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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 09, 2020
Nifty Bank
Outlook
-
27801
)
Following the news of RBI imposing moratorium on Yes Bank, the
banking sector witnessed a huge gap down opening.
Subsequently, the bank index then traded in a range and after a
modest recovery from the intraday lows, it ended with a loss of
3.52% tad around 27800 levels.
On Friday, the bank index tested the swing low of October at
27568 and the rising trend line support seen on the weekly chart
and ended just around it. The momentum is strongly gripped by
bears however some bounce from the lower levels is indicating
some exhaustion. Going ahead any bounce may face hurdle
around 28500 followed by 29135. Whereas on the flip side,
Friday's low at 27160 followed by the corporate tax cut day's low
of 26700 can act as immediate support. The volatility continues to
remain high and hence traders are advised to trade with proper
risk management.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 27160 Resistance 1 – 29000
Support 2 – 26700 Resistance 2 – 29285
Sensex (
37577)
/ Nifty
(1
0989
)
Two weeks back we were comfortably above 12000 and within
no time, benchmark index corrected nearly 10% and we are
standing tad below the 11000 mark. Things became gloomy
once the coronavirus started spreading outside china rapidly and
uncertainty with respect to this spooked market participants
across the globe. Throughout the week, we had some respite
after last Friday’s meltdown; but once again yet another Friday
turned out to be a nightmare as we grappled with global as well
as domestic worries. On Thursday night, RBI suspended ‘Yes
Bank’ board and put it under the moratorium for 30 days; this
triggered panic sort of situation in market participants and as a
result, we started the day with a massive plunge at the opening.
Fortunately for us, things did not worsen from there; in fact, a
modest recovery trimmed some portion of losses.
Now, let us see how charts are shaped up and what would be the
possible path of action for our markets in this week. Global
markets are surrounded with uncertainty related to Coronavirus
and hence, we need to see how markets react post weekend with
respect to this. Largely, the immediate direction would be dictated
by this development. Technically speaking, we can see bears
getting exhausted a bit after Friday’s massive knock at the
opening. We are seeing 11000 as a key support and we are
almost close to it. If things cool off a bit then we may see some
bounce back towards 11250 - 11400. However, surpassing
11400 is still a daunting task for the market.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
On the flipside,
108
00
followed by
107
00
can be seen as
immediate supports. Momentum traders are advised to stay light
and should ideally avoid taking undue risks. However, for
investors, such panic situation is an opportunity to grab some
marquee names for their portfolios.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10800 Resistance 1 – 11160
Support 2 – 10700 Resistance 2 – 11250
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 09, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10200
10400
10600
10800
11000
11200
11400
11600
11800
12000
12200
12400
,0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2-12 2-14 2-18 2-20 2-25 2-27 3-2 3-4 3-6
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Views
During last week, the indices consolidated in a
range till Thursday. However, the indices opened
with a huge gap down opening on Friday and it
corrected to end the week below the 11000 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 3595 crores. In index futures, they sold
worth Rs. 2982 crores with increase in open interest,
indicating short positions created inFriday’s session.
FII’s continued their selling streak as they sold equities
worth Rs. 10720 crores in the cash segment during last
week. They have added short positions in the index
futures segment as well and hence their ‘Long Short’
ratio is still quite low around 14.6%. India VIX spiked
further and has ended above the 25 mark. On the
options front, for the coming weekly expiry open
interest on the call side is scattered from 11200 to
11500, whereas 11000-10800 put options have
witnessed some open interest addition. The above data
still continues to depict a cautious picture and hence,
we continue with our advice for traders to stay light on
positions. The immediate supports as per the data are
around 10800 followed 10500.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 13.69%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.18%
as market closed at 10989 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a discount of 49.55
points against a discount of 24 points in last trading
session. The April series closed at a discount of 4.40
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 23.24 to 25.64.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.22 to 1.25.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, RECLTD, CESC, ICICIPRULI and
JINDALSTEL.
OI
Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PIDILITIND 2107500 12.31 1653.80 1.18
MINDTREE 1194400 -1.78 977.55 1.07
BAJAJ-AUTO 1954500 -5.28 2735.05 0.98
MARUTI 3082300 -1.36 6445.45 0.87
GAIL 34260282 -4.63 107.80 0.51
DIVISLAB 2238800 0.27 2240.05 0.48
SIEMENS 1927200 -2.42 1339.00 0.25
SHREECEM 158600 -1.43 23110.45 0.09
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
YESBANK 262680000 -11.11 16.15 -73.85
RBLBANK 20767500 24.81 258.90 -15.70
MFSL 3502200 31.99 520.80 -13.90
IBULHSGFIN 25988400 0.87 254.50 -11.66
PEL 2895948 -6.72 1302.40 -10.26
TATAMOTORS 97734700 6.12 114.20 -9.05
POWERGRID 52128000 -1.38 190.60 -7.54
NCC 42714000 -1.45 32.90 -7.45
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.25 0.71
BANKNIFTY 0.75 0.62
RELIANCE 0.45 0.39
ICICIBANK 0.47 0.57
INFY 0.52 0.54
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
YESBANK 658.28
RBLBANK 96.33
MFSL 93.50
IOC 45.82
EQUITAS 57.41
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 09, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
10989
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics
for March 06
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6752.45 9734.74 (2982.29) 244437 19223.31 15.71
INDEX
OPTIONS
146853.13 145662.92 1190.21
763112 60111.20 16.38
STOCK
FUTURES
17443.70 16680.42 763.28
1465141 87106.02 1.21
STOCK
OPTIONS
5524.58 5636.10 (111.52) 62321 3831.46 7.69
Total 176573.86
177714.18
(1140.32) 2535011
170271.99
6.85
Turnover
on
March 0
6
,
20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 563052 38643.19 7.67
Index Options 10060014 705078.81 -80.27
Stock Futures 880465 51013.16 -4.97
Stock Options 783127 49833.56 2.89
Total 1,22,86,658
844568.72 -77.25
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
11000 226.70
47.45 52.55 11047.45
Sell 11100 179.25
Buy 11000 226.70
88.40 111.60 11088.40
Sell 11200 138.30
Buy 11100 179.25
40.95 59.05 11140.95
Sell 11200 138.30
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11000 291.10
46.30 53.70 10953.70
Sell 10900 244.80
Buy 11000 291.10
84.10 115.90 10915.90
Sell 10800 207.00
Buy 10900 244.80
37.80 62.20 10862.20
Sell 10800 207.00
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 09, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 327 334
339 346 351
ASIANPAINT 1,816 1,847
1,866 1,896 1,915
AXISBANK 633 646
653 665 673
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,566 2,651
2,704 2,789 2,842
BAJFINANCE 3,965 4,096
4,167 4,297 4,368
BAJAJFINSV 8,318 8,460
8,543 8,685 8,768
BPCL 392 397
404 409 416
BHARTIARTL 506 513
518 525 530
INFRATEL 196 200
205 209 214
BRITANNIA 2,978 3,030
3,065 3,117 3,152
CIPLA 417 426
432 441 447
COALINDIA 163 166
169 172 176
DRREDDY 3,033 3,102
3,154 3,223 3,275
EICHERMOT 16,430 17,087
17,479 18,136 18,529
GAIL 100 104
106 110 113
GRASIM 634 650
660 676 686
HCLTECH 552 559
567 574 581
HDFCBANK 1,086 1,110
1,126 1,150 1,166
HDFC 2,064 2,087
2,116 2,139 2,168
HEROMOTOCO 1,938 1,988
2,021 2,071 2,103
HINDALCO 136 143
147 154 159
HINDUNILVR 2,109 2,149
2,199 2,240 2,290
ICICIBANK 467 477
487 496 506
IOC 98 99
101 102 103
INDUSINDBK 869 942
987 1,059 1,104
INFY 722 731
737 746 752
ITC 177 179
182 184 187
JSW STEEL 224 231
236 243 247
KOTAKBANK 1,579 1,605
1,624 1,651 1,670
LT 1,118 1,139
1,151 1,172 1,184
M&M 450 460
467 478 484
MARUTI 5,962 6,204
6,342 6,584 6,722
NESTLEIND 16,033 16,231
16,398 16,597 16,764
NTPC 101 103
105 107 109
ONGC 85 87
89 91 93
POWERGRID 186 188
190 193 195
RELIANCE 1,220 1,245
1,267 1,292 1,314
SBIN 246 258
266 279 287
SUNPHARMA 385 393
398 406 411
TCS 2,052 2,084
2,104 2,136 2,156
TATAMOTORS 110 112
115 117 119
TATASTEEL 341 346
352 358 364
TECHM 722 731
741 750 759
TITAN 1,209 1,226
1,236 1,253 1,264
ULTRACEMCO 3,940 4,054
4,124 4,237 4,307
UPL 482 498
507 523 533
VEDANTA 106 108
111 114 116
WIPRO 221 222
224 226 227
YESBANK - 3
18 31 46
ZEEL 209 215
223 229 237
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 09, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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