Technical & Derivatives Report
February 11, 2019
Sensex (36546) / Nifty (10944)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
The recovery mood started in our markets from the prior day of
the Union Budget. After giving a good move of nearly 500 points
in five days, the rally halted on the day of RBI Monetary policy. It
was quite surprising to see massive sell off on the following day,
despite RBI Governor granting 25bps cut in Repo rate and
changing the stance to neutral. The selling aggravated in the last
hour of the week to shave off decent portion of intra-week gains.
First half of the week gone by has been fantastic for benchmarks.
In the process, Nifty managed to surpass its multi-month hurdle
of 11000. In this move, the broader market continued to
underperform; but on Thursday, index consolidated and there
was some early sign of revival seen in so many individual
pockets. This ecstasy did not last long as we saw yet another bout
of immense selling across the board on Friday to conclude the
week with lot of ambiguity. Going ahead, if market has to see a
robust move, it would be very important for other pockets to
participate as well. As far as levels are concerned, we are still in
the relatively safe zone. Going ahead, 10900 - 10850 would be
seen as a key support zone. Till the time Nifty remains above it,
there is no reason to worry for. On the flipside, 11041 followed
by 11118 are the levels to watch out for.
At this juncture, a prudent strategy would be to stay light and
follow a stock specific approach. One could switch on to the
aggressive mode only after Nifty surpassing the 11000 mark
along with the broader market participation. In this scenario, a
move towards 11300 - 11400 cannot be ruled out. Only a
sustainable move below 10850 would give a dent to above
mentioned optimistic scenarios.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10900
Resistance 1 -
11000
Support 2 - 10850
Resistance 2 -
11041
Nifty Bank Outlook - (27294)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
During last week, the Nifty Bank index rallied higher in initial
couple of trading sessions. However, on the day of RBI monetary
policy, the index approached its resistance zone of 27550-27600
and was unable to surpass the same. The index corrected from
that range and ended the week tad below 27300 mark.
From a near term perspective, only a breakout above 27600 will
lead to a trended up move in the Nifty Bank index. The short-term
support for the index is placed around 27200, below which we
can see the index extending the corrective phase. As mentioned in
our last week's report, we continue with or advise for traders to
focus on stock specific moves from the banking space until we see
a breakout above the mentioned resistance.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 27200
Resistance 1 -
27550
Support 2 - 26980
Resistance 2 -
27600
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 11, 2019
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.26%.
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.17%
as market closed at 10943.60 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of
13.65 points against a premium of 24.40 points in last
trading session. The March series closed at a premium of
44.75 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 15.43 to 15.57.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.78 to 1.59.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JPASSOCIAT, RCOM, SOUTHBANK,
ADANIPOWER and GMRINFRA.
Views
OI Gainers
Last week, we saw follow-up buying to surpass the
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
important hurdle of 11000 mark. The rally extended
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
above 11100 but due to some profit booking on Friday’s
NHPC
19575000
27.87
23.55
-3.41
session, we concluded the week with the gains of merely
KSCL
1063500
18.76
550.40
-4.72
0.40%.
BPCL
6024600
16.91
337.40
-1.90
FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune
POWERGRID
12704000
15.32
181.00
-2.31
of Rs. 844 crores. In index futures segment, they sold
SAIL
89580000
14.49
44.85
-8.19
significantly of Rs. 224 crores with some rise in open
NESTLEIND
353150
14.44
11242.70
-4.26
interest, indicating blend of long unwinding and some
LT
8925750
13.40
1261.75
-3.04
fresh short formation on Friday’s session.
AJANTPHARM
1011500
12.58
960.90
-0.71
As far as Nifty options activities are concerned,
11000-11300 call options added fresh positions. On the
other side, apart from some build-up in 10600 put
OI Losers
options; decent unwinding took place in 10800-11100
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
strikes. Maximum open interest concentration is now
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
seen in 11000 call and 10400 put options.
RELINFRA
9682400
-9.67
118.15
6.89
During the week, we saw decent long formation and
TATAMTRDVR
28629200
-8.52
80.85
-14.64
these positions are still intact. Stronger has too
APOLLOTYRE
9744000
-7.46
203.15
-1.62
participated in the recent rally by adding positive bets in
RPOWER
95648000
-7.12
10.90
7.92
cash as well as index futures. At present, the earlier
JUBLFOOD
2940500
-6.58
1347.00
0.24
resistance of 10900-10950 shall now act as a support
RAYMOND
4172000
-6.05
687.55
4.99
for index. Thus, traders are advised to use intraday
ARVIND
6802000
-6.00
81.35
0.18
declines to add-on fresh longs.
PFC
27552800
-4.94
100.90
-4.10
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
TATAMOTORS
98.67
NIFTY
1.59
0.97
TATAMTRDVR
82.41
BANKNIFTY
1.04
0.90
MRF
32.97
RELIANCE
0.86
1.00
NESTLEIND
28.00
ICICIBANK
0.75
0.66
SAIL
57.02
INFY
1.07
0.64
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 11, 2019
FII Statistics for February 08, 2019
Turnover on February 08, 2019
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
3000.77
3225.11
(224.35)
353359
28133.48
2.75
287293
20066.33
6.72
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
86223.52
84345.81
1877.71
788961
60406.20
3.47
7706348
477443.99
-71.72
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
12522.57
13321.14
(798.57)
1488511
88410.38
1.56
STOCK
FUTURES
907299
48630.99
6.86
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
9609.99
9650.93
(40.94)
129950
7568.52
8.42
916812
51351.74
14.57
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
111356.84
110542.99
813.85
2760781
184518.58
2.56
TOTAL
74455
700968
-66.76
Nifty Spot = 10943.60
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
11000
111.55
Buy
11000
157.35
38.00
62.00
11038.00
41.75
58.25
10958.25
Sell
11100
73.55
Sell
10900
115.60
Buy
11000
111.55
Buy
11000
157.35
68.60
131.40
11068.60
74.65
125.35
10925.35
Sell
11200
42.95
Sell
10800
82.70
Buy
11100
73.55
Buy
10900
115.60
30.60
69.40
11130.60
32.90
67.10
10867.10
Sell
11200
42.95
Sell
10800
82.70
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 11, 2019
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
324
328
332
336
341
ASIANPAINT
1,423
1,436
1,458
1,471
1,493
AXISBANK
706
713
723
729
739
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,806
2,829
2,854
2,877
2,902
BAJFINANCE
2,637
2,672
2,705
2,740
2,772
BAJAJFINSV
6,066
6,124
6,209
6,268
6,353
BPCL
328
333
340
344
352
BHARTIARTL
303
308
311
316
319
INFRATEL
288
307
321
340
354
CIPLA
524
529
536
542
549
COALINDIA
213
216
221
224
229
DRREDDY
2,713
2,742
2,780
2,808
2,846
EICHERMOT
20,013
20,430
21,167
21,584
22,321
GAIL
332
334
337
339
342
GRASIM
674
696
730
752
786
HCLTECH
1,050
1,059
1,068
1,077
1,085
HDFCBANK
2,086
2,105
2,125
2,143
2,163
HDFC
1,918
1,931
1,950
1,963
1,982
HEROMOTOCO
2,890
2,914
2,937
2,962
2,985
HINDALCO
202
204
206
209
211
HINDPETRO
223
227
233
237
243
HINDUNILVR
1,789
1,803
1,825
1,839
1,861
IBULHSGFIN
570
592
627
649
684
ICICIBANK
347
351
355
359
362
IOC
130
132
135
137
140
INDUSINDBK
1,468
1,483
1,506
1,522
1,545
INFY
745
753
763
770
780
ITC
271
273
277
280
284
JSW STEEL
253
258
265
270
278
KOTAKBANK
1,262
1,281
1,296
1,315
1,330
LT
1,229
1,245
1,272
1,289
1,315
M&M
661
672
689
700
717
MARUTI
6,978
7,056
7,178
7,256
7,378
NTPC
128
130
134
136
140
ONGC
140
142
145
147
150
POWERGRID
176
178
183
186
191
RELIANCE
1,255
1,266
1,283
1,295
1,312
SBIN
280
283
285
289
291
SUNPHARMA
419
425
430
436
442
TCS
2,029
2,045
2,067
2,084
2,106
TATAMOTORS
113
132
148
167
184
TATASTEEL
452
461
474
482
496
TECHM
790
798
808
816
826
TITAN
1,030
1,042
1,059
1,071
1,088
ULTRACEMCO
3,481
3,519
3,554
3,592
3,626
UPL
794
803
810
819
826
VEDANTA
143
148
155
161
168
WIPRO
366
369
372
376
378
YESBANK
170
173
176
178
181
ZEEL
388
394
401
406
414
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 11, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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