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March 08, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
35228)
Along with the broader markets, the bank nifty started with a gap
down opening on Friday, and intraday bounce got sold into to mark
an intraday low of 34893. Eventually, some bounce was seen during
the last hour to end with a loss of 1.60% at 35228.
During the last week, the bank index relatively underperformed as
compared to broader markets and then we witnessed a strong
upmove on Wednesday; this move however was not enough to fill
the bearish gap formed on the previous Friday. Now with the last two
session's sell-off, the bank index is back to the recent lower range.
The bank index is on a make or break level with strong support
around 34600 - 34700 levels and if it slips below it then we may see
some sharp correction in the short term. On the flip side, if the bank
index manages to hold the same then prices may remain in the range
with bounce back likely to face resistance around 35800 - 36500
levels. Traders are advised to keep a watch on these levels and trade
accordingly.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 34700 Resistance 1 – 35800
Support 2 – 34600 Resistance 2 – 36500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (50405) / Nifty (14938)
Market had a surprising gap down on previous Friday which was
followed by extended sell off throughout the day to drag the Nifty
towards 14500. The way it closed along with sharp uptick in ‘Volatility
Index (VIX)’, some decent correction was on cards. But again to surprise
everyone, markets had a gap up opening on Monday which was then
followed by a v-shaped recovery for the three consecutive sessions. In
the process, Nifty even managed to surpass the 15200 mark; however,
market was not done with its twist yet. Globally, markets had some
jittery moves which had a rub off effect on our bourses as well. In last
couple of sessions, we witnessed some correction to end the week with
nearly three percent gains but trimmed some portion to close below
15000.
It was a difficult week for momentum traders because the moment
markets tried to decide its direction; we tend to have some surprises.
Although, we did manage to recover well from previous Friday’s level,
market left us with some doubts. As far as levels are concerned, 15100
and 15273 are to be seen as immediate hurdles; whereas on the lower
side, 14760 – 14467 are to be seen as key supports. If we take a glance
at the weekly chart, we are still unsure whether market has enough
strength to go beyond recent highs around 15400 15550 without
seeing any decent price or time wise correction. But at the same time,
they are just refusing to fall as well. Hence, it would be interesting to
see how markets behave in the first half of this week. It should then
ideally give us some fair idea where markets are heading in the short
term. Traders are advised to focus on stock specific moves but should
.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sectorally, lot of themes did extremely well for the major part of the
week. But some of the pockets did cool off towards the end and ‘NIFTY
MIDCAP 50’ was clearly one of them after registering record highs.
Globally, commodities saw some decent correction and hence, it would
be interesting to see how this theme play out as well. Very importantly,
the financial space is placed at a crucial level and any weakness from
hereon would lead to short term breakdown in this pocket as well.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14800 Resistance 1 – 15100
Support 2 – 14760 Resistance2 – 15150
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2/12 2/17 2/19 2/23 2/25 3/1 3/3 3/5
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post previous Friday’s sharp sell-off, we began new
week with an upside gap tad above 14700 mark. As
the week progressed, index inched higher to breach
previous high of 15176.50 and eventually surpassed
the hurdle around 15200-15250 on Wednesday. On
account of global sell-off, we saw some rub-off effect
in our market as well and hence, index slipped below
14900. Eventually, we concluded the week with the
gains of almost 3%
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 223 crores. In Index Future segment, they again sold
worth Rs. 2265 crores with good amount of rise in open
interest indicating fresh short formation
.
In F&O space, both Nifty as well as BankNifty added
huge open interest and we believe majority of the
positions formed are on short side. Stronger hands
too preferred adding shorts in index futures segment,
resulting Long Short Ratio declining to 56% from
61% WoW. At current juncture, 15000-15100 shall act
as a strong hurdle; whereas, immediate support is
placed around 14800 mark
. Considering recent
development, we believe traders should stay light in
index and prefer stock specific approach.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.80%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 6.58%
as market closed at 14938.10 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 14.95
point against a premium of 53.25 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 94.95
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 24.15 to 25.56.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.23 to 1.12.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are BANKBARODA, JINDALSTEL, VEDL, ITC and
TATAPOWER.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
WIPRO 38860800 30.52 420.85 -4.22
APOLLOHOSP 1715500 21.45 2879.60 -5.45
CUMMINSIND 1740000 18.27 853.70 -5.16
SUNTV 13438500 11.35 506.10 -1.32
SHREECEM 130100 8.69 27848.60 -2.58
MINDTREE 1214400 7.51 1725.10 -1.02
POWERGRID 14924000 7.15 220.25 -2.38
MARICO 8446000 6.83 401.55 -1.51
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BANKBARODA 126991800 -14.34 80.65 -3.43
BHEL 121065000 -14.03 52.45 -3.76
IBULHSGFIN 33746600 -9.83 231.60 -4.83
RECLTD 17622000 -9.18 143.05 -2.09
SAIL 120973000 -8.74 72.10 -6.01
MARUTI 2699800 -8.04 7248.95 1.51
AARTIIND 395675 -8.00 1257.75 -3.16
PNB 245840000 -7.87 41.70 -4.47
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.12 0.94
BANKNIFTY 0.69 0.98
RELIANCE 0.41 0.37
ICICIBANK 0.46 0.55
INFY 0.65 0.41
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CONCOR 50.72
CUMMINSIND 44.71
GMRINFRA 53.25
APOLLOTYRE 57.65
TORNTPOWER 40.71
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14935.10
FII Statistics for March 05, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
5714.59 5646.86 67.73
145004 15614.55 6.57
INDEX
OPTIONS
329777.64 329648.49 129.15
826940 88049.80 18.44
STOCK
FUTURES
15545.30 15842.21 (296.91) 1167798 101789.36 (0.07)
STOCK
OPTIONS
16022.00 16202.26 (180.26) 146658 12674.39 6.09
Total 367059.53
367339.82
(280.29) 2286400
218128.10
6.79
Turnover on March 05, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,63,475 45878.18 -4.11
Index Options
2,29,40,804
22,83,806.02 -75.40
Stock Futures 8,04,056 76037.27 -2.78
Stock Options
15,74,683
1,51,149.32 10.67
Total 2,57,83,018
25,56,870.79 -76.36
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15000 329.40
48.60 51.40 15048.60
Sell 15100 280.80
Buy 15000 329.40
96.10 103.90 15096.10
Sell 15200 233.30
Buy 15100 280.80
47.50 52.50 15147.50
Sell 15200 233.30
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15100 337.10
46.45 53.55 14853.55
Sell 15000 297.10
Buy 15100 337.10
82.55 117.45 14817.45
Sell 14900 258.50
Buy 15000 297.10
36.10 63.90 14763.90
Sell 14900 258.50
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
716
733
747
763
777
ASIANPAINT 2,349 2,368
2,396
2,415
2,443
AXISBANK
708
719
732
743
755
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,771 3,812
3,863
3,903
3,954
BAJFINANCE 5,338 5,391
5,456
5,509
5,573
BAJAJFINSV 9,745 9,852
10,006
10,113
10,267
BPCL
448
455
465
471
481
BHARTIARTL
518
525
532
539
546
BRITANNIA 3,440 3,466
3,486
3,512
3,532
CIPLA
794
800
806
811
818
COALINDIA
148
150
151
153
154
DIVISLAB 3,452 3,475
3,512
3,535
3,572
DRREDDY 4,436 4,464
4,512
4,540
4,588
EICHERMOT 2,520 2,554
2,594
2,628
2,668
GAIL
142
144
147
150
153
GRASIM 1,297 1,318
1,345
1,366
1,393
HCLTECH
914
928
950
964
986
HDFCBANK 1,508 1,519
1,532
1,543
1,557
HDFCLIFE
704
711
718
724
731
HDFC 2,493 2,518
2,549
2,575
2,606
HEROMOTOCO 3,352 3,407
3,449
3,504
3,547
HINDALCO
325
331
340
346
354
HINDUNILVR 2,161 2,181
2,195
2,216
2,230
ICICIBANK
595
602
609
616
622
IOC
100
101
102
103
104
INDUSINDBK
991
1,016
1,050
1,074
1,108
INFY 1,286 1,301
1,321
1,336
1,356
ITC
206
207
209
210
211
JSW STEEL
396
401
408
413
419
KOTAKBANK 1,846 1,884
1,906
1,945
1,967
LT 1,422 1,443
1,460
1,481
1,498
M&M
824
832
847
855
869
MARUTI 6,966 7,108
7,211
7,353
7,456
NESTLEIND 16,309
16,546
16,693
16,930
17,077
NTPC
106
107
110
111
114
ONGC
111
113
116
118
120
POWERGRID
215
218
222
224
229
RELIANCE 2,122 2,151
2,181
2,209
2,240
SBILIFE
884
894
905
914
925
SHREECEM 27,008
27,428
28,161
28,582
29,315
SBIN
369
376
386
393
402
SUNPHARMA
600
606
613
618
625
TCS 2,956 2,982
3,023
3,049
3,089
TATAMOTORS
309
317
328
335
346
TATASTEEL
710
722
739
751
768
TECHM
942
951
966
975
990
TITAN 1,446 1,460
1,476
1,491
1,507
ULTRACEMCO 6,561 6,686
6,815
6,940
7,069
UPL
568
580
598
610
628
WIPRO
403
412
426
435
449
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com