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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 09, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (22585)
Yesterday, the banking index opened on a flat to positive note, in
line with benchmark index. Without wasting much of a time, the
banking conglomerates resumed their Tuesday’s positivity to
gradually moved beyond the 23000 mark. Everything looked
hunky dory but all of a sudden the Bank Nifty took a nosedive at
the stroke of the penultimate hour and within no time, we were
considerably off highs. Eventually the index ended the session with
a nominal loss. Yesterday’s movement was very much on expected
lines as we saw Bank Nifty surpassing the barrier of 22500 during
Tuesday’s session. In fact, yesterday’s profit booking also precisely
started from the higher end of the ‘Bearish Wolfe Wave’ pattern.
But honestly speaking, we anticipated it to happen today, which
unfortunately happened in last hour. We have been advocating
booking profits in the ongoing rally since last 3-4 days, but despite
yesterday’s sharp down move, we would avoid taking a complete
bearish stance. Rather we would wait for further developments to
assess the situation. The daily candle resembles a ‘Shooting Star’,
which is generally considered a trend reversal pattern. But as
highlighted above, we would wait for follow through selling to
confirm it as an actual reversal of the trend. Meanwhile, traders are
advised to stay light and keep a track of 22500-22300 as supports
and 22800-23100 as immediate hurdles.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 22500 Resistance 1 – 22800
Support 2 – 22230 Resistance 2 – 23100
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (36329) / Nifty (10706)
Post opening on a flat note, Nifty traded in a narrow range for
most part of the session yesterday. However, it corrected sharply
in the last hour of the trade and ended the day with a loss of about
a percent.
In last couple of sessions, the Nifty has traded in a narrow range
while the Bank Nifty has shown relative outperformance. As
highlighted in our earlier report, post the recent sharp run up,
Nifty has now approached the resistance zone of 10800-11000
which coincides with the ‘200 DMA’. In the last hour yesterday, the
index witnessed a strong bout of profit booking and the BankNifty
index too gave up all the day’s gains from its resistance zone. Near
the important resistances, such bouts of profit booking are much
expected and hence, we have been advising recently to avoid
aggressive positions. The coming session would be crucial where
10630-10700 would be the support and if this gets breached,
then we could some extension of profit booking towards 10500.
On the flipside, 10850-11000 continues to be the resistance zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10700 Resistance 1 – 10850
Support 2 – 10630 Resistance 2 – 11000
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
In the first half yesterday, there were many stocks which continued
to provide good trading opportunities. Such opportunities may now
not be easy to spot and thus traders are advised to be vigilant on
the index movement today and avoid aggressive positions. However,
having said that, we would also like to mention that as of now there
are no signs of a trend reversal and next 2-3 sessions would be
important to determine the near term trend.
Technical & Derivatives Report
July 09, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10000
10100
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10800
10900
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
6/226/236/246/256/266/296/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/6 7/7
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
Nifty started on a flat note and traded in a range for
the major part. In the last hour however Index
corrected sharply to end with cuts of 0.87% tad above
10700 levels.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 995 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 1002 crores with increase in open interest
indicating long formations and short covering in
yesterday’s session
.
Post some consolidation during the session, the
indices witnessed some correction in the last hour of
trade and ended the day around 10700 mark. Nifty
witnessed unwinding of positions whereas fresh open
interest increase was seen in the Bank Nifty. FII's sold
equities in the cash segment whereas they were net
buyers in the index futures segment. In options
segment, 10800 call option added open interest
whereas put options witnessed unwinding of
positions. The above changes in the options segment
hints some signs of cautiousness for the weekly
expiry day
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.70%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.10%
as market closed at 10705.75 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 9.45 point
against a discount of 33 point in last trading session. The
August series closed at a discount of 7.65 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 25.10 to 26.10
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.63 to 1.37.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are GLENMARK, NTPC, ADANIPORTS,
JINDALSTEL, AND CONCOR.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CANBK 13940000 36.27 109.00 4.54
TATACHEM 3576000 29.57 312.50 0.05
SAIL 58064000 27.28 35.35 8.07
NATIONALUM 40732000 9.31 35.75 6.69
CONCOR 5647119 9.09 435.60 1.54
LICHSGFIN 9016000 9.05 281.75 1.29
SBIN 120543000 8.86 191.90 1.80
BALKRISIND 1256000 8.05 1256.60 -3.88
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
EQUITAS 13809200 -17.97 56.80 -4.30
M&MFIN 11917500 -14.37 201.70 -1.42
ESCORTS 2608100 -13.37 1088.10 -1.84
SRTRANSFIN 2490150 -12.37 757.90 3.65
APOLLOHOSP 917500 -10.66 1393.90 -1.54
BHEL 52584000 -9.93 41.25 -3.51
VOLTAS 3081000 -8.03 562.60 -2.15
ZEEL 20331000 -7.48 172.15 -4.83
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.37 0.94
BANKNIFTY 0.95 0.80
RELIANCE 0.71 0.61
ICICIBANK 0.54 0.47
INFY 0.83 0.66
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
NATIONALUM 56.28
SAIL 71.18
CUMMINSIND 43.96
ASIANPAINT 42.08
TATACONSUM 59.40
Technical & Derivatives Report
July 09, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10705.75
FII Statistics for July 08, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5661.64
4659.28
1002.36
106027
7686.32
8.95
INDEX
OPTIONS
377356.46
376434.77
921.69
765486
55683.68
5.17
STOCK
FUTURES
14790.67
15966.64
(1175.97) 1347186
90542.28
0.52
STOCK
OPTIONS
5201.77
5220.58
(18.81) 100200
6584.39
7.73
Total 403010.54
402281.27
729.27
2318899
160496.67
2.68
Turnover on July 08, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,53,828 36686.50 4.40
Index Options
3,01,94,557
17,74,131.42
37.19
Stock Futures 9,39,475 60650.57 0.93
Stock Options
10,85,299
73902.00 4.01
Total 3,27,73,159
19,45,370.49
33.29
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10700 242.75
51.50 48.50 10751.50
Sell 10800 191.25
Buy 10700 242.75
95.95 104.05 10795.95
Sell 10900 146.80
Buy 10800 191.25
44.45 55.55 10844.45
Sell 10900 146.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10700 248.80
42.35 57.65 10657.65
Sell 10600 206.45
Buy 10700 248.80
78.60 121.40 10621.40
Sell 10500 170.20
Buy 10600 206.45
36.25 63.75 10563.75
Sell 10500 170.20
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 09, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
333
337
343
347
354
ASIANPAINT 1,628 1,657
1,709
1,739
1,791
AXISBANK
428
436
449
457
469
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,767 2,810
2,854
2,897
2,942
BAJFINANCE 3,037 3,123
3,266
3,351
3,494
BAJAJFINSV 6,175 6,290
6,485
6,600
6,795
BPCL
369
374
381
385
392
BHARTIARTL
550
556
565
571
580
INFRATEL
215
217
221
223
227
BRITANNIA 3,593 3,639
3,676
3,722
3,758
CIPLA
623
629
638
644
654
COALINDIA
130
131
133
134
136
DRREDDY 3,774 3,830
3,887
3,944
4,001
EICHERMOT 18,812
19,102
19,601
19,891
20,390
GAIL
100
102
103
104
105
GRASIM
589
599
615
625
642
HCLTECH
559
567
581
589
603
HDFCBANK 1,094 1,102
1,113
1,122
1,133
HDFC 1,852 1,869
1,888
1,905
1,924
HEROMOTOCO
2,668
2,693
2,736
2,761
2,804
HINDALCO
150
152
155
158
161
HINDUNILVR 2,099 2,143
2,168
2,212
2,237
ICICIBANK
360
365
372
376
383
IOC
84
86
87
89
90
INDUSINDBK
509
531
554
576
600
INFY
765
770
777
782
790
ITC
192
194
196
198
200
JSW STEEL
185
190
196
201
207
KOTAKBANK 1,329 1,341
1,360
1,372
1,391
LT
921
931
948
958
974
M&M
537
544
556
563
575
MARUTI 5,888 5,966
6,101
6,179
6,313
NESTLEIND 16,483
16,643
16,896
17,056
17,309
NTPC
90
90
92
92
94
ONGC
80
81
82
82
84
POWERGRID
165
167
171
173
177
RELIANCE 1,763 1,780
1,808
1,825
1,853
SHREECEM 21,908
22,174
22,612
22,878
23,316
SBIN
184
188
193
197
202
SUNPHARMA
475
479
483
487
492
TCS 2,167 2,193
2,234
2,260
2,300
TATAMOTORS
100
103
107
109
113
TATASTEEL
323
329
338
343
352
TECHM
567
575
584
593
602
TITAN
960
976
1,002
1,018
1,044
ULTRACEMCO 3,708 3,747
3,816
3,855
3,924
UPL
427
436
450
458
473
VEDANTA
105
108
111
114
117
WIPRO
219
221
224
226
230
ZEEL
163
168
176
180
188
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 09, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com