM 1,037 1,054
1,066
1,082
1,095
TITAN 1,471 1,489
1,512
1,530
1,553
ULTRACEMCO 5,568 5,609
5,642
5,683
5,716
UPL
473
482
494
504
515
WIPRO
445
452
460
467
474
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January 14, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: te[email protected]king.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives [email protected]ngelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]g.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com