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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 10, 2020
Sensex (
41142
) / Nifty
2098
)
What a spectacular week it was for our markets, especially after
seeing a massive knock of more than 300 points on the budget
day (last Saturday). The kind of fall we witnessed post the budget
who would have thought of such kind of price move in the
subsequent week. But fortunately, the fear over ‘Coronavirus’
subsided as the week progressed and this eventually had a
positive impact on all global markets to a great extent. We too
managed to stabilise from the shocker budget day and witnessed
a v-shaped recovery in tandem with the global peers. With this,
the Nifty recouped almost complete losses to end the remarkable
week with nearly 4% gains.
Now, it’s easy analysing in hindsight and cheering stupendous
recovery but the conviction and emotions were completely shaken
last Saturday after witnessing such a terrible fall. In the midst of
all this, we remained a bit hopeful considering the cluster of
support around 11600. The 200-SMA’ coupled with few
Fibonacci ratios acted as a sheet anchor for our markets and
played an essential role in the swift recovery. Eventually, the
hope turned into a reality. We are back above 12000 now,
considerably in the safer terrain and the way prices are shaped
up now, we expect the northward trajectory to continue.
Technically, we have reclaimed the 20-day EMA’ which is now
accompanied by the classical positive crossover in ‘RSI-
Smoothened’ oscillator. Hence, one should continue with a Buy
on decline strategy.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
31202
)
During last week, the BankNifty index witnessed a V-shaped
recovery and posted gains of almost 1400 points to end above
31200 mark.
It has been a remarkable recovery for the index post the recent
corrective phase. The private sector index heavyweights have seen
move with good volumes which led to this sharp recovery.
Looking at the momentum, we expect the uptrend to continue in
the near term and hence, traders should avoid taking contra
traders and rather use any declines as buying opportunities. The
Nifty PSU Bank index has been an underperformer in the recent
past; but now the momentum reading has given a positive
crossover in the oversold territory which should lead to a pullback
move in this space too. The immediate support for the BankNifty
are placed around 31025 and 30930 whereas resistances are
seen around 31500 and 32000.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 31025 Resistance 1 – 31500
Support 2 – 30930 Resistance 2 – 32000
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The immediate supports are now placed at
12050
11980
and on
the higher side, we saw some breather around 12150; but it’s a
matter of time, the index would surpass this minor hurdle to march
towards 12250 and beyond. Last Saturday, although, ‘200-day
SMA’ we were seeing as a possible saviour but our real conviction
was based only on the overall positioning of ‘Nifty Midcap 50’
index. It certainly has not disappointed us and from here on, we
expect the outperformance to continue from the broader market.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 12050 Resistance 1 – 12150
Support 2 – 11980 Resistance 2 – 12250
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 10, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
11200
11400
11600
11800
12000
12200
12400
12600
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1
-
15
1
-
20
1
-
22
1
-
27
1
-
29
1
-
31
2
-
3
2
-
5
2
-
7
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Views
Post sharp fall seen on the budget day, we started off
slightly lower but 11600-11650 acted as a good
support zone. The benchmark index recovered the
same day and managed to close above 11700 mark.
This short covering rally continued for the next three
sessions to almost reclaim 12200 mark. However,
some profit booking on Friday led weekly closing with
the gains of 3.78% tad below 12100.
FIIs were net buyer in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 162 crores. In index futures, they sold of
worth Rs. 428 crores with some fall in open interest,
indicating some short formation took place on Friday’s
session.
Surprisingly, the open interest change WoW was merely
0.69%, indicating the blend of short covering and some
fresh long formation. In options front, the base has
now shifted higher to 12000, which may now act as a
strong support zone. Thus, any dips towards around
this level shall be an opportunity to add-on fresh longs.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.50%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.37%
as market closed at 12098.35 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a discount of 2.45
points against a discount of 6.75 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 19.25
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 13.78 to 13.74.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.38 to 1.40.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, PNB, NCC, LICHSGFIN and ACC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MRF 21570 9.55 70956.85 -1.15
IDEA 473536000 9.37 5.24 2.91
DIVISLAB 1770000 8.80 2086.00 2.34
APOLLOHOSP 1811500 8.47 1663.15 1.27
GODREJCP 6480000 8.36 646.80 -0.56
KOTAKBANK 8858800 6.95 1653.05 -1.03
DLF 34409100 6.37 235.80 -4.52
PETRONET 20037000 6.35 272.65 0.16
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RBLBANK 14268000 -6.67 339.80 1.97
MGL 2194800 -6.56 1198.45 -0.37
IBULHSGFIN 24657600 -5.43 321.40 -1.38
CADILAHC 8153200 -5.36 275.20 0.79
L&TFH 28806400 -5.16 131.55 2.88
BATAINDIA 2122450 -4.69 1842.45 -0.73
NTPC 153067200 -4.47 115.60 -0.62
LICHSGFIN 12442300 -3.79 441.25 1.14
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.40 0.90
BANKNIFTY 1.26 0.95
RELIANCE 0.53 0.74
ICICIBANK 0.59 0.66
INFY 0.44 0.39
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
AUROPHARMA 53.54
DIVISLAB 26.22
BIOCON 41.93
VOLTAS 27.70
LUPIN 26.12
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 10, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
12098.35
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
February
07
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
2707.38 3135.52 (428.14) 172458 14616.24 0.49
INDEX
OPTIONS
152869.68 151844.71 1024.97
671924 56991.95 10.00
STOCK
FUTURES
13798.25 13524.81 273.44
1582580 104139.84 0.40
STOCK
OPTIONS
4542.37 4542.98 (0.61) 63188 4339.21 6.43
Total 173917.68
173048.02
869.66
2490150
180087.24
2.98
Turnover on
February
07
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 235359 17297.94 -35.07
Index Options 9500966 685604.67 -79.76
Stock Futures 716332 48539.21 -21.22
Stock Options 779587 55267.88 -20.30
Total 1,12,32,244
806709.70 -77.24
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
12100 131.90
48.65 51.35 12148.65
Sell 12200 83.25
Buy 12100 131.90
82.50 117.50 12182.50
Sell 12300 49.40
Buy 12200 83.25
33.85 66.15 12233.85
Sell 12300 49.40
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12100 135.45
39.55 60.45 12060.45
Sell 12000 95.90
Buy 12100 135.45
69.60 130.40 12030.40
Sell 11900 65.85
Buy 12000 95.90
30.05 69.95 11969.95
Sell 11900 65.85
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
11400
11500
11600
11700
11800
11900
12000
12100
12200
12300
12400
12500
12600
12700
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 10, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 364 367
370 373 377
ASIANPAINT 1,836 1,847
1,862 1,873 1,888
AXISBANK 729 738
744 754 759
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,061 3,098
3,143 3,180 3,226
BAJFINANCE 4,595 4,625
4,656 4,685 4,717
BAJAJFINSV 9,507 9,565
9,619 9,678 9,732
BPCL 481 486
491 496 501
BHARTIARTL 531 535
542 546 553
INFRATEL 240 244
246 250 253
BRITANNIA 3,203 3,227
3,262 3,286 3,320
CIPLA 434 438
442 447 451
COALINDIA 175 180
183 188 191
DRREDDY 3,115 3,141
3,163 3,189 3,211
EICHERMOT 19,123 19,430
19,973 20,280 20,824
GAIL 121 122
123 124 126
GRASIM 774 781
792 799 810
HCLTECH 595 602
605 612 615
HDFCBANK 1,225 1,234
1,240 1,249 1,256
HDFC 2,365 2,385
2,419 2,439 2,473
HEROMOTOCO 2,379 2,411
2,454 2,486 2,528
HINDALCO 191 194
196 200 202
HINDUNILVR 2,127 2,144
2,158 2,174 2,188
ICICIBANK 531 534
538 540 544
IOC 114 116
117 119 120
INDUSINDBK 1,262 1,280
1,313 1,332 1,365
INFY 768 773
776 780 784
ITC 211 212
214 215 217
JSW STEEL 270 275
277 282 285
KOTAKBANK 1,624 1,639
1,658 1,673 1,692
LT 1,285 1,292
1,303 1,310 1,322
M&M 550 560
571 580 591
MARUTI 6,871 6,921
6,986 7,036 7,101
NESTLEIND 16,112 16,220
16,302 16,410 16,493
NTPC 111 113
115 117 119
ONGC 105 107
109 110 112
POWERGRID 186 188
191 193 195
RELIANCE 1,414 1,424
1,438 1,448 1,462
SBIN 315 318
321 324 328
SUNPHARMA 413 422
432 441 450
TCS 2,104 2,120
2,136 2,152 2,168
TATAMOTORS 170 172
175 177 180
TATASTEEL 462 467
473 478 484
TECHM 810 817
821 829 833
TITAN 1,250 1,262
1,271 1,284 1,292
ULTRACEMCO 4,392 4,432
4,489 4,529 4,587
UPL 528 536
546 553 563
VEDANTA 140 142
144 146 147
WIPRO 241 242
245 246 249
YESBANK 37 38
39 40 41
ZEEL 231 240
246 255 261
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 10, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.co
m
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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