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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 12, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
23847
)
Once again on Friday, the bank index started with a gap up opening
and post some choppy moves after the RBI monetary policy
witnessed a strong positive momentum to end with gains of 2.83% at
23847. Post the recent low at 20400 the bank index has seen a
vertical rally in the last two weeks to gain around 2400 points. With
this strong upmove, the bank nifty broke one after another resistance
with ease and has now closed above key 61.8% retracement levels
(25232 - 20404) and above 200SMA for the first time after seven
months. Initially, the upmove was led with selective heavyweight
counters however post the RBI policy we witnessed a broad-based
rally where the PSU banks as well showed strong momentum. Going
ahead after such sharp moves we may see some intraday decline
however the momentum is strongly gripped by bulls and such dips
should be used to enter long preferably in stock specific. As far as
levels are concerned, immediate support is placed around 23570 -
23300 whereas resistance is at 24200 - 24380 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 23570 Resistance 1 – 24200
Support 2 – 23300 Resistance 2 – 24380
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
40509)
/ Nifty
(
11914
)
We have seen a spectacular comeback by the bulls after the recent
hiccup towards 10800. From the next day onwards, the market just
took off with the help of a few heavyweight themes. Initially, it was the
IT space that took the charge and lifted markets higher from the critical
levels along with some participation from the banking space. In fact,
the momentum kept accelerating in the week gone by; courtesy to
some excellent news flow in the IT giant, TCS to lift the overall
sentiments for other peers as well. Addition to this, HDFC twins joined
the party and had stellar moves throughout the week. Any robust rally
in the market is incomplete without the contribution of the banking
space. On Friday, post the RBI policy, banking stocks attracted
tremendous buying interest to eventually end the week at a new seven
month high for Nifty above the 11900 mark.
In the last couple of weeks’ rally, global markets played the major part
as we are seeing some gravity defying moves despite some in between
uncertainty. Initially, in our recovery mode, we were a bit skeptical but
in the first half of the week, we had to admit the miss and eventually
started participating in the move. The way Nifty surpassed the 31st
August high of 11794 with some authority and is now within the
kissing distance of 12000, the positivity is likely to extend further.
Importantly, the banking space which was following the benchmark in
the entire recovery finally showed some dominance on Friday. This
factor is very much in favor of the bulls, which may provide impetus for
the extended rally. Now, the only missing factor is the participation
from the broader market. If we look at the Nifty Midcap index in the
last 7-8 sessions, they remained muted throughout and only a handful
of heavyweight themes lifted the market higher.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Hence, if Midcap index breaks out from recent congestion, it will be
then considered as a healthy rally. Let see how things pan out in the
next couple of sessions. Now as far as levels are concerned, the base
has shifted higher and the previous resistance area of 11700 11450
should now be treated as a strong support. On the flipside, we are very
much close to the psychological mark of 12000. The moment it’s taken
out, we may see a steady move towards 12200 12400 levels. Since,
the banking index is back to 200-day SMA on the daily chart and the
way it closed with complete gush in the space, a move beyond 24000
would provide strong support to the benchmark index. However, we
would like to highlight that since the move is extremely swift, anytime
we can see some intraday profit booking and hence, one needs to
position accordingly and be very fussy in stock selection.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11820 Resistance 1 – 12000
Support 2 – 11780 Resistance2 – 12200
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 12, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10200
10400
10600
10800
11000
11200
11400
11600
11800
12000
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/16 9/18 9/23 9/25 9/29 10/1 10/6 10/8
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
Post last week’s remarkable move, we saw follow-up
buying to surpass the hurdles of 11600 followed by
11800. We concluded the week 4.32% higher to the
previous weeks close; however, this wasn’t possible
without BankNifty which rallied more than 7%.
FIIs activity in cash market remained muted. In index
future segment, they bought worth Rs. 739 crores with
some fall in open interest, indicating formation of long
positions along with some short covering on Friday’s
trading session.
We saw addition of long positions in both the indices.
In Nifty options, the build-up was scattered between
12100-12700 call options along with unwinding in
12000 strikes. On the other side, decent amount of
writing was seen in 11500-11900 put options. Stronger
hands too continued their buying streak in equities,
index futures and stock futures. The above data points
remains optimistic; hence, traders are advised to
continue trading with a positive bias.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.09%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 8.36%
as market closed at 11914.20 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 15.60
point against a discount of 2.80 point in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
39.95 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 20.06 to 20.38.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
1.46 to 1.60.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are BHEL, IBULHSGFIN, ONGC,
FEDERALBNK and IDEA.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LICHSGFIN 9840000 16.50 306.05 7.21
WIPRO 29702400 11.93 374.00 3.87
TATACONSUM 21435300 9.75 471.25 -3.45
CANBK 15595000 8.45 92.35 3.30
M&MFIN 17343984 8.44 133.35 2.92
SRF 707750 8.09 4266.80 0.28
TCS 7636200 8.01 2813.00 -0.21
ESCORTS 3076700 7.70 1221.65 -1.77
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
VEDL 71783600 -21.49 121.85 2.88
CHOLAFIN 6050000 -8.89 253.75 0.93
UBL 1329300 -6.77 990.50 3.16
BPCL 25686000 -5.65 345.00 1.45
RAMCOCEM 1416100 -5.56 770.95 0.12
CADILAHC 7066400 -5.47 437.95 0.33
ACC 1862000 -5.29 1507.15 -0.71
CIPLA 12898600 -5.23 803.15 -1.21
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.60 0.88
BANKNIFTY 1.27 0.77
RELIANCE 0.53 0.48
ICICIBANK 0.86 0.45
INFY 0.51 0.29
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
LICHSGFIN 62.19
WIPRO 45.34
HDFCBANK 41.02
CUMMINSIND 41.22
HAVELLS 43.27
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 12, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1191
4.20
FII Statistics for October 09, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
4471.31 3732.31 739.00
152070 12413.91 (0.95)
INDEX
OPTIONS
197910.93 197698.07 212.86
869971 71773.90 15.42
STOCK
FUTURES
14535.22 15575.04 (1039.82) 1124614 81080.46 (0.01)
STOCK
OPTIONS
5765.17 5770.49 (5.32) 85999 6718.23 5.42
Total 222682.63
222775.91
(93.28) 2232654
171986.50
5.63
Turnover on October 09, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
5,44,368 36675.25 17.92
Index Options
1,91,70,414 13,39,584.91 -69.57
Stock Futures
8,11,302 59779.13 -9.26
Stock Options
12,54,602 97007.07 -12.12
Total 2,17,80,686 15,33,046.36 -66.74
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 211.45
53.45 46.55 11953.45
Sell 12000 158.00
Buy 11900 211.45
98.50 101.50 11998.50
Sell 12100 112.95
Buy 12000 158.00
45.05 54.95 12045.05
Sell 12100 112.95
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 183.55
39.30 60.70 11860.70
Sell 11800 144.25
Buy 11900 183.55
69.60 130.40 11830.40
Sell 11700 113.95
Buy 11800 144.25
30.30 69.70 11769.70
Sell 11700 113.95
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000 12100 12200 12300 12400 12500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 12, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
351
354
358
361
366
ASIANPAINT 2,004 2,028
2,068
2,091
2,132
AXISBANK
443
456
463
475
482
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,992 3,026
3,062
3,096
3,132
BAJFINANCE 3,234 3,276
3,347
3,389
3,461
BAJAJFINSV 5,789 5,852
5,933
5,996
6,077
BPCL
334
340
345
350
356
BHARTIARTL
416
421
428
432
440
BRITANNIA 3,683 3,714
3,766
3,798
3,850
CIPLA
785
794
810
819
834
COALINDIA
111
113
114
116
118
DIVISLAB 3,124 3,157
3,213
3,247
3,303
DRREDDY 5,060 5,107
5,182
5,229
5,304
EICHERMOT 2,178 2,198
2,216
2,236
2,254
GAIL
82
84
85
87
88
GRASIM
723
734
753
765
784
HCLTECH
843
849
856
862
869
HDFCBANK 1,175 1,204
1,221
1,250
1,266
HDFCLIFE
557
565
577
586
598
HDFC 1,883 1,920
1,975
2,012
2,067
HEROMOTOCO 3,239 3,283
3,311
3,356
3,384
HINDALCO
161
166
174
178
186
HINDUNILVR 2,097 2,118
2,143
2,164
2,188
ICICIBANK
381
391
397
408
414
IOC
73
75
76
78
79
INDUSINDBK
606
614
624
632
642
INFY 1,078 1,092
1,103
1,117
1,128
ITC
165
167
168
169
170
JSW STEEL
287
289
294
297
301
KOTAKBANK 1,289 1,304
1,321
1,337
1,354
LT
874
891
903
920
932
M&M
617
625
636
644
655
MARUTI 6,916 6,989
7,074
7,147
7,232
NESTLEIND 15,758
15,896
16,123
16,261
16,488
NTPC
81
82
83
83
84
ONGC
67
69
70
71
72
POWERGRID
155
157
158
159
161
RELIANCE 2,199 2,216
2,235
2,252
2,270
SBILIFE
788
797
812
821
836
SHREECEM 20,482
20,840
21,045
21,404
21,609
SBIN
188
193
196
201
204
SUNPHARMA
500
506
518
524
536
TCS 2,758 2,785
2,808
2,835
2,857
TATAMOTORS
135
137
140
141
144
TATASTEEL
355
362
375
382
394
TECHM
837
845
854
863
871
TITAN 1,236 1,245
1,257
1,267
1,279
ULTRACEMCO 4,217 4,258
4,316
4,357
4,416
UPL
485
491
502
508
519
WIPRO
350
362
369
381
388
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 12, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: deri[email protected]m
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com