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January 12, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank
Out
look
-
(
31999)
Quite similar to Friday's session, the bank nifty started with a gap
up opening however it lacked follow-up buying and slipped lower
to mark an intraday low of 31837. Subsequently, it managed to
bounce back a little in the second half to eventually end with a loss
of 0.27% tad below 32000 levels.
Yesterday, the bank nifty underperformed as compared to
benchmark index Nifty that added another percent to its current
relentless run. For the last few sessions, we have witnessed a
sluggish move in the bank index as it has reached the vicinity of
the all-time high. Going ahead as long we don't see a broad-based
buying; the bank index may continue to struggle around the last
two sessions high of 32300 and at the all-time high level of 32613.
On the flip side, 31700 and 31530 is the immediate support.
Stock-specific opportunities are seen on both sides of the trend
and traders are advised to follow the same with proper trade
setup.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 31700 Resistance 1 – 32300
Support 2 – 31530 Resistance 2 – 32613
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
49269)
/ Nifty
(
14485
)
Second week of the new calendar year started with a good bump up
at fresh record high tad below the 14500 mark. In the initial hour,
we witnessed a small bout of correction; but similar to recent trend,
the intraday decline was bought into and the index thereafter once
again resumed its upward trajectory. The opening was mainly led by
the IT stocks after a good set of numbers from IT giant TCS over the
weekend and then few Auto heavyweights took it from there to add
another percent to the Bulls’ kitty.
The gravity defying move continues and although, it has turned into
a bit of euphoria, markets are not willing to give any correction at all.
Only god knows when it’s going to happen, but till then it’s better to
participate through stock centric approach by following a money as
well as risk management. As a technician, it’s becoming tougher day
by day to project upward levels as we are located in an uncharted
territory. Beyond 14500, next psychological level would come
around 14600 and on the flipside, 14350 14300 becomes the
immediate support. We reiterate that even if one remains with the
flow, avoid becoming complacent and too aggressive. Hence, as a
short term trader, it’s advisable not to create leveraged positions.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14350 Resistance 1 – 14550
Support 2 – 14300 Resistance2 – 14600
As mentioned in the earlier section, yesterday’s move was mainly
propelled by the IT and Auto stocks; whereas banking remained
slightly on the back foot. Traders should look to identify such
appropriate themes and we reiterate that it’s better to keep booking
profits in the ongoing rally, because every now and then, we are
likely to see stock specific correction in the market.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 12, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
12600
12800
13000
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31 1/4 1/6 1/8
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
We started-off the day on a cheerful note but some profit
booking got attracted at the higher levels. However, similar
to the recent trend we saw fresh buying interest at the lower
levels to eventually extend the move towards 14500 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 3139 crore. In index future segment, they sold worth Rs.
1357 crores with fall in open interest indicating long
unwinding in yesterday’s session.
In F&O space we saw fresh long formation in Nifty; whereas,
banking index underperformed as traders preferred
booking profits. Despite, intraday dip below 14400 mark the
put writers of 14400 strike stood firmly. As a result, we saw
smart pullback towards 14500 mark. Now, the highest open
interest is visible in 14800 call and 14200 put options. PCR-
OI at 1.80 hints market is once again overbought. In
addition, the futures premium for Nifty decreased
drastically which is not a healthy sign. We also observed
implied volatility rising 8% yesterday, further rise may lead
some profit booking. Stronger hands too preferred booking
profit. Considering yesterday’s development in F&O data,
we would advise traders to keep booking profits now and
prefer trading in individual counters.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.25%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.79%
as market closed at 14484.75 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 4.50
point against a premium of 23.65 point in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of 40.10
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 20.64 to 22.38.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.71
to 1.80.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are NATIONALUM, PNB, GMRINFRA, SAIL and
CANBK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MRF 55360 14.74 82507.90 2.46
GAIL 36935500 14.05 135.70 1.69
COFORGE 661875 11.36 2816.95 0.45
TECHM 11697600 10.28 1077.60 2.67
TATACONSUM 13926600 10.05 629.00 3.34
TATAMOTORS 71552100 8.04 220.60 11.51
RBLBANK 19720000 7.56 255.95 -3.08
BAJAJ-AUTO 1840500 7.26 3617.35 2.28
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TCS 5640300 -13.29 3176.45 1.77
GODREJPROP 1495650 -6.88 1472.80 0.77
PETRONET 14799000 -6.87 269.85 0.37
CHOLAFIN 4340000 -6.77 426.80 -1.29
INDUSINDBK 15277500 -6.53 929.10 -1.06
ASHOKLEY 44046000 -6.51 116.95 3.36
SRF 316875 -6.08 5920.85 -0.07
INDUSTOWER 8111600 -5.57 262.25 -2.31
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.80 1.02
BANKNIFTY 0.87 1.05
RELIANCE 0.49 0.36
ICICIBANK 0.64 0.51
INFY 0.53 0.33
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
MANAPPURAM 65.31
IDEA 121.98
MOTHERSUMI 70.06
IBULHSGFIN 101.62
SUNTV 50.65
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 12, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14484.75
FII Statistics for January 11, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
2901.73 4258.86 (1357.13) 130651 13301.21 (7.04)
INDEX
OPTIONS
231385.03 229870.96 1514.07
806297 81202.18 10.75
STOCK
FUTURES
13352.53 12655.75 696.78
1204622 101164.63 0.01
STOCK
OPTIONS
9570.45 9707.70 (137.25) 136830 11267.71 9.17
Total 257209.74
256493.27
716.47
2278400
206935.73
3.64
Turnover on January 11, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 3,24,656 30125.39 10.67
Index
Options
2,00,80,687
18,51,286.93
21.58
Stock
Futures
8,33,770 72443.16 -0.93
Stock
Options
17,97,417
1,62,367.13
8.24
Total
2,30,36,530
21,16,222.61
19.36
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14500 229.15
52.20 47.80 14552.20
Sell 14600 176.95
Buy 14500 229.15
96.45 103.55 14596.45
Sell 14700 132.70
Buy 14600 176.95
44.25 55.75 14644.25
Sell 14700 132.70
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14500 243.15
41.00 59.00 14459.00
Sell 14400 202.15
Buy 14500 243.15
75.05 124.95 14424.95
Sell 14300 168.10
Buy 14400 202.15
34.05 65.95 14365.95
Sell 14300 168.10
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
14800
14900
15000
15100
Call Put
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January 12, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
493
501
512
519
530
ASIANPAINT 2,800 2,825
2,849
2,874
2,898
AXISBANK
651
659
668
676
684
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,477 3,547
3,591
3,661
3,705
BAJFINANCE 4,865 4,925
5,018
5,077
5,171
BAJAJFINSV 8,761 8,873
9,068
9,180
9,375
BPCL
391
396
401
406
410
BHARTIARTL
535
541
548
554
561
BRITANNIA 3,518 3,565
3,595
3,643
3,673
CIPLA
823
840
850
867
877
COALINDIA
139
140
142
143
144
DIVISLAB 3,756 3,789
3,839
3,872
3,922
DRREDDY 5,289 5,353
5,390
5,454
5,491
EICHERMOT 2,689 2,733
2,771
2,815
2,853
GAIL
130
133
135
138
139
GRASIM
986
995
1,004
1,013
1,022
HCLTECH
990
1,022
1,041
1,073
1,092
HDFCBANK 1,422 1,437
1,451
1,465
1,479
HDFCLIFE
709
717
724
732
739
HDFC 2,631 2,691
2,727
2,787
2,822
HEROMOTOCO 3,112 3,155
3,190
3,233
3,268
HINDALCO
253
259
264
270
275
HINDUNILVR 2,385 2,407
2,424
2,447
2,464
ICICIBANK
531
538
542
549
553
IOC
94
95
96
97
98
INDUSINDBK
911
920
935
945
960
INFY 1,323 1,350
1,367
1,393
1,410
ITC
198
200
203
205
208
JSW STEEL
387
393
399
405
411
KOTAKBANK 1,915 1,927
1,947
1,958
1,978
LT 1,320 1,335
1,360
1,375
1,400
M&M
753
771
781
799
809
MARUTI 7,729 7,981
8,134
8,386
8,540
NESTLEIND 18,017
18,204
18,375
18,562
18,733
NTPC
97
98
100
101
102
ONGC
96
99
101
104
106
POWERGRID
200
202
203
205
207
RELIANCE 1,863 1,880
1,910
1,927
1,956
SBILIFE
913
925
939
950
964
SHREECEM 25,090
25,330
25,640
25,880
26,190
SBIN
275
279
283
287
292
SUNPHARMA
607
614
621
628
635
TCS 3,101 3,139
3,184
3,222
3,268
TATAMOTORS
189
205
215
231
241
TATASTEEL
675
685
699
709
722
TECHM 1,026 1,052
1,067
1,093
1,108
TITAN 1,534 1,549
1,561
1,575
1,587
ULTRACEMCO 5,417 5,520
5,608
5,712
5,800
UPL
484
491
500
506
515
WIPRO
428
438
444
454
460
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 12, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: techni[email protected].com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]g.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com