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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13
, 2020
Sensex (
41
) / Nifty
(1
22
57
)
Towards the fag end of the previous week, the tensions between
US and Iran arose from nowhere and the small trailer of it was
seen on Friday (January 03) itself. However, the real repercussion
of this development was seen on the first trading day of the week
gone by. We had a massive cut of nearly two percent to test sub-
12000 levels. This continued till Wednesday’s opening point as
things started to look extremely scary. Fortunately, things cooled
off with respect to this as no follow up action was seen from both
countries thereafter. This resulted into a v-shaped recovery in our
market after an overreaction seen in the first half. Eventually,
Nifty managed to close in the positive territory and now, knocking
on the doors for new milestones.
The action packed week with wild swings finally ended in the
favour of mighty bulls and going by the famous phrase ‘All’s well
that ends well’, the wider smile is back on the faces of market
participants. This Friday, we continued our northward trajectory
and with the help of complete gush, managed to clock fresh
record highs beyond 12300. However, due to decent profit
booking in the latter half, Nifty came off considerably from highs
but not to worry, the overall structure still looks sturdy. Once we
manage to reclaim 12300 again, we will not be surprised to see
index heading towards next milestones of 12400 12500 in the
forthcoming week itself. On the lower side, 12200 followed by
12140 would be seen as immediate supports.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
32097
)
Post a sharp correction in the early part of the week, the
BankNifty too rallied higher later and recovered all those
losses by the end of the week to close above the 32000 mark.
After a correction, the index resumed its uptrend and
surpassed the 32000 mark at closing. Looking at the
momentum in the broader markets, it now seem to be geared
to surpass the previous highs as well. Traders are advised to
continue to trade with a positive bias and use any intra-week
decline as a buying opportunity. The immediate support for
the index is placed in the range of 31885-31400 whereas
resistance is seen around 32500-32620.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 31885 Resistance 1 – 32500
Support 2 – 31400 Resistance 2 – 32620
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Traders are advised not to be
adventurous by taking positions
against the major direction. We have already seen the
consequences of shorting this market in the week gone by.
However, the real highlight was the sheer outperformance of the
mid and small cap baskets. We have been quite vocal on this
space of late and the way it’s shaped up, we expect stellar moves
from the broader end of the spectrum. Do watch out for potential
candidates from this universe along with the ‘Auto’ counters who
are poised for good moves in the near future.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 12200 Resistance 1 – 12300
Support 2 – 12140 Resistance 2 – 12400
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13
, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began the week with a downside gap on account of
the rising geopolitical conflicts and then the selling
aggravated to plunge below the important
psychological support zone of12000 mark. In the next
two sessions, we saw an extension of this selling almost
towards 11900 mark; however, we witnessed a V-
shaped recovery on Wednesday’s session. Then we saw
fresh buying interest in the next two sessions to
eventually conclude the week on a positive note.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 578 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 308 crores rise in open interest, indicating
fresh long formation on Friday’s trading session.
In F&O space, we witnessed fresh long formation in
both the indices. At the same time, call writers covered
their positions and added fresh longs in 12400-12500
strikes. The put writers of the weekly series shifted the
base higher from 12000 to 12200 strike, which is
again a sign of further strength. Analyzing the above
data points, we expect a continuation of last week’s
rally towards 12400-12500.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.24%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 5.31% as
market closed at 12256.80 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 33.20
points against a premium of 53.85 points in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
73.90 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 13.99 to 14.07.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.75 to 1.55.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are DISHTV, GMRINFRA, MANAPPURAM, LUPIN
and NBCC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SUNTV 7124400 22.89 463.40 7.59
ASHOKLEY 64528000 7.88 81.35 -1.09
AMBUJACEM 18785000 7.65 211.75 2.14
ZEEL 33687200 6.24 263.00 -3.21
BHARTIARTL 46315722 6.01 457.00 -0.95
DISHTV 94065300 5.97 12.90 2.36
PIDILITIND 3368500 5.81 1415.10 0.32
CONCOR 6167598 5.68 563.50 0.60
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MFSL 8144500 -10.38 510.90 0.97
TORNTPOWER 3255000 -8.36 297.80 1.53
CHOLAFIN 3302500 -6.71 314.10 2.49
MGL 2133000 -6.67 1005.60 -2.33
MINDTREE 1356000 -6.56 830.85 0.15
ESCORTS 4440700 -5.99 646.85 0.46
ICICIPRULI 10104000 -3.81 488.50 0.84
KOTAKBANK 8779200 -3.56 1684.70 1.18
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.55 0.93
BANKNIFTY 1.19 0.99
RELIANCE 0.77 0.60
ICICIBANK 0.65 0.77
INFY 0.65 0.63
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SUNTV 45.31
YESBANK 119.83
CENTURYTEX 37.70
TATAGLOBAL 36.66
MGL 22.55
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13
, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
12
2
56.80
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
January
10
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3397.29 3089.01 308.28
155662 13481.15 3.80
INDEX
OPTIONS
194090.00 193422.68 667.32
698547 58836.28 8.45
STOCK
FUTURES
11680.99 12086.28 (405.29) 1483615 100100.60 1.00
STOCK
OPTIONS
4967.35 5013.66 (46.31) 65880 4606.15 5.89
Total 214135.63
213611.63
524.00
2403704
177024.18
3.37
Turnover on
January
10
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
303666 22970.83 -14.10
INDEX
OPTIONS
12416925 921200.99 -70.91
STOCK
FUTURES
684987 47870.82 -2.01
STOCK
OPTIONS
684823 51255.08 7.03
TOTAL 1,40,90,401
1043297.72 -68.29
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12300 125.40
47.55 52.45 12347.55
Sell 12400 77.85
Buy 12300 125.40
80.95 119.05 12380.95
Sell 12500 44.45
Buy 12400 77.85
33.40 66.60 12433.40
Sell 12500 44.45
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12300 138.00
36.80 63.20 12263.20
Sell 12200 101.20
Buy 12300 138.00
64.90 135.10 12235.10
Sell 12100 73.10
Buy 12200 101.20
28.10 71.90 12171.90
Sell 12100 73.10
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13
, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 388 390
392 394 396
ASIANPAINT 1,746 1,769
1,783 1,807 1,821
AXISBANK 725 733
742 750 759
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,070 3,086
3,101 3,117 3,133
BAJFINANCE 4,082 4,113
4,150 4,181 4,217
BAJAJFINSV 9,285 9,329
9,382 9,425 9,478
BPCL 462 466
470 475 479
BHARTIARTL 447 452
459 464 471
INFRATEL 243 246
252 255 260
BRITANNIA 2,957 2,974
2,994 3,010 3,031
CIPLA 466 470
473 477 481
COALINDIA 196 201
204 208 211
DRREDDY 2,873 2,903
2,955 2,986 3,038
EICHERMOT 19,985 20,209
20,474 20,698 20,964
GAIL 122 124
126 127 129
GRASIM 742 749
758 765 773
HCLTECH 570 575
583 588 595
HDFCBANK 1,270 1,276
1,282 1,288 1,293
HDFC 2,421 2,439
2,459 2,477 2,496
HEROMOTOCO 2,331 2,347
2,367 2,384 2,404
HINDALCO 208 210
212 214 216
HINDUNILVR 1,922 1,938
1,948 1,964 1,974
ICICIBANK 534 537
542 545 550
IOC 123 124
125 126 127
INDUSINDBK 1,462 1,476
1,499 1,514 1,536
INFY 725 731
737 744 750
ITC 236 237
238 239 240
JSW STEEL 273 275
278 280 283
KOTAKBANK 1,662 1,673
1,683 1,694 1,703
LT 1,310 1,317
1,327 1,334 1,343
M&M 536 541
544 550 553
MARUTI 7,189 7,260
7,305 7,375 7,420
NESTLEIND 14,510 14,598
14,658 14,746 14,807
NTPC 118 119
120 122 123
ONGC 123 124
124 125 126
POWERGRID 190 191
192 194 195
RELIANCE 1,530 1,539
1,548 1,557 1,567
SBIN 323 328
333 337 343
SUNPHARMA 435 439
444 448 453
TCS 2,193 2,203
2,219 2,229 2,245
TATAMOTORS 186 191
195 200 204
TATASTEEL 473 480
487 493 501
TECHM 767 772
777 781 786
TITAN 1,139 1,146
1,159 1,166 1,178
ULTRACEMCO 4,328 4,386
4,425 4,483 4,522
UPL 588 594
601 608 615
VEDANTA 155 157
160 163 166
WIPRO 248 250
253 254 257
YESBANK 41 43
46 47 50
ZEEL 255 259
266 270 278
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 13
, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]angelbroking.com
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