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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 09
, 2019
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Sensex (
532
) / Nifty
(1
)
On Monday, Nifty started on a mild positive note however the
rub-off effect from the previous session immediately pulled Index
lower. Subsequently, Index managed to hold on to the key
support levels to trigger an intraday bounce back. Eventually in
the penultimate hour Index once again witnessed a sell-off to end
with a loss of 0.43% at 11126.
On the daily chart, Index for the sixth consecutive session ended
in red and is now approaching the key levels at 11100-11060
which is a confluence zone formed by previous bullish breakout
level and 61.8% retracement level of the recent sharp upmove
(10670-11695). Going ahead, it will be crucial how Index reacts
around these crucial levels as a break below the same can open
doors for further weakness testing levels below 11000 mark. On
the flip side, previous support around 11250 can now act as an
immediate resistance. The volatility has certainly spiked up in the
last few sessions and hence traders are advised to be agile on
stock picking and avoid undue risk.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11100 Resistance 1 – 11180
Support 2 – 11060 Resistance 2 – 11250
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
277
67
)
In Monday's session, the BankNifty showed a pullback move in
the first hour of the trade and rallied higher by more than 400
points. The index then consolidated for most part of the session
and gave up all the gains in the last hour of the trade to end the
day back around the previous sessions close.
As mentioned in our previous report, the BankNifty has
retracement support around 27530 and as the momentum
readings on the lower time frame chart were in oversold zone, the
index showed some upmove in the opening hour on Monday.
However, the first hour strength was sold into due to lack of any
follow up move and thus the index gave up the intraday gains.
For near term, the 27530 is a crucial support which if breached,
could lead to a continuation of the negative momentum towards
27135. On the flipside,28185 will now be seen as an important
level which needs to be crossed to regain some momentum on
the upside.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 27530 Resistance 1 – 28185
Support 2 – 27135 Resistance 2 – 28400
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
Post last week sell-off, we began the week slightly
positive and we witnessed decent recovery in the initial
few hours. However, these gains were short-lived as we
witnessed fresh selling at higher levels. In the final hour
of trade, the selling aggravated and we concluded the
day with a cut of another 0.43%
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 494 cr. In index futures, they bought worth
Rs. 611 crores with fall in open interest, indicating short
covering took place on Monday’s session.
In the index futures segment, we witnessed a good
amount of short addition; especially in banking index
wherein open interest surged up nearly 73% last week.
Considering the price action, we believe the majority of
the positions formed were on the short side. On
Monday, we saw some short covering in BankNifty and
FIIs too covered few of their shorts. Such development
at the crucial support zone is indeed a good indication.
However, we would wait for some decent follow-up
short-covering in today's session before initiating any
fresh longs.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.45%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 11.68%
as market closed at 11126.40 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 35.60
points against a premium of 40.40 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
85.60 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 17.58 to 17.83.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 0.97 to 0.96.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are EXIDEIND, CONCOR, DISHTV, KOTAKBANK
and GLENMARK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
AUROPHARMA 19912000 28.50 459.80 -19.30
NATIONALUM 42890000 23.78 44.55 -0.81
TORNTPHARM 351500 16.01 1613.65 -1.82
BERGEPAINT 5242600 14.07 435.35 1.17
RAMCOCEM 1600800 8.51 700.15 -2.96
SIEMENS 1325500 8.22 1521.35 -0.83
NBCC 31484000 7.30 32.50 -1.80
IBULHSGFIN 22341600 6.77 234.30 -4.35
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 1498000 -8.63 1410.60 0.60
EQUITAS 11164000 -7.21 100.20 0.15
MFSL 2892000 -6.95 409.10 0.34
NCC 42680000 -6.68 47.10 -8.55
CENTURYTEX 2970600 -6.39 862.50 -0.91
IGL 3247750 -5.97 350.65 0.66
IOC 49413000 -5.89 148.70 -1.72
SAIL 80916000 -5.65 32.15 2.72
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.96 0.79
BANKNIFTY 0.68 0.85
RELIANCE 0.86 0.72
ICICIBANK 0.47 0.51
INFY 1.24 0.61
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
AUROPHARMA 105.11
GLENMARK 58.55
CONCOR 62.33
BHEL 64.13
PEL 76.04
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
1
26.40
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistic
s for
October
07
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3829.78 3219.24 610.54
163597 12858.46 (3.10)
INDEX
OPTIONS
184434.97 183668.41 766.56
700030 53546.45 0.64
STOCK
FUTURES
11881.12 11496.56 384.56
1556186 88375.39 (0.15)
STOCK
OPTIONS
4453.58 4492.88 (39.30) 61794 3328.40 8.05
Total 204599.45
202877.09
1722.36
2481607
158108.70
0.06
Turnover on
October
07
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
353760 23579.85 -29.92
INDEX
OPTIONS
11599049 770230.92 -10.54
STOCK
FUTURES
804670 40851.48 -12.47
STOCK
OPTIONS
605882 32014.25 -10.23
TOTAL 1,33,63,361
866676.50 -11.29
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 231.10
54.35 45.65 11154.35
Sell 11200 176.75
Buy 11100 231.10
99.05 100.95 11199.05
Sell 11300 132.05
Buy 11200 176.75
44.70 55.30 11244.70
Sell 11300 132.05
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 171.20
37.40 62.60 11062.60
Sell 11000 133.80
Buy 11100 171.20
68.15 131.85 11031.85
Sell 10900 103.05
Buy 11000 133.80
30.75 69.25 10969.25
Sell 10900 103.05
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 385 390
396 400 406
ASIANPAINT 1,704 1,714
1,729 1,739 1,754
AXISBANK 639 656
669 686 699
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,837 2,865
2,882 2,910 2,928
BAJFINANCE 3,754 3,827
3,893 3,966 4,032
BAJAJFINSV 8,090 8,155
8,255 8,320 8,420
BPCL 459 475
491 507 523
BHARTIARTL 332 337
342 347 351
INFRATEL 243 244
246 248 250
BRITANNIA 2,807 2,880
2,925 2,998 3,042
CIPLA 397 403
411 417 426
COALINDIA 180 182
185 187 190
DRREDDY 2,544 2,580
2,613 2,649 2,681
EICHERMOT 17,438 17,719
17,936 18,218 18,435
GAIL 127 129
131 132 134
GRASIM 625 637
646 658 666
HCLTECH 1,056 1,065
1,078 1,087 1,100
HDFCBANK 1,157 1,172
1,196 1,211 1,235
HDFC 1,943 1,956
1,976 1,990 2,010
HEROMOTOCO 2,577 2,626
2,655 2,703 2,732
HINDALCO 179 181
183 185 187
HINDUNILVR 1,908 1,924
1,944 1,959 1,979
ICICIBANK 405 411
417 423 429
IOC 145 147
149 151 153
INDUSINDBK 1,183 1,212
1,244 1,273 1,305
INFY 777 783
793 799 808
ITC 246 249
254 256 261
JSW STEEL 201 205
210 214 219
KOTAKBANK 1,522 1,539
1,566 1,583 1,610
LT 1,355 1,376
1,403 1,424 1,451
M&M 538 545
554 562 571
MARUTI 6,488 6,559
6,629 6,700 6,770
NESTLEIND 13,349 13,476
13,587 13,714 13,825
NTPC 113 114
116 118 119
ONGC 123 125
127 129 132
POWERGRID 193 195
196 198 199
RELIANCE 1,292 1,301
1,311 1,320 1,330
SBIN 243 246
250 253 256
SUNPHARMA 365 372
380 388 395
TCS 2,008 2,028
2,061 2,081 2,115
TATAMOTORS 114 116
118 120 122
TATASTEEL 314 319
329 334 344
TECHM 691 698
707 714 724
TITAN 1,231 1,245
1,255 1,269 1,280
ULTRACEMCO 3,755 3,813
3,911 3,968 4,067
UPL 567 574
583 590 600
VEDANTA 139 141
143 145 147
WIPRO 232 235
239 241 245
YESBANK 41 43
45 47 49
ZEEL 184 218
237 271 290
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cs[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]angelbroking.com
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