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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 07, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (22199)
Our markets have been unstoppable since last few days, however
the banking index seems to have taken a pause and again, it
started underperforming the benchmark index. Yesterday also
after a good head start, although the broader market was buzzing,
the banking index cooled off from higher levels and eventually
erased some portion of gains.
As per our weekly commentary, we have advocated lightening up
positions (in index) in the ongoing rally, at least for momentum
traders. But by no means, we advice going short, because the
overall momentum in the broader market is extremely strong. In
fact, the Bank Nifty is standing at an interesting point. A breakout
beyond 22500 would trigger a strong upward bias to push the
entire markets higher from the current levels as well. However, in
case if Bank Nifty slides and stays below 21700, this will apply
brakes on the ongoing momentum and then the banking space
would be the first one to experience strong profit booking. Hence,
next couple days would be quite crucial for our markets.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 22000 Resistance 1 – 22350
Support 2 – 21700 Resistance 2 – 22500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (36487) / Nifty (10764)
Following the positive cues from the Asian bourses, our markets
started trading for the week with a gap up above the 10700 mark.
The index continued the momentum and tested 10800 as well
during the day, before settling with gains of about one and a half
percent at 10764.
The indices continued its northward journey and rallied to test the
10800 mark yesterday. Although the index traded within a range
post the gap up opening, the biasness was clearly positive as
stocks from the broader markets witnessed good momentum
throughout the day. Many stocks from the cash segment
witnessed sharp upmoves supported by higher volumes, thus
providing good opportunities for traders. If we look at the index,
Nifty has now approached the resistance zone of 10800-11000
which coincides with the ‘200 SMA’ on the daily chart. However,
so far, there are no signs of reversal and hence, one should avoid
taking any contra bet. With yesterday’s gap, 10700-10630 will
now be seen as the immediate support for the index.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10700 Resistance 1 – 10830
Support 2 – 10630 Resistance 2 – 10900
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The Nifty Midcap50 index has surpassed its swing high and its ‘200
SMA’, indicating that stocks from the midcap space could continue
to provide good opportunities for momentum traders. Hence,
traders are advised to look for stock specific opportunities at the
moment. Also, it is advisable not to carry heavy positions overnight
till we surpass the immediate hurdle of 11000.
Technical & Derivatives Report
July 07, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10000
10100
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10800
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/6
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
The week started with a gap up opening and with
positive momentum throughout the session ended
with gains of 1.47% 10764.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 348 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 704 crores with increase in open interest
indicating long formations and some short covering in
yesterday’s upmove
.
In yesterday's session, Nifty witnessed formation of
long positions whereas open interest decline was seen
in the Bank Nifty, indicating unwinding of positions.
FII's were net buyers in the cash segment as well as the
index futures segment and their 'Long Short Ratio' now
stands around 56 percent. In options segment,
unwinding was seen in 10600-10700 call options post
the gap up opening, whereas 10700 & 10600 put
options added fresh open interest. Thus, for the next
few sessions, 10700-10600 will be seen as important
support whereas index could approach the level of
11000
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.76%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 6.66%
as market closed at 10763.65 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 8.8 point
against a discount of 34.9 point in last trading session.
The August series closed at a discount of 10.9 point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 25.77 to 25.19
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.50
to 1.60.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are GLENMARK, GMRINFRA, NATIONALUM,
NMDC AND GODREJCP.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CUMMINSIND 2056800 23.58 431.15 5.12
CENTURYTEX 2809800 18.41 318.10 4.11
NCC 22764000 14.35 32.10 5.74
SRF 603250 14.14 3850.40 5.98
TATAMOTORS 93195000 8.78 109.00 5.49
PNB 55580000 8.32 37.10 3.47
BHEL 69006000 7.84 43.55 12.50
BAJAJFINSV 830000 7.18 6284.90 2.49
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IBULHSGFIN 13726800 -19.97 231.80 0.26
TATASTEEL 16228200 -8.89 338.90 3.94
MARICO 12748000 -8.13 352.10 -2.06
MINDTREE 1762400 -7.75 960.60 2.38
MUTHOOTFIN 3048750 -7.42 1134.35 -1.17
SAIL 51243000 -6.61 31.85 3.24
IDEA 328580000 -6.49 9.80 -2.49
GODREJPROP 414700 -6.45 891.95 -0.47
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.60 0.92
BANKNIFTY 0.83 0.83
RELIANCE 0.80 0.55
ICICIBANK 0.50 0.45
INFY 0.83 0.58
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BHEL 71.91
M&M 54.21
CUMMINSIND 43.79
SRF 58.47
BAJFINANCE 75.60
Technical & Derivatives Report
July 07, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10763.65
FII Statistics for July 06, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4169.16
3464.83
704.33
102135
7455.59
4.78
INDEX
OPTIONS
154547.95
153741.95
806.00
692546
50675.62
15.80
STOCK
FUTURES
12409.28
12001.01
408.27
1334486
89603.86
0.70
STOCK
OPTIONS
4810.01
4826.38
(16.37) 88740
5836.82
4.65
Total 175936.40
174034.17
1902.23
2217907
153571.89
5.34
Turnover on July 06, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,27,108 28235.46 5.80
Index Options
1,45,06,728
8,88,492.48 32.81
Stock Futures 7,26,482 49193.00 5.40
Stock Options
8,80,713 64259.36 27.16
Total 1,65,41,031
10,30,180.30
29.93
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10800 219.05
48.45 51.55 10848.45
Sell 10900 170.60
Buy 10800 219.05
90.50 109.50 10890.50
Sell 11000 128.55
Buy 10900 170.60
42.05 57.95 10942.05
Sell 11000 128.55
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10800 266.35
43.40 56.60 10756.60
Sell 10700 222.95
Buy 10800 266.35
79.40 120.60 10720.60
Sell 10600 186.95
Buy 10700 222.95
36.00 64.00 10664.00
Sell 10600 186.95
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 07, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
351
355
361
365
370
ASIANPAINT 1,684 1,697
1,704
1,717
1,724
AXISBANK
428
431
434
437
441
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,847 2,872
2,909
2,934
2,971
BAJFINANCE 2,887 2,998
3,066
3,177
3,246
BAJAJFINSV 6,096 6,190
6,256
6,350
6,416
BPCL
379
385
391
396
402
BHARTIARTL
566
571
580
586
595
INFRATEL
221
224
226
229
231
BRITANNIA 3,499 3,562
3,604
3,667
3,709
CIPLA
621
628
636
643
651
COALINDIA
134
135
136
137
138
DRREDDY 3,840 3,866
3,903
3,929
3,966
EICHERMOT 18,733
18,992
19,331
19,590
19,929
GAIL
102
103
104
105
106
GRASIM
617
629
641
653
666
HCLTECH
570
574
582
586
593
HDFCBANK 1,088 1,095
1,108
1,115
1,128
HDFC 1,836 1,852
1,881
1,897
1,926
HEROMOTOCO
2,691
2,731
2,755
2,795
2,819
HINDALCO
144
149
152
157
160
HINDUNILVR 2,138 2,150
2,165
2,177
2,192
ICICIBANK
356
359
363
366
371
IOC
86
87
88
89
90
INDUSINDBK
484
490
499
505
515
INFY
753
759
767
772
780
ITC
197
199
200
202
203
JSW STEEL
188
191
193
196
198
KOTAKBANK 1,350 1,359
1,370
1,379
1,390
LT
940
945
952
958
965
M&M
519
545
559
585
599
MARUTI 5,843 5,983
6,065
6,206
6,288
NESTLEIND 16,622
16,712
16,777
16,867
16,932
NTPC
94
95
95
96
97
ONGC
82
83
84
85
86
POWERGRID
175
176
178
179
180
RELIANCE 1,768 1,810
1,834
1,876
1,900
SHREECEM 22,695
22,903
23,059
23,267
23,423
SBIN
184
186
188
190
192
SUNPHARMA
468
474
478
484
487
TCS 2,181 2,222
2,246
2,287
2,311
TATAMOTORS
102
106
108
111
113
TATASTEEL
326
332
337
344
348
TECHM
566
574
581
589
596
TITAN
986
1,000
1,010
1,024
1,034
ULTRACEMCO 3,887 3,909
3,927
3,949
3,967
UPL
440
448
454
463
469
VEDANTA
104
107
109
112
115
WIPRO
218
220
224
226
229
ZEEL
169
172
175
178
181
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 07, 2020
*
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com