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January 13, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
32339)
Bank Nifty started on a negative note around the previous
session low and remained within the negative territory for the
first couple of hours. Subsequently, in the second half, we
witnessed buying in some of the heavyweights banking stocks
that pushed the bank index above the last two sessions high to
eventually end with gains of 1% at 32339.
The Bank Index is placed at an important juncture where the dips
are getting bought with the overall uptrend however the upside
as well is capped with prices reaching all-time high levels. With
yesterday's momentum, the prices are likely to test all-time high
levels at 32600 however the real test will be to surpass it
convincingly. On the flip side, yesterday's low around 31725 can
be taken as sacrosanct support. For the last few days we have
seen a mixed bag of pictures as far as stock-specific moves are
concerned and going ahead traders are advised to continue with
the stock-centric approach that are providing opportunities on
both sides. However, while doing so one needs to have a proper
trade setup.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 32000 Resistance 1 – 32600
Support 2 – 31725 Resistance 2 – 32850
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
49517)
/ Nifty
(
14563
)
We had a sluggish start as indicated by the SGX Nifty early in the
morning. However, it was merely a formality as we witnessed RIL
and few banking heavyweights lifting the benchmark index higher
in the subsequent hours. The upward momentum continued in the
second half to add another half a percent to close tad above the
14550 mark.
Barring couple of days breather in the previous week, the markets
continued its merry run in the new calendar year as well. Almost
every day in the first half, market gives small correction and that
decline is getting bought into comfortably by the bulls. Honestly,
we have not seen such kind of optimism over the past decade or so
and hence, it’s becoming difficult to ride this move now. In fact, the
contrarian bets from retail participants are not letting the markets
fall, which is the practical aspect of the relentless move. Without
thinking much, it’s better to follow levels and take one step at a
time. On the higher side, 14600 is the next level to watch; whereas
on the lower side, 14500 14430 14380 to be seen as
immediate supports.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14500 Resistance 1 – 14600
Support 2 – 14430 Resistance2 – 14680
Yesterday, after a long underperformance, the RIL took the large
and led from the front along with few banking heavyweights. Every
day some new theme comes up to keep up the momentum; but
since last couple of days, it is observed that individual stocks are
witnessing some profit booking as well. Hence, one needs to be
very selective and look for trading opportunities on the both sides
of trend. Also, we reiterate that as a momentum trader, one should
keep booking profits and avoid leveraged positions overnight.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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January 13, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
12600
12800
13000
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
12/17 12/21 12/24 12/28 12/30 1/1 1/5 1/7 1/11
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post Monday’s strong closing, we began yesterday’s
session slightly lower tracking global market but soon
fresh buying picked the momentum. As the day
progressed, the banking index which has recently been
underperforming showed smart pull back to propel Nifty
towards 14600 mark. Auto space which has been buzzing
since last three sessions also contributed to the rally.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 571 crore. In index future segment, they sold worth
Rs. 1206 crores with fall in open interest indicating long
unwinding in yesterday’s session.
In F&O space, despite strong upmove we didn’t see any
relevant open interest addition in both the indices. We
observed meaningful writing in 14500 and 14600 put
options. Whereas, build-up was scattered between
14600-15000 strikes of call options. There are few
derivatives data that hints market is now overbought.
Firstly, the PCR-OI which is on the higher side at 1.73 and
the stronger hands ‘Long Short Ratio’ at 76%, this certainly
doesn’t give the comfort to hold longs now especially in
case of index. Considering the above data points, we
expect some profit booking any time soon and hence, it
would be advisable to keep booking profits at higher
levels from hereon.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.59%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.51%
as market closed at 14563.45 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 34.50
point against a premium of 4.50 point in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
65.85 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.38 to 22.84.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.80 to 1.73.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are ASIANPAINT, IDEA, BHEL, SAIL,
ULTRACEMCO and BHARTIARTL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BANDHANBNK 18325800 39.89 391.45 -4.23
INDUSTOWER 9433200 16.29 261.35 0.11
BANKBARODA 76518000 15.43 70.75 10.83
CANBK 53076600 14.77 139.15 7.88
NESTLEIND 341050 14.52 17999.25 -1.74
PNB 173264000 14.21 36.50 4.42
TATACHEM 9856000 13.73 523.00 4.65
TVSMOTOR 5460000 12.59 518.75 -0.41
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ASHOKLEY 39834000 -9.56 121.60 4.40
BRITANNIA 2673600 -7.19 3631.75 0.62
LICHSGFIN 6810000 -4.84 438.80 2.19
TCS 5406000 -4.15 3174.80 0.12
BOSCHLTD 161300 -3.38 14626.10 4.93
DLF 25492500 -3.05 267.55 8.31
PETRONET 14349000 -3.04 270.55 0.76
BATAINDIA 1165450 -2.98 1624.40 0.18
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.73 0.88
BANKNIFTY 1.02 0.87
RELIANCE 0.50 0.32
ICICIBANK 0.63 0.45
INFY 0.51 0.34
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BANKBARODA 59.91
DLF 62.65
ASIANPAINT 37.90
CANBK 64.47
TATAMOTORS 68.36
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
14563.45
FII Statistics for January 12, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
2954.35 4160.47 (1206.12) 121467 12432.08 (7.03)
INDEX
OPTIONS
251809.93 253181.97 (1372.04) 836563 84343.11 3.75
STOCK
FUTURES
14672.09 14976.40 (304.31) 1219724 102887.82 1.25
STOCK
OPTIONS
10941.19 10912.71 28.48
147816 12293.63 8.03
Total 280377.56
283231.55
(2853.99) 2325570
211956.64
2.07
Turnover on January 12, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 3,11,112 28461.44 -5.52
Index Options 2,50,99,600
22,92,167.46 23.81
Stock Futures 9,36,300 82204.84 13.47
Stock Options 20,19,609 1,86,024.48 14.57
Total 2,83,66,621
25,88,858.22 22.33
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14600 228.90
51.80 48.20 14651.80
Sell 14700 177.10
Buy 14600 228.90
95.15 104.85 14695.15
Sell 14800 133.75
Buy 14700 177.10
43.35 56.65 14743.35
Sell 14800 133.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14500 233.80
41.25 58.75 14458.75
Sell 14400 192.55
Buy 14500 233.80
74.65 125.35 14425.35
Sell 14300 159.15
Buy 14400 192.55
33.40 66.60 14366.60
Sell 14300 159.15
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
14800
14900
15000
15100
Call Put
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January 13, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
493
502
511
520
530
ASIANPAINT 2,623 2,672
2,761
2,810
2,899
AXISBANK
648
662
673
687
699
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,524 3,574
3,608
3,659
3,693
BAJFINANCE 4,883 4,962
5,031
5,110
5,179
BAJAJFINSV 8,836 8,898
8,984
9,045
9,131
BPCL
391
397
403
409
415
BHARTIARTL
536
551
560
575
584
BRITANNIA 3,560 3,596
3,622
3,658
3,685
CIPLA
826
835
850
858
873
COALINDIA
139
143
145
149
151
DIVISLAB 3,689 3,728
3,780
3,819
3,871
DRREDDY 5,262 5,308
5,376
5,422
5,490
EICHERMOT 2,697 2,790
2,869
2,961
3,041
GAIL
137
139
141
144
146
GRASIM
987
998
1,010
1,021
1,032
HCLTECH 1,029 1,046
1,055
1,072
1,082
HDFCBANK 1,434 1,458
1,473
1,496
1,511
HDFCLIFE
707
713
720
726
733
HDFC 2,701 2,724
2,742
2,765
2,783
HEROMOTOCO 3,127 3,187
3,241
3,302
3,356
HINDALCO
255
260
265
270
275
HINDUNILVR 2,333 2,354
2,394
2,415
2,455
ICICIBANK
532
540
545
553
559
IOC
93
96
98
100
102
INDUSINDBK
890
909
925
944
960
INFY 1,352 1,362
1,370
1,380
1,388
ITC
200
203
205
208
210
JSW STEEL
387
393
403
409
419
KOTAKBANK 1,876 1,890
1,910
1,924
1,944
LT 1,331 1,340
1,354
1,363
1,376
M&M
765
773
785
792
804
MARUTI 8,030 8,109
8,219
8,298
8,408
NESTLEIND 17,640
17,819
18,130
18,309
18,620
NTPC
97
99
100
101
103
ONGC
99
101
103
105
107
POWERGRID
198
201
203
206
208
RELIANCE 1,879 1,918
1,939
1,978
1,999
SBILIFE
913
919
928
933
942
SHREECEM 24,824
25,097
25,493
25,766
26,162
SBIN
272
282
288
298
304
SUNPHARMA
597
603
614
620
630
TCS 3,118 3,147
3,178
3,207
3,238
TATAMOTORS
210
224
238
252
266
TATASTEEL
670
683
704
716
737
TECHM 1,040 1,052
1,065
1,077
1,090
TITAN 1,501 1,514
1,537
1,551
1,574
ULTRACEMCO 5,484 5,561
5,629
5,706
5,774
UPL
485
493
499
508
514
WIPRO
435
446
454
465
472
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technic[email protected]
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivat[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit[email protected]ing.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]g.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com