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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 07
, 2019
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Sensex (
) / Nifty
(1
1175
)
During the last week, trading started with a downside gap and it
probably set the mood for the entire week. The mounting
concerns over NBFCs started spooking traders’ sentiments which
was fuelled by massive sell off in US markets during the midweek.
On Tuesday as well as Friday, despite early morning lead, our
markets succumbed to the selling pressure and eventually went
on to slide below the 11200 mark. On a weekly basis, index shed
nearly 3 percent which was biggest weekly fall in last couple of
months.
Exactly two weeks ago, everybody was so ecstatic, jubilant after
FM’s announcement on slashing the corporate taxes. This
triggered colossal two-day rally in our market to take a giant
leap. Who would have thought then, we will again have to
undergo that similar pain that we have been witnessing since last
12 15 months. The Nifty wiped off 50% gains in last eight
trading sessions; whereas the Bank Nifty and Midcap 50 indices
have lost more than 70%, which is really annoying. There were
some hopes built for better days for our markets and last couple
of weeks have poured complete water on it. Now for Nifty, we are
placed at a crucial junction and probably a last ray of hope for
bulls. The current position of Nifty converges with multiple key
evidences. Firstly as we highlighted the 50% retracement of the
recent up move which coincides with the ’20 SMA’ on daily chart
and more importantly, the previous breakout zone of 11200
11100, which now ideally should act as a sheet anchor support
for the Nifty.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
27732
)
During last week, the BankNifty index corrected on all the four
trading sessions wherein the important support levels were
breached as the index ended with a loss of over 7 percent. Post
the recent sharp upmove in two sessions, it initially seemed that
the index is showing some retracement move of the sharp
bounce. However, during the week, the index witnessed
significant selling pressure and the important supports of moving
averages as well some of the retracement levels were breached
with no respite. This indicates complete dominance by the bears
and thus, it is better to be light on positions in this highly volatile
trading environment. The momentum readings on the lower time
frame charts are in oversold zone which could lead to some
pullback move in this week, but whether that would resume the
positive momentum is a difficult call to take at this moment.
Traders are advised to keep a tab on the support levels around
27530 followed by 27135, while the resistances are now seen in
the around 28400 and 28750.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 27530 Resistance 1 – 28400
Support 2 – 27135 Resistance 2 – 28750
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Let see how market behaves around it in the forthcoming week
and be hopeful to have some positive development. As far as
levels are concerned, below 11100 we may see selling getting
aggravated and on the flipside, a resumption of uptrend
should only happen if Nifty manages to sustain above 11400.
Traders are advised to keep a tab of all the above mentioned
levels and should ideally avoid taking undue risks.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11100 Resistance 1 – 11250
Support 2 – 11060 Resistance 2 – 11300
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October 07
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
Last week, we witnessed decent selling pressure from
11500-11550 and as the week progressed, pull backs
were being sold into with formation of fresh shorts. We
breached important supports of 11350-11400 and
then 11200-11250 as well.
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 683 cr. In index futures, they sold worth Rs. 725
crores with rise in open interest, indicating formation of
short positions.
In index futures segment, we witnessed good amount of
short addition; especially in banking index wherein
open interest surged up nearly 73% within a week.
Considering the price action, we believe majority for
the positions formed are on short side. At present, we
have concluded the week at very important support and
hence, it is very important to see the development in
coming week before initiating any aggressive positions.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.83%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 4.39% as
market closed at 11174.75 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 40.40
points against a premium of 47.80 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
88.60 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 17.70 to 17.58.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.01 to 0.97.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are NESTLEIND, EQUITAS, BAJAJFINSV, MFSL
and BHARTIARTL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RAMCOCEM 1475200 11.49 722.30 -0.56
JUSTDIAL 2340800 10.00 612.75 -7.74
CANBK 13490000 9.78 180.00 -0.66
COLPAL 1599500 8.29 1445.90 -2.98
UJJIVAN 8008000 8.26 309.70 -0.61
PIDILITIND 3017000 7.25 1367.85 -1.56
IBULHSGFIN 20924800 7.03 245.25 -12.28
IGL 3454000 6.44 347.90 -1.03
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 1639500 -11.93 1400.45 1.33
TORNTPHARM 303000 -7.06 1630.55 1.79
CESC 1515200 -6.52 731.65 -2.28
YESBANK 201238400 -6.27 42.15 -0.94
CHOLAFIN 2647500 -6.20 289.65 -0.45
TORNTPOWER 3333000 -5.12 279.80 -1.66
SRF 876000 -4.58 2667.95 -2.39
COALINDIA 34084600 -4.33 185.80 -0.35
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.97 0.82
BANKNIFTY 0.60 0.88
RELIANCE 0.87 0.77
ICICIBANK 0.46 0.45
INFY 1.28 0.46
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
JUSTDIAL 55.35
UBL 45.33
ICICIPRULI 37.45
MFSL 35.95
DRREDDY 27.91
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October 07
, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
174.75
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
0
4
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4914.14 5638.95 (724.81) 168832 13160.12 1.25
INDEX
OPTIONS
220248.87 219321.54 927.33
695606 53132.86 21.29
STOCK
FUTURES
14194.56 14065.36 129.20
1558528 89043.98 (0.46)
STOCK
OPTIONS
4710.30 4802.19 (91.89) 57190 3059.64 11.08
Total 244067.87
243828.04
239.83
2480156
158396.60
5.21
Turnover on
October
0
4
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
496144 33647.03 24.58
INDEX
OPTIONS
12623529 861004.31 -67.94
STOCK
FUTURES
882539 46669.66 3.72
STOCK
OPTIONS
634282 35662.06 3.84
TOTAL 1,46,36,494
976983.06 -65.01
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 212.35
50.45 49.55 11250.45
Sell 11300 161.90
Buy 11200 212.35
90.00 110.00 11290.00
Sell 11400 122.35
Buy 11300 161.90
39.55 60.45 11339.55
Sell 11400 122.35
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 195.50
42.65 57.35 11157.35
Sell 11100 152.85
Buy 11200 195.50
74.55 125.45 11125.45
Sell 11000 120.95
Buy 11100 152.85
31.90 68.10 11068.10
Sell 11000 120.95
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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October 07
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 384 389
398 404 413
ASIANPAINT 1,690 1,707
1,734 1,752 1,779
AXISBANK 636 646
662 672 688
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,805 2,834
2,885 2,914 2,965
BAJFINANCE 3,822 3,863
3,933 3,975 4,045
BAJAJFINSV 8,074 8,187
8,364 8,478 8,655
BPCL 491 503
524 537 557
BHARTIARTL 326 333
341 347 355
INFRATEL 243 244
247 248 251
BRITANNIA 2,774 2,810
2,871 2,906 2,967
CIPLA 407 413
422 428 437
COALINDIA 179 182
186 189 193
DRREDDY 2,555 2,586
2,643 2,674 2,730
EICHERMOT 17,470 17,735
18,122 18,386 18,773
GAIL 128 130
132 134 136
GRASIM 630 642
662 674 694
HCLTECH 1,058 1,069
1,075 1,086 1,092
HDFCBANK 1,151 1,170
1,205 1,224 1,259
HDFC 1,945 1,962
1,989 2,006 2,034
HEROMOTOCO 2,625 2,647
2,681 2,703 2,737
HINDALCO 179 181
183 185 187
HINDUNILVR 1,915 1,930
1,954 1,968 1,992
ICICIBANK 401 408
418 425 436
IOC 144 148
151 154 157
INDUSINDBK 1,233 1,249
1,271 1,287 1,309
INFY 782 788
793 798 803
ITC 250 254
259 262 267
JSW STEEL 206 210
217 222 228
KOTAKBANK 1,508 1,536
1,585 1,612 1,661
LT 1,386 1,405
1,440 1,459 1,494
M&M 545 555
565 574 584
MARUTI 6,477 6,563
6,705 6,791 6,932
NESTLEIND 13,067 13,254
13,523 13,710 13,979
NTPC 114 116
118 120 122
ONGC 124 127
130 132 135
POWERGRID 193 195
197 199 202
RELIANCE 1,289 1,298
1,314 1,323 1,338
SBIN 241 246
253 257 265
SUNPHARMA 378 382
388 392 398
TCS 2,041 2,060
2,074 2,093 2,107
TATAMOTORS 116 118
121 123 126
TATASTEEL 323 328
336 342 350
TECHM 697 703
708 714 719
TITAN 1,199 1,225
1,266 1,292 1,333
ULTRACEMCO 3,827 3,903
4,043 4,120 4,260
UPL 565 574
589 598 614
VEDANTA 140 142
144 146 149
WIPRO 234 236
238 240 243
YESBANK 38 40
43 45 48
ZEEL 220 228
241 250 262
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Technical &
Derivatives Report
October 07
, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
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