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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 11, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (26463)
BankNifty index witnessed a significant gap down opening on
Monday and corrected sharply during the day to breach the
26000 mark. It recovered marginally from the low in the end but
still, ended with a deep cut of almost 5% at 26463.
The trend continues to be negative and as we have been
witnessing in the last couple of weeks. The global markets
depicted a gloomy picture post the sharp sell-off in the crude
during the weekend and this had an impact on our markets too.
What we have seen in the last three sessions in the banking
space can be termed as a capitulation and has shattered the
confidence of the market participants. Since the last few days, we
have been advising traders to stay light and looking at the
current market scenario, we could continue with the same advice
until there emerges any signs of reversal. The immediate
supports for the index are placed around 25900 and 25600
whereas resistance is seen in the range of 27200 -27500.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 25900 Resistance 1 – 27200
Support 2 – 25600 Resistance 2 – 27500
Sensex (35635) / Nifty (10451)
After a long time, the market is in a beast-mode as we have
already seen a relentless fall in last couple of weeks. To make it
worst, series of other developments are adding fuel to this
global meltdown. We had a terrible start to the new trading
week on the back of Crude oil tumbling more than 20% as the
OPEC deal failure triggered the price war. This resulted into a
complete turmoil across the globe and we clearly got scorched
in this firestorm. The selling augmented at the midst of the day
and due to some modest recovery in the latter half, Nifty ended
with a sharper cut of nearly 5% to the previous close.
The market is clearly driven by fear and sentiments now. In such
kind of phase, no analysis works and no support levels are
respected. Hence, the ideal situation is to stay away from
momentum trades, especially against the current tide and
aggressive bets should be strictly avoided. The prudent strategy
would be to stay on the side-lines and yes, can do some nibbling
into quality propositions with a broader perspective. As far as
levels are concerned, 10300 10200 are the next supports and
on the flipside, 10600 10751 can be seen as immediate
hurdles. Only the developments with respect to coronavirus are
likely to dictate the prices trends and hence, all eyes would be on
it now.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10300 Resistance 1 – 10600
Support 2 – 10200 Resistance 2 – 10751
Exhibit 1:
Nifty
Daily
Chart
Exhibit 2:
Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
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March 11, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
,0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2/12 2/14 2/18 2/20 2/25 2/27 3/2 3/4 3/6
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iews
The indices started the week with a gap down
opening and witnessed a sharp sell off to end the
day below the 10500 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 6596 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 222 crores with increase in open interest,
indicating long positions created in Monday’s session.
The stronger hands continued the selling streak in the
cash segment while the index futures figures were
muted post the huge gap down on Monday. The put
writers ran for cover as the market corrected and
breached the important supports. India VIX continued
its northward journey and ended above the 30 mark
for the first time post May 2014. As per the options
data, the index is expected to trade in the broad range
of 10000-11000 and hence, we continue with our
recent advice for traders to stay light on positions and
avoid taking undue risks.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.51%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.68%
as market closed at 10451.45 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a discount of 4.45
points against a discount of 49.55 points in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 53.75
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 25.64 to 30.80.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.25 to 1.04.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, OIL, RECLTD, ADANIENT and
SUNPHARMA.
OI
Gainer
s
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCLIFE 2327400 30.94 517.65 -5.57
MINDTREE 1468800 22.97 905.15 -9.07
IDEA 585158000 22.76 4.00 20.90
TATASTEEL 24484500 11.03 322.30 -8.26
BAJAJ-AUTO 2150000 10.00 2573.45 -5.56
NIITTECH 603750 9.52 1660.85 -7.28
BANDHANBNK 4867200 9.00 374.30 -7.39
TATACHEM 1280700 7.97 298.25 -3.87
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHOLAFIN 5620000 -16.18 274.00 -2.58
COALINDIA 40470300 -15.76 157.95 -5.04
NTPC 58411200 -13.23 102.90 0.15
POWERGRID 45272000 -13.15 180.95 -3.17
RAMCOCEM 800800 -10.38 715.30 -2.93
YESBANK 236104000 -10.12 21.25 96.37
HINDPETRO 12511800 -9.97 212.60 5.55
MFSL 3192800 -8.83 500.20 -4.24
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.04 0.82
BANKNIFTY 0.58 0.72
RELIANCE 0.34 0.35
ICICIBANK 0.40 0.51
INFY 0.49 0.66
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
RELIANCE 70.79
ONGC 93.01
INDUSINDBK 74.14
RBLBANK 133.66
FEDERALBNK 62.13
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 11, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
10451.45
Lot Size = 75
FII
Statistics for March
09
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
11044.15
10822.47
221.68
246592
18486.24
0.88
INDEX
OPTIONS
216175.30
214094.92
2080.38
906144
67679.31
18.74
STOCK
FUTURES
20282.02
19688.95
593.07
1468341
83654.18
0.22
STOCK
OPTIONS
6913.15
6940.64
(27.49) 66376
3861.04
6.51
Total 254414.62
251546.98
2867.64
2687453
173680.77
6.01
Turnover
on
March
0
9
,
20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 728116 49094.67 27.05
Index Options 14867337 1004940.80 42.53
Stock Futures 1055585 59731.20 17.09
Stock Options 920098 56881.19 14.14
Total 1,75,71,136 1170647.86 38.61
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10500 278.25
49.25 50.75 10549.25
Sell 10600 229.00
Buy 10500 278.25
92.15 107.85 10592.15
Sell 10700 186.10
Buy 10600 229.00
42.90 57.10 10642.90
Sell 10700 186.10
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10400 281.95
41.20 58.80 10358.80
Sell 10300 240.75
Buy 10400 281.95
72.95 127.05 10327.05
Sell 10200 209.00
Buy 10300 240.75
31.75 68.25 10268.25
Sell 10200 209.00
Nifty
Put
-
Call
Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300
Call Put
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March 11, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 307 314
324 332
342
ASIANPAINT 1,809 1,838
1,877 1,906 1,945
AXISBANK 600 612
627 639
654
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,476 2,525
2,607 2,656 2,739
BAJFINANCE 3,851 3,939
4,033 4,121 4,216
BAJAJFINSV 7,982 8,095
8,272 8,385 8,562
BPCL 379 402
428 450
477
BHARTIARTL 479 488
500 508
521
INFRATEL 187 199
207 219
227
BRITANNIA 2,916 2,956
3,009 3,049 3,102
CIPLA 418 422
427 431
437
COALINDIA 151 154
161 164
170
DRREDDY 2,929 2,995
3,092 3,158 3,255
EICHERMOT 16,689 17,288
17,643 18,241 18,597
GAIL 96 98
102 104
107
GRASIM 609 622
638 651
667
HCLTECH 523 532
545 553
567
HDFCBANK 1,044 1,075
1,097 1,129 1,150
HDFC 1,939 1,984
2,025 2,070 2,112
HEROMOTOCO
1,865
1,910
1,961
2,007
2,057
HINDALCO 138 141
143 146
149
HINDUNILVR 2,077 2,099
2,134 2,157 2,192
ICICIBANK 427 442
459 474
491
IOC 94 97
101 104
108
INDUSINDBK 837 870
920 953 1,003
INFY 680 692
709 721
738
ITC 172 175
177 179
181
JSW STEEL 222 226
229 232
235
KOTAKBANK 1,510 1,544
1,577 1,611 1,644
LT 1,033 1,068
1,102 1,136 1,170
M&M 432 448
457 472
481
MARUTI 5,924 6,062
6,218 6,357 6,513
NESTLEIND 15,379 15,705
16,027 16,354 16,676
NTPC 97 100
102 105
107
ONGC 69 72
77 80 86
POWERGRID 172 176
183 187
193
RELIANCE 1,004 1,059
1,150 1,205 1,296
SBIN 244 249
256 260
267
SUNPHARMA 376 385
394 403
413
TCS 1,851 1,912
1,996 2,057 2,141
TATAMOTORS 101 103
107 109
112
TATASTEEL 309 315
327 333
345
TECHM 677 691
710 724
744
TITAN 1,140 1,172
1,207 1,239 1,274
ULTRACEMCO 3,916 4,007
4,086 4,176 4,255
UPL 484 498
509 524
534
VEDANTA 86 90
98 102
110
WIPRO 208 211
216 219
224
YESBANK 13 17
20 24 27
ZEEL 175 185
200 210
226
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 11, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresea[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]gelbroking.com
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